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Norion on 13 July 2023
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Shatts said:
Norion said:

I don't see how the Switch 2 will cause enough of an impact since the PS5 will have sold 5-6m by the time it comes out and I can't see how it doesn't do another few million afterwards.

Even with a conservative 4.6m LTD by the end of this year an average of just 1m for the next 5 years is enough to beat the PS4 which seems easy unless the PS6 is a 2027 release.

Well the PS5 needs to outsell the PS4 by more than 3 million to pass the Wii. I don't think it can do that. The PS5 should be at its peak right now, but demand hasn't increased as much. I don't think any future software will drastically change the demand either. The only possibility is that the demand in China sees an increase and more units are sold to the grey market. It might outsell the PS4, but the 3 million difference seems very far away. 
Oh maybe you're only talking about PS5 selling more than the PS4.

Yeah I'm only talking about that. It won't reach the Wii of course.

archbrix said:
Norion said:

I don't see how the Switch 2 will cause enough of an impact since the PS5 will have sold 5-6m by the time it comes out and I can't see how it doesn't do another few million afterwards.

Even with a conservative 4.6m LTD by the end of this year an average of just 1m for the next 5 years is enough to beat the PS4 which seems easy unless the PS6 is a 2027 release.

The PS5 currently is in one of its biggest years though and it continues to struggle against the current Switch in Japan. Final Fantasy launch week didn't even see the PS5 come out ahead. Meanwhile, the aging Switch still has Mario Wonder, which will surely sell as high as Mario is in the game, as well as titles that will sustain its sales.

It's that continued support and interest in the current Switch as well as the big yearly decline I think we'll see for PS5 once Switch 2 arrives that might keep the PS5 from the numbers you're projecting. If 2023-2024 is the PS5's peak as many believe, what are sales going to look like in Japan as they naturally decline against Switch 2 starting its (presumably) winning run? Maybe all of the exporting will help but I just don't expect a big enough interest for the PS5 in Japan going forward.

The issue is by the time the Switch 2 comes out the PS5 will already be at 5-6m. It'd have to kinda fall off a cliff to not reach 9.5m the following few years especially if this is a longer generation. I don't see why the Switch 2's success would cause that when it's able to sell as well as it is currently despite the current Switch having an amazing stretch right now. It's not like the Switch's 2021 and 2022 were why the PS5's first couple years weren't good, if there was ample stock then it would've sold perfectly fine despite the Switch doing amazing then.