I think a sale through around 3M is more than fair in this scenario. It'll experience growth over the release of Pikmin 3 Deluxe but I don't see exploding in any way unless there quite a chunk of the market suddenly attempting to get into the franchise with this entry.

Personally, this franchise feels like what I experienced with Luigi's Mansion 3. Game's gonna be good, polish, sound and all but I fear I'll simply won't be enthusiast by its gameplay loop

I'm curious for the 10 folks who have chosen the "Over 5 million" option, which by the way is winning the poll, how much over 5 million do you think this title will sell?

not sure if this is how he meant it but, sometimes people say "i fear" in a positive way, paradoxically. it's kind of a gen-z thing, though i have no clue how old the OP is lol.

OT: i chose 3.5-4 million. i see 4 million as the ceiling and would be very surprised if it surpasses that.

as a side, i think it's funny nintendo was chalking up pikmin as their new pokemon in the beginning. yeah, they're both cute... but that's kinda the end of the comparison. pikmin was never going to be a genre that had massive success. i don't think we've ever seen anything in the RTS genre among consoles that's blown up in that way...?

anyway, nintendo clearly wants this to do well and it's finally on a system where it can actually y'know... perform at all. the marketing is there and the game seems like it's trying to appeal to a wider audience in the new features added. i've also seen a lot of buzz for it on tiktok, for what it's worth.

wondering what the people who chose 5 million+ are thinking...? any reasoning for that?

I think about 3-3.5m seems fair. I don't think this is a series that will get a huge boost in sales just because it's on the Switch, but it will still do pretty well. I think 3-3.5m would make it the best-selling game in the series anyway, so definitely not too shabby.

I picked 2 - 2.5M. I'm aware that this is probably a bit pessimistic and Switch's software sales were always a bit better than I've expected...

What?  I don't remember this ever being Nintendo's stance on these titles.  Care to share a link?

Well I chose around 3 million, but perhaps people thought 5 million+ since the Pikmin shorts video got a lot of views. There's definitely some buzz around it and it does have potential to do more than 5 million, it's finally on a system with great install base. I already made this comment, but Kirby was also averaging 1 to 2 million, and it had a lot of fan outside of the games with the Kirby Cafe being popular, the anime, etc. Recently, their newest mainline game passed a record high at 6 million. 

I personally chose 3-4 million because the game genre is niche, and despite the popularity in its characters, it doesn't mean people are interested in the games. Pikmin bloom, and 3 Deluxe sales proves it.

welp, i can't actually find where i heard that info so i guess it's fake news. makes sense as it would be a crazily hopeful thought.

agreed with all the above. kirby definitely has a higher ceiling on potential sales purely because of its genre. also, i'd argue that despite the growing popularity of pikmin as a character, kirby is still much more popular in the cultural zeitgeist.