There are rumors Switch 2 dev kits are already out there. Not saying these are reliable but not hard to believe either. Sharp is making LCDs for a new games console. Sure that could be just another handheld from a laptop maker. The Nintendo does work with Sharp and while LCD it would cut costs. We do know the Tegra T239 exists and nothing is using it and it's a modified Orin chip. Only the latter seems more definitive that Switch 2 is closer than some want to admit. But as I said before if there is no Direct next week or by mid-July. That means the rest of the year is dry and Nintendo is gearing up to release new hardware.

A week or so after posting this, Nintendo has now announced their next direct for June. See? Consistent. 

This could be an ending moment for the Switch 2 in 2024 crowd depending on the content of the upcoming direct 

I don't see why it would be one way or another. The direct is going to focus on 2023 Switch titles, it's basically their standard "E3 or E3 equivalent" event they do every year. You're not going to get a lot out of them regarding 2024 there I doubt. 

You mean like the one they didn't do last year appart of the Xenoblade 3 Direct ?

These things are uncertain now especially because a lot of people stated the 2nd part of the year would be quite light on content since there was an increasingly absence of news.

Now it'll be time to see what this 2nd half of the year reserves. If we see Nintendo releasing another slew of good sized titles, I'm guessing the successor might not be in the immediate plans of the company.

You'll probably see a 2D Mario which I've been saying for like a year now and some other games, but I don't think that means anything much either one way or another. 

A new 2D Mario is years overdue at this point and it makes no sense to not have a new Mario game in the year you have a Mario movie. 

There's no reason for software development so dramatically fall apart with the Switch as it did with the DS/Wii because with the DS/Wii they had to launch both the 3DS and Wii U in a short window of time, so to keep developing Wii games for example while you're also working on 3DS launch and 2nd wave games AND Wii U launch titles was really difficult I'm sure (same with late stage GameCube, because they had to start making Nintendo DS and Wii software). 

That shouldn't be as big of a problem now that Nintendo is not launching two entirely discreet hardware platforms within 18-24 months of each other anymore. If there was no 3DS for example and it was just straight Wii to Wii U, you probably would have seen a much smoother transition for both consoles (Wii having more late gen titles, and Wii U having more software early on as well). 

This actually was the case before handheld development became such a big time suck for Nintendo, with the DS effectively it was basically like having another console, it needed its own 3D Mario Kart, Zelda, 2D Mario, etc. etc. games whereas the Game Boy, Nintendo wasn't even supporting it much by the mid-90s (Pokemon being a break out title coming from out of nowhere). But you look at the SNES, it had an extremely strong late product cycle, Killer Instinct, Yoshi's Island, Donkey Kong Country 2 all in fall 1995 (possibly to this day Nintendo's greatest holiday lineup ever), then Super Mario RPG in spring 1996 and then N64 launched in summer/fall 1996 with Super Mario 64, Pilotwings 64, Wave Race 64, Killer Instinct Gold, Star Wars: Shadows of the Empire, and even Mario Kart 64 (for Japan) all in 1996. 

That's a great transition, unfortunately the N64 got labelled a drought machine not because Nintendo's software releases were lacking but because the cartridge only decision killed the system's supporting 3rd party flow of games. 

The whole point of Nintendo's recent restructuring of their software development department, and the unification of their hardware lines with Switch, was to ensure a consistent flow of games and end the droughts that dogged their previous systems.

New Switch games being announced for later this year or even early 2024 in no way means Switch 2 won't be arriving next year, just as Pokemon Sun and Moon launching at the end of 2016 didn't mean Switch wasn't imminent.

Now that we know a new 2D Mario is on the way, in the same year that the Mario Movie exploded onto screens, I've got to change my opinion.  I think Switch 2 is more likely to release in 2025 instead of 2024 now.

A Mario game for the holidays of the same year they launched the Mario movie was always a given, I've been saying it for months on this board, even right down to them not wanting to show it before the Mario movie because you don't want kids doing the whole "I saw the new Mario game has Elephant Mario! Why isn't Elephant Mario in the movie?" type thing, they wanted the movie to have all the Mario spotlight to itself for the first half of the year. Of course you have to have a new Mario game in a year you have the first (real) Mario movie, it's a monumental event for Nintendo.

The rest of the line up is actually a lot of remasters and C-tier franchise installments. Wario Ware? The last one didn't even hit 2 million in sales. The Detective Pikachu series that no one really cares that much about but somehow was turned into a Ryan Reynolds movie? The first game has to be one of the lowest selling Pokemon branded games ever at sub 1 million sales. Luigi's Mansion 2 3DS Remaster? Feels like the 3DS getting a Luigi's Mansion 1 port late in its life cycle. More Pikmin remasters? Mario RPG Remaster is cool for nostalgia but a 1 for 1 remake of an ancient game that is likely outsourced. A Princess Peach spin-off platformer for 2024, Nintendo did a Peach platformer for DS that sold like 1.3 million copies ... not exactly in development terms the cream of Nintendo's crop. Even Pikmin 4 while cool, this is not a big ticket franchise for Nintendo, its sales peak is like 2.3 million copies. 

It looks like basically like a lineup you'd expect for a last year Nintendo console transitioning to a new one next year when there's no handheld/home console split.

Tbh it's still too early to determine based on the game library if there will be a new console coming or not. We've seen A-Tier Nintendo franchises launch only months before the successor or ever alongside the successor. Pokemon Sun & Moon on 3DS launched only 3 months before the Switch, BOTW & Twilight Princess were 2 A-tier franchises launching alongside the successor, and plus a year like this isn't anything very new for the Switch, the 2nd half of 2020 looks worse than the 2nd half this year.

In 2020 you had Mario 3D-All Stars which is cool, but just a collection of ports. Age of Calamity which wasn't a big holiday type seller, same with Pikmin 3 DX.
This year, you have Mario Bros Wonder which is easily bigger than any game in the 2nd half of 2020, and you have a remake of Mario RPG which is a new game that could have as much appeal, if not more than Age of Calamity..

This 2023 holiday season isn't that bad to assume it's over for the Switch.

However, after this 2D Mario idk what else Nintendo could do at this point with the Switch without greatly extending it's lifecycle and limiting the launch potential of thier next console. We know that there's no way Nintendo could release BOTW 3 on Switch anytime soon, Smash Bros 6 tbh just wouldn't make much sense on the same hardware with Ultimate existing. They could do an Animal Crossing sequel and a 3D Mario is overdue, but if they do that this late in the lifecycle for Switch it'll only push back the successor further since they would need more time to make whole new entries to the seires to be ready at launch if they were to make the next A-tier games exclusively for Switch. The only A-tier Nintendo franchise I could see Nintendo milking on Switch is Pokemon

Nintendo could release franchises that haven't got good representation on Switch, such as Mario & Luigi,Kid Icarus,Star Fox,F-Zero, or a bunch of remasters and remakes, but those types of games aren't big enough to keep the Nintendo afloat much more.

It's gonna be interesting to see if there's ever gonna be an A-tier Switch exclusive after this 2D Mario