I think it will come down to when/if they announce a successor. If they theoretically hold off on it till next year (even early next year), then 15m seems quite achievable to me considering that they are probably in for a great Q1.

If they manage to ship 15M this year, then it will be the best 8th FY for any console in history, after beating DS and PS2 for the best 7th FY.

The full quote about the 15m forecast.

"Sustaining the Switch's sales momentum will be difficult in its seventh year," Furukawa said in an investor call, via Bloomberg. "Our goal of selling 15m units this fiscal year is a bit of stretch. But we will do our best to bolster demand going into the holiday season so that we can achieve the goal."

The next gen console doesn't look to be launching this FY. April would be the earliest then I guess. A summer or September 2024 launch is more likely I think.

ShadowLink93 said: Switch did indeed have the highest FY6 of any console ever, beating the DS' 17.53 million by 440K. Nintendo's forecast of 15 million for FY7 would beat the 14.71 million record by PS2. But remember they did overshoot their previous forecast last year so it will not be easy.

Looking at the huge Nintendo DS drop in the 7th year, I think I'll keep a close eye on @trunkswd 's gap charts for Switch vs DS throughout the year. 

I wonder if they are expecting the Mario Movie to push hardware, similar to Pokémon Go for 3DS in 2016.

For the first time BOTW outsells Smash Bros Ultimate in a fiscal year and will probably eventually overtake it. It also looks certain that Super Mario Odyssey will pass Pokemon Sword and Shield by next quarter.

Another good quarter to end the fiscal year getting them a record. 15m for this fiscal year would be amazing but considering they've missed their original forecast twice in a row and that 15m would be a lower drop than last time 13-14m seems more likely to me. It has been really clear for a while now but the successor isn't coming out this year so it should be next year considering that both hardware and software are in the decline phase now and since it won't come out this fiscal year probably still 1.5 years left to go till it releases which means the Switch stopping at around 150m is looking more likely than ever.

Decent results overall however the biggest disappointment of this report was the sales of Metroid Prime Remastered, it was about 900k short of what i expected. It looks like the shadow drop backfired.

I wonder if OG Switch can reach 100 million (currently at 89 million)

Or even beat the DS Lite (93 million)