Most likely he just looked at the covid impacted years and put the difference between the lower forecast and the much larger result down to Nintendo being conservative without taking into account the reasons behind those high numbers.

This is the quote in better context from Nikkei Asia (the original source):

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Media-Entertainment/Nintendo-expects-Switch-sales-to-slow-further-this-year

[Furukawa] also commented on the sales target for this year. "Given that recent year-on-year sales have been declining by more than 20%, the target of 15 million units ... is a bit of a stretch."

To offset the Switch's decline and get back on the growth track, many are calling on the company to introduce a new console.

One is rumored to be due out next year. "Development seems to be progressing well," a source close to Nintendo told Nikkei Asia. "But a product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest."

I am starting to wonder if they really are just planning to rely heavily on ToTK + Evergreens this fall and no Mario platformer this fall as I had thought. Software being expected to decline also makes me go "hmmm". 

Just a bunch of suits who think that the cloud is the future and while they may be right, in many respects a more nuanced approach would have them seeing that it is more important in some areas than others even when looking at those in the same sector.

Similar things were said about Nintendo and online, and the answer is still the same, they move to the beat of their own drum and will transition when and if they see the need and most certainly at their own pace and while that may be seen as conservative by some, it should be remembered that while for MS moving the Xbox division away from reliance on home hardware to the cloud is their top priority, and with Sony's focus seemingly sitting somewhere in the middle, the shift away from the other two Console makers that started happening with the Wii and blue ocean means that Nintendo with its hybrid Switch and focus on innovation sits pretty much at the other end of the spectrum and so shouldn't be lumped into the same basket .

If Cloud ever takes off in a big way (as in you can use it on your 5G phone without running your cell phone bill to $300/month) it's pretty much the end of all dedicated hardware (Playstation and XBox too) ... so I can't really see why Nintendo would even want to pursue that, lol.

Hardware seems very healthy for such an old system, though I feel like the shadowdrop and zero marketing approach for Prime Remastered was a mistake, it deserved better.

Mario Odyssey is gaining on Pokemon Sword and Shield and looks set to overtake it by the next report. 3D Mario selling more than mainline Pokemon is pretty crazy.

Looking ahead, a lot hinges on what the second half of the year looks like, which is almost a total blank at the moment. Could be they're holding back as they often do, but if they really don't have any major titles after Pikmin 4 then they are going to fall way, way short of 15m.

Indeed. And sold at 40$, and also best reviewed game of 2023 so far (until Friday). Didn't help at the end

I mean granted, Metroid is a niche series and Prime is a remaster of a 20 year old game, but still, they really should have given it a proper push instead of sending it out with hardly a mention and limited physical copies.

So does MK8 Deluxe have the highest attach rate for a non-bundled game ever?

Metroid is like Bloodborne , as in the internet discourse around it would make you think its one of the bestsellers, but it has always been pretty much a passion project for Nintendo, as far as Return on Investment is concerned. 

I know it's relatively niche as a series, but still, given Dread managed nearly 3 million in it's first six months, I reckon Prime could've done better than this if they'd actually given it a marketing push.

Mind you, a million in less than two months is not bad, I just think it could've sold more.