It's not an either or thing. The lack of first party output last year will have decreased demand but stock could also have played a part at the holiday season. He mentioned that the PS5 still fell short of the PS4's 2015 holiday season despite doing far better than 2021 so the stock issue while mostly resolved by then still impacted things for that. It's not wild to say it also impacted the Xbox Series to at least some degree. 

Well Redfall is not going to do anything really. Arkane Studio games aren't really high sellers and the always online component for the single player experience will leave a bad taste for some plus the physical copy is just a download code. It will be gamepass filler for most of that community to hold them over for Starfield.

Horizon came out in 2021. This new one is a Forza Motorsport remake. It will be nice to look at but it's just more of the same. It all rests on Starfield.

MS needs 2 things to happen this year, one being Starfield needs to hit big and the other is the Activision deal to go through. If Starfield doesn't knock it out of the park and the Activision deal gets blocked then MS will be finished for peak years this gen. 

Speaking of things that don't have to be either-or, it could be both a supply and demand thing, i.e., not enough demand for the Series S even though it's cheaper and more readily available, but stronger demand for the Series X but not enough supply to meet that demand. There is a significant disparity between the two models. It's definitely a case of getting what you pay for. I know that nearly every store in my area has adequate supply of PS5s, and the Series S seems readily available as well, but the Series X is nowhere to be found and hasn't been available for quite some time. Kind of hard to sell a product if there's no supply for it. At the end of the day, something is causing the Xbox Series to have relatively lackluster holidays after doing well on average during the non-holiday months, and for that phenomenon to repeat itself two years in a row.

I'm looking further into it and asking around, but from what I've seen it's not as clear-cut as Blake says. I have found several articles talking about lack of Series X supply (EDIT: See below), but I can't seem to find the sources he's referring to. If and when they turn up and I'm 100% in the wrong, I'll accept that, but I do find it odd when I directly cited my sources 2+ years ago I was still being dismissed out of hand and flat-out insulted, which led to my invocation of site rules to be left alone regarding the subject at hand (which is still in effect, people; just because I reference it or because it's been 2 years doesn't mean you get to circumvent the rules). I got kind of sick of showing my work and my sources for months only to be treated like I was the dumbest person on the forum.

https://www.svg.com/1112958/xbox-fans-may-have-a-hard-time-getting-a-series-x-this-holiday-season/

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/xbox-boss-expects-console-demand-to-outstrip-supply-this-holiday/

https://www.theverge.com/23459189/phil-spencer-microsoft-activision-call-of-duty-xbox-playstation-candy-crush-apple-fortnite-vr (Phil Spencer interview where he addresses both supply and demand)

https://gettotext.com/the-xbox-series-x-will-still-be-in-short-supply-for-christmas-admits-microsoft-france/ (this one regards France, but still shows supply issues are a thing, and not likely to be limited to just that country)

Maybe others like me have already bought a Series console for Starfield and Forza 8. It will still bump sales, but I'm sure not the only one that jumped in early then got stung with the (further) delays. I mean thanks to full BC and Gamepass, if you were looking for Starfield, no reason not to buy one sooner rather than later. CoD and other ActiBlizz games going to gamepass will have a bigger effect.

I love the downplay of these games simply because you don't have interest, so you have to justify with false and misleading statements. The Redfall standard copy has a disc. Don't believe all rumors you hear. There hasn't been a FM game in 6 years. Many people will be very excited for this new one which is a true current gen game and a complete rework of the game. Starfield will be huge and move systems. 

And many others haven't gotten an Xbox yet. This might come as a surprise, but the bulk of console sales come from late adopters waiting for the games they want to have already come out. 

Late adopters that generally wait for a price cut. However prices are only going up so far doh. Next BF will move a lot with price cuts yet I doubt if Starfield will move a whole lot on its own. I would think Harry Potter is more of a console mover than a new IP or a niche racing game. So let's see what sales bump Hogwarts Legacy made.

Of course Starfield day one GP on BF with price cut, that's gonna move consoles! I think the latest 'rumors' are for a June release date, historically the weakest sales period for consoles, xbox in particular. But perhaps Starfield will create enough buzz to move consoles in summer.

You don't appear to know anything about how consoles sell. Lets take the switch for example, while it was down last year it still had pretty sizable sales bumps from splatoon 3 and pokemon, despite those being sequels to games already on the console. I guarantee you when the new zelda releases we'll see a bump in sales.

As I've already said this thread is nonsense and it's embarrassing that the conversation is still going.

There is nothing nonsensical about either Svennoj's take nor the thought of Series XS peaking already. I'm tired of people acting like condescending dicks whenever they read something they don't like or agree with.

There are worrying signs about Series XS's performance. The usual fans and offended defenders told us to that Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 will push so many consoles, with some implying they were bigger system sellers than anything on PS5 before 2022. Look how that went... came and gone like the wind. I'm pretty sure Starfield will be a different beast, but let's not pretend that it's guaranteed to be such a massive success and have a strong or long lasting system selling effect when Halo and Forza combined didn't.

Who's to say a likely improvement in Series X's production will make up for Series S decline or PS5's availability and hype? Are we even sure they're even moderately improving? Series XS has a lot going against it right now, and Microsoft focusing less and less on console in favor of going broader will cost some hardware sales. PC may eat into Series XS's potential more than the average person thinks. Starfield may not have an explosive popularity or just sell primarily on PC, PS5's marketing and momentum might overshadow and dwarf Series XS, and the ABK deal could fall through. A lot of things can go wrong, but also a lot of things can go right or better than expected.

I'm sorry in opinion it's just such a ridiculous assertion. Not only do they have a lot more exclusives coming out this year than last, but a lot more games in general are coming out. Outside of everything getting delayed to next year I don't see this year being down. 

I see you're not calling out people saying things like most who want starfield have already bought an xbox. Going by that logic I could say the ps5 will be down because everyone who wants the new spider man already got a ps5 or something, but that would be ridiculous.

I own all three consoles so I'm not really into the childish console war crap.