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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Has the Xbox Series Already had Their Peak Year?

 

Has the Xbox Series already Peaked?

Yes 50 49.02%
 
No 52 50.98%
 
Total:102
JRPGfan on 28 April 2024
Kyuu said:
Kyuu said:

There is nothing nonsensical about either Svennoj's take nor the thought of Series XS peaking already. I'm tired of people acting like condescending dicks whenever they read something they don't like or agree with.

There are worrying signs about Series XS's performance. The usual fans and offended defenders told us to that Halo Infinite and Forza Horizon 5 will push so many consoles, with some implying they were bigger system sellers than anything on PS5 before 2022. Look how that went... came and gone like the wind. I'm pretty sure Starfield will be a different beast, but let's not pretend that it's guaranteed to be such a massive success and have a strong or long lasting system selling effect when Halo and Forza combined didn't.

Who's to say a likely improvement in Series X's production will make up for Series S decline or PS5's availability and hype? Are we even sure they're even moderately improving? Series XS has a lot going against it right now, and Microsoft focusing less and less on console in favor of going broader will cost some hardware sales. PC may eat into Series XS's potential more than the average person thinks. Starfield may not have an explosive popularity or just sell primarily on PC, PS5's marketing and momentum might overshadow and dwarf Series XS, and the ABK deal could fall through. A lot of things can go wrong, but also a lot of things can go right or better than expected.

I promised to bump this thread in a year so here I am. Looks like the answer is a resounding yes. Hopefully a lesson was learned.

"Sales of Xbox hardware continue to shrink as the console’s latest iteration enters its fourth year on shelves. Hardware revenue for the Xbox division was down 31% in the most recent quarter due to lower sales. That follows a year-over-year drop of 30% in the same quarter in 2023."

From fortune.com


Yes, 31% down this quarter (from hardware, ei consoles).
And year on year, its down over 30% as well.



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JRPGfan on 28 April 2024
pikashoe said:
OneTime said:

Maybe, but Microsoft didn't need to pay $70bln (or whatever it was) to be a games publisher.  They could have just hired some devs.

At $70 a game, they need to sell a lot of games to make that money back...  And although people say: "they bought the IP" or "the back catalogue", punters have already bought those games, so MS still need to make new games to sell...

Well king alone makes over 2 billion a year in revenue. 

Long term thinking its a great buy.
Without a doubt, it will eventually pay it self back... its just you need to look like 20+ years into the future to see it.
Most people are too short sighted.  MS has enough money, that it can invest it like this, on a near sure bet, that will just take some time to earn it back.



JRPGfan on 28 April 2024
ALinkInTime said:

If this year isn't a higher peak year with all the releases Microsoft has invested in, then I think the peak for the Xbox Series has already passed.

Its already passed. Feel free to bump this, in april 2025, if Im wrong.



derpysquirtle64 on 28 April 2024

It's obvious that it peaked already. I don't remember which year it was, probably 2021 when they almost broke 10m mark, but with current trajectory it doesn't seem likely that this year they will move more than 5-6m consoles. And last year it was 7.5m if I remember correctly, big drop already. They really need a miracle to recover from this and beat their best year.



 

JRPGfan on 28 April 2024
derpysquirtle64 said:

It's obvious that it peaked already. I don't remember which year it was, probably 2021 when they almost broke 10m mark, but with current trajectory it doesn't seem likely that this year they will move more than 5-6m consoles. And last year it was 7.5m if I remember correctly, big drop already. They really need a miracle to recover from this and beat their best year.

^ yep.   (think it was 7.2m?)


If Xbox has a 3rd year in a row, with 30%+ yoy drops in hardware, it will be around 5m this year (maybe below).

PS5 just did 8,2m+ in its last quarter (they lowered their forecasts from 25m down to 21m+, for the year though).
Still this paints a picture. You could realistically see PS5 selling 4 to 1, what the Xbox does this year.

Like 5m for xbox, and 20m for PS5.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 28 April 2024

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Manlytears on 28 April 2024
JRPGfan said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

It's obvious that it peaked already. I don't remember which year it was, probably 2021 when they almost broke 10m mark, but with current trajectory it doesn't seem likely that this year they will move more than 5-6m consoles. And last year it was 7.5m if I remember correctly, big drop already. They really need a miracle to recover from this and beat their best year.

^ yep.   (think it was 7.2m?)


If Xbox has a 3rd year in a row, with 30%+ yoy drops in hardware, it will be around 5m this year (maybe below).

PS5 just did 8,2m+ in its last quarter (they lowered their forecasts from 25m down to 21m+, for the year though).
Still this paints a picture. You could realistically see PS5 selling 4 to 1, what the Xbox does this year.

Like 5m for xbox, and 20m for PS5.

Indeed, 5M this year is very possible.

I don't see Playstation doing 20M. It Will be close, perhaps 19M? At worst 18M.



curl-6 on 28 April 2024

Yeah if I had to guess now I'd say it does 4-5m this year, compared to 18-19m for PS5.
Hellblade II is too niche to be a killer app, Avowed is a new IP and looks meh, and Gears 6 probably won't come out this year and hasn't had a great entry since 2011.

Their two main problems are (a) not enough games and (b) when the games do arrive, they're either too niche or mediocre in quality.