Yeah if I had to guess now I'd say it does 4-5m this year, compared to 18-19m for PS5.
Hellblade II is too niche to be a killer app, Avowed is a new IP and looks meh, and Gears 6 probably won't come out this year and hasn't had a great entry since 2011.
Their two main problems are (a) not enough games and (b) when the games do arrive, they're either too niche or mediocre in quality.