Did you forget the part where Mario Maker sells way less than normal Mario platformers? They should release a new game that features exactly what you described: "a full campaign in a new style with exciting new power ups and level design elements." But no maker stuff.

I know you're right.  That being said, they've never used a whole brand new style to sell the game.  I don't think they would anyway.  Why consolidate two titles when you can have the Maker franchise still pulling in respectable sales numbers in addition to the mainline 2D titles.  I just really like the concept of the Maker series and hope they try it with other franchises.

And the top 3 Switch games sold more than the entire Wii U library.

Personally, I think the Switch 2 will not release before 2025. That being said, I see the outcome somewhere like that (shipped numbers):

125mil end of March 2023
140mil end of March 2024
152mil end of March 2025 (Switch 2 will launch in 2025)
158mil end of March 2026
161mil end of March 2027
163mil. end of life

I'm now expecting Switch 2 to be announced and released in 2024 with no Switch Pro happening. That being said, I can see Switch selling probably 15-16 million this calendar year, so I see it ending the year around 138 million. Next year, it will probably sell around 8 or 9 million. I'm thinking we can see a price drop this year for all models as follows:

Lite: $150-$170

Regular: $250

OLED: $300

Part of the reason for this is because I believe Switch 2 will be $400, so I think it would be better for the gap between Switch's best model and the Switch 2 to be at least $100 without Switch 2 costing too much. They could also reintroduce the Nintendo Selects line either in the lead up to this holiday season or sometime next year as a way to get low-budget people on board last minute.

I'm waiting to update my Switch sales prediction until early autumn or the announcement of Switch 2. Whatever comes first, I'll update it.
If Switch 2 comes out in March 2024, 144 million seems pretty likely (even if a little lowballing). But if Switch 2 isn't out until Q4 2024 or later, Switch will probably sell at least 150 million lifetime. Switch will still have a little in the tank after its successor launches and won't be discontinued right away.
After the Wii U's failure, I was skeptical of how Switch would perform. I remember for years thinking that the best it would probably do were 3DS numbers. With its massive success, Nintendo is in very unsure waters with how the next platform could perform. The realistic best scenario is a drop from Switch, but still a large success and high profits. But a failure (like the Wii U) or an underperformer (N64, 3DS) is possible. I know the 3DS still sold 75.94 million units, but that's a little less than half of the DS. Nintendo was probably shooting for 95-125 million units with the 3DS. Expecting it to get really close to or exceed the DS would be folly.

I don't think Nintendo Selects will be a thing for Nintendo again.

The Voucher program is basically their modern equivalent to that, and it's smarter because they have a higher profit margin on digital software as is, so basically all they're doing by giving people the voucher program is locking in 2 software sales for $10 off per game, but for them because they are cutting out the retailer anyway (digital only), they make the same profit margin they would as if you bought the games at retail.

Probably still a bit better as they don't have to manufacture/package/ship the game to boot. So basically even though Nintendo is giving you a "discount", they are basically making the same amount of money or slightly more even as if you had gone to the store and bought two physical copies of two Nintendo published games. 

And also of course now with the voucher program, you have to be subscribed to NSO to get it, so that's even more money for Nintendo. 

They can also pick and choose when they want to use the program and end it.

To be fair the upside of the program for the consumer is you can simply pick which two games you want the most, you're not limited to some selection of 3+ year old games. 

@Wman1996 Honestly, the only way they see Wii U/GCN sales are if they go back to 2 systems per generation. If it's just one system that is hybrid then honestly I can't see them ever dropping below 100m. That being said, I do expect Switch 2 to have a drop from Switch 1 just because you'll probably have a decent chunk of people that will still be satisfied with Switch. Could see Switch 1 selling around 150m and Switch 2 selling around 120m.

On top of that, a handful of times per year they have a 30% off sale on a selection of games. Vouchers & occasional discounts could very well eliminate Nintendo Selects.

Hope Nintendo waits and launches Switch 2 in Summer 2025