Wow cant believe Rolstopable is still on here. everyone else are new users

Welcome to the FUUUUUTUUUUUURE !

Okay following a very weak january, I'll go down to 9 million

Down on last year by 155k after 2 months and indications are March is going to be a very rough month for Xbox sales. My prediction of 11-12m is looking shaky now. The final quarter of the year is going to be make-or-break here. I expect the holidays will be up by a lot, but enough to get it above the 11m mark? I'm not sure about that. 10-11m the most popular choice looks the most likely to me now but if this poor early performance continues for another few months yet even that might be too high.

I think the either the series X needs a big boost in supply or the Series S needs a dramatic price cut for Xbox to hit 10 million this year. Even with holiday specials as low as $240 they weren’t moving units this holiday for the S.

My ideal would be to see a slim refresh of both Xboxes this year but I’m not holding out hope for that one

I'll keep that prediction for now, but if the trend continues to go downwards, it will def be under

Some adjustments were made to 2022 since I last posted this table.

Now 507k behind last year. This month was rough for YoY comparisons due to a strong March last year. I still think the Xbox can have a lot stronger sales in the holiday quarter this year but how much damage will be done before then I don't know. By the end of September we could be at a point where even an increase of 50% for the last quarter wouldn't be enough to put sales above 9m.

The results are in. VGChartz currently estimates the Xbox Series sold 7.496m units in 2023. My prediction of 11-11.9m was way too high.

Best prediction can't really be given to any poster. I would give it to liquidlaser for saying under 7m as the other lowest is 10m, but he also said "it would be lucky to do half" of 7m so I can't really give that best prediction either. Basically no one that posted in the thread got close, almost everyone predicted much too high and one person predicted much too low.

I can't really ignore the top two and bottom two poll options to weed out trolls like in the threads for the other consoles because one of the bottom two options is actually correct for Xbox. So just ignoring the top and bottom to get rid of most trolls the average prediction from the polled users would have been 11.2m. Meaning Switch sold 33% less than the polled users expectations.

A year lateron, and last holidays it was down to 150$ (series s) and 349$ (for the series x).
The outcome remains the same though.... sales are down.

If you do a new thread, for 2024, I suspect alot of people would be voteing under 7m.

also kinda surprised a thread about sales speculation, only resulted in 4 pages, after a year.

I expect so. Personally I would predict 7-8m this year. I have to believe that they can stem the bleeding this year. If they decline YoY after the year they've just had... Well it's just dead. I'm hoping for a slight increase YoY but I think expecting it to get back up to XBO 2017 levels is too much.