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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2023?

Less than 12 million 56 8.22%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 29 4.26%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 73 10.72%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 100 14.68%
 
18.0 - 19.9 million 142 20.85%
 
20.0 - 21.9 million 116 17.03%
 
22.0 - 23.9 million 49 7.20%
 
24.0 - 25.9 million 28 4.11%
 
26.0 - 28.0 million 11 1.62%
 
More than 28 million 77 11.31%
 
Total:681
Kyuu said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I think at this point he's just in denial. He predicted 3,5 million for Xbox this year, like WTF

Laser: Would be good for Series XS to sell 3.5 million globally this year.

Also Laser: Playstation is a weak brand in the US. Series XS will double PS5's sales there.

Also Laser: Stop being delusional y'all.


Dude's nothing short of a VGC legend.

I wonder if he's not trolling actually... each post he made is ridiculous.



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CloudxTifa said:
Kyuu said:

Laser: Would be good for Series XS to sell 3.5 million globally this year.

Also Laser: Playstation is a weak brand in the US. Series XS will double PS5's sales there.

Also Laser: Stop being delusional y'all.


Dude's nothing short of a VGC legend.

I wonder if he's not trolling actually... each post he made is ridiculous.

I think he's from a parallel universe and somehow his VGC connects to ours



SKMBlake said:

I think he's from a parallel universe and somehow his VGC connects to ours

All VGCs connect to our central hub.  It's what allows for both intelligent and ridiculous posts from all users.  I've seen a few from your alternate versions as well as mine.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Norion said:

With the recent Japan sales and the forecast increase my prediction of around 18m is already looking like it could be too low. The first few weekly sales this year are gonna be very telling.

Not trolling.  Just busy.

Also, I have stuck to my guns on an unpopular argument before.  In 2019, 2/3 of forum posters voted that Switch would never outsell the PS4.  But throughout 2018 and 2019 I was insisting that Switch would become the best selling system of all time.  Everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but now it looks that I am most likely going to be right.

My point is that this is not unusual behavior for me.  What is unusual is how pissed off people are getting at my unpopular argument.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm not asking you to agree with me.  I'm asking you to acknowledge my argument.  You still failed to do it in this very post that I am quoting.

I do acknowledge your argument, (that what I meant with "okay" last time) me disagreeing with it doesn't mean I'm invalidating you.

You say PS and Switch are competing, fair enough, I get that. But we know many people own both, so what's stopping millions of Switch owners from buying a PS5 in 2023?

If Switch and PS5 (and X|S) are competing, then Switch is going to eat into the PS5 + X|S total.  Furthermore it will do it chronologically.  For the first three years Switch sold about the same as 3DS + Wii U or maybe a bit more.  Then in the fourth year it's sales rocketed up far beyond that.  Likewise, so far PS5 + X|S has only been a bit less than PS4 + XB1.  If PS5 + X|S sales crater, then it is going to happen this year.  It's going to roughly coincide with the Switch's sales boom.

The only difference on a month-to-month basis is that PS5+X|S will probably crater a bit sooner.  Switch's sales boom happened after 3 holidays, and PS5 just had it's third holiday.  Hardware sales are heavily weighted around the holidays.  The crater will happen sometime this year, but it's hard to say exactly when since the launch dates of Switch and PS5 do not coincide.



^ This is the most illogical stuff I've read in a long time, probably ever. I can't take any more of this stupidity.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 03 February 2023

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

With the recent Japan sales and the forecast increase my prediction of around 18m is already looking like it could be too low. The first few weekly sales this year are gonna be very telling.

Not trolling.  Just busy.

Also, I have stuck to my guns on an unpopular argument before.  In 2019, 2/3 of forum posters voted that Switch would never outsell the PS4.  But throughout 2018 and 2019 I was insisting that Switch would become the best selling system of all time.  Everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but now it looks that I am most likely going to be right.

My point is that this is not unusual behavior for me.  What is unusual is how pissed off people are getting at my unpopular argument.

The key difference is that there wasn't a mountain of evidence showing that it's not possible for the Switch to sell that well. I don't think people are getting pissed off, we're just perplexed you're not changing your expectations after being very wrong on your predictions the past couple years for example thinking the PS5 will be down everywhere but Europe last year and your bet with Curl.

Your explanation in your reply to him just makes no sense since console sales don't work that way at all. They don't suddenly crater later on in a year after being up a lot the first portion so this is just as illogical as the Switch falling off a cliff stuff from years ago. There's just no coherence here since as it was put earlier you expect the Xbox Series to destroy the PS5 in the US but also think it'll sell much less than it this year which completely contradict each other.

And as I asked before if Europe is the only major region you expect the PS5 to do well in why do you expect it to sell a lot less this year when this should be the first year Europe has at least an ok amount of stock sent over? There's a ton of pent up demand there.

Last edited by Norion - on 03 February 2023

Kakadu18 said:

^ This is the most illigical stuff I've read in a long time, probably ever. I can't any more of this stupidity.

I actually hope for his sanity that he is trolling



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

With the recent Japan sales and the forecast increase my prediction of around 18m is already looking like it could be too low. The first few weekly sales this year are gonna be very telling.

Not trolling.  Just busy.

Also, I have stuck to my guns on an unpopular argument before.  In 2019, 2/3 of forum posters voted that Switch would never outsell the PS4.  But throughout 2018 and 2019 I was insisting that Switch would become the best selling system of all time.  Everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but now it looks that I am most likely going to be right.

My point is that this is not unusual behavior for me.  What is unusual is how pissed off people are getting at my unpopular argument.

curl-6 said:

I do acknowledge your argument, (that what I meant with "okay" last time) me disagreeing with it doesn't mean I'm invalidating you.

You say PS and Switch are competing, fair enough, I get that. But we know many people own both, so what's stopping millions of Switch owners from buying a PS5 in 2023?

If Switch and PS5 (and X|S) are competing, then Switch is going to eat into the PS5 + X|S total.  Furthermore it will do it chronologically.  For the first three years Switch sold about the same as 3DS + Wii U or maybe a bit more.  Then in the fourth year it's sales rocketed up far beyond that.  Likewise, so far PS5 + X|S has only been a bit less than PS4 + XB1.  If PS5 + X|S sales crater, then it is going to happen this year.  It's going to roughly coincide with the Switch's sales boom.

The only difference on a month-to-month basis is that PS5+X|S will probably crater a bit sooner.  Switch's sales boom happened after 3 holidays, and PS5 just had it's third holiday.  Hardware sales are heavily weighted around the holidays.  The crater will happen sometime this year, but it's hard to say exactly when since the launch dates of Switch and PS5 do not coincide.

Why would a Switch boom from 2020 affect PS5 and XS in 2023?

As for PS4 + Xbone outpacing PS5 + XS, the latter have been supply constrained almost their entire lives to this point, an issue which is now starting to abate. PS5 is going to explode this year, not crater; millions of people who haven't had the chance to buy one yet will finally have the opportunity, and the pent up hype and FOMO generated by being unobtainable will drive mammoth sales.



Interesting to read everyone's predictions. I think the folks saying 12-13M are about right with the recession in 2023 coming. Funny I've been saying that for a while, so surprised to see other people say it.

One potential problem for the system could be the scalper issue. Its not been said how bad it is, but some predictions put it at 25-33 percent. I expect after this holiday its closer to 15, so about 4 million consoles. We're already seeing people using credit cards a lot and car repos will likely hit in a month or two. As bills pile up, a lot of scalpers may take a lose on the PS5s and sell them at below market rate. This could really hurt demand for the system, especially at a critical juncture. So it could be closers to 9-10 million next year. Otherwise, think 12-13 is pretty reasonable



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VideoGameAccountant said:

Interesting to read everyone's predictions. I think the folks saying 12-13M are about right with the recession in 2023 coming. Funny I've been saying that for a while, so surprised to see other people say it.

If the recession is tied to a crash then I'd be more inclined to agree. If it's just a recession, unless it goes on for a year or two (in which case sales will slow), I don't think sales will be any less than last year.

Some thought during covid we'd see extremely weak sales which wasn't the case. Not that they were record breaking either, but people won't just sit around and do nothing, even if they aren't getting a government check here and there. They'll find something cheaper and do that instead. A console and an online game or two, or a sub, is a relatively cheap way to keep yourself entertained for years if you're just looking to hold out as a casual until things get back on track.

If I had to guess, if we see the rumored PS5 (Slim) this holiday, it'll be no more than $399 (and $50-$100 more for the disc drive add on). Might even be $349 if Sony is seeing a long enough recession coming. PS hardware sales are good but software is a bit lacking. The way to fix that is get the hardware manufacturing cost down as much as possible and subsidize it a bit if need be. Then people will buy more games and it'll be worth it, especially in a recession.