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curl-6 on 03 February 2023
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

With the recent Japan sales and the forecast increase my prediction of around 18m is already looking like it could be too low. The first few weekly sales this year are gonna be very telling.

Not trolling.  Just busy.

Also, I have stuck to my guns on an unpopular argument before.  In 2019, 2/3 of forum posters voted that Switch would never outsell the PS4.  But throughout 2018 and 2019 I was insisting that Switch would become the best selling system of all time.  Everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but now it looks that I am most likely going to be right.

My point is that this is not unusual behavior for me.  What is unusual is how pissed off people are getting at my unpopular argument.

curl-6 said:

I do acknowledge your argument, (that what I meant with "okay" last time) me disagreeing with it doesn't mean I'm invalidating you.

You say PS and Switch are competing, fair enough, I get that. But we know many people own both, so what's stopping millions of Switch owners from buying a PS5 in 2023?

If Switch and PS5 (and X|S) are competing, then Switch is going to eat into the PS5 + X|S total.  Furthermore it will do it chronologically.  For the first three years Switch sold about the same as 3DS + Wii U or maybe a bit more.  Then in the fourth year it's sales rocketed up far beyond that.  Likewise, so far PS5 + X|S has only been a bit less than PS4 + XB1.  If PS5 + X|S sales crater, then it is going to happen this year.  It's going to roughly coincide with the Switch's sales boom.

The only difference on a month-to-month basis is that PS5+X|S will probably crater a bit sooner.  Switch's sales boom happened after 3 holidays, and PS5 just had it's third holiday.  Hardware sales are heavily weighted around the holidays.  The crater will happen sometime this year, but it's hard to say exactly when since the launch dates of Switch and PS5 do not coincide.

Why would a Switch boom from 2020 affect PS5 and XS in 2023?

As for PS4 + Xbone outpacing PS5 + XS, the latter have been supply constrained almost their entire lives to this point, an issue which is now starting to abate. PS5 is going to explode this year, not crater; millions of people who haven't had the chance to buy one yet will finally have the opportunity, and the pent up hype and FOMO generated by being unobtainable will drive mammoth sales.