| curl-6 said: Switch has shown incredible legs, but even the most successful systems slow down eventually, and the Switch is about to turn 6 years old, so it's no surprise it's gradually slowing from a full on sprint to a jog. |
The PS4 got replaced the year after it had a 13.5m calendar year and that was the right time, because as a console manufacturer you want to sell 10m+ consoles each and every year in order to keep software sales/subscriptions high. The PS4's trajectory was one that was going to put it on the edge of 10m in calendar year 2020, so the PS5 came at the right time (ignoring outside factors such as COVID-19 which led to unforeseen chip shortages).
Switch is on pace to sell around 20m units in 2020, so there's no danger for Nintendo to fall below the 10m threshold, meaning software sales will remain high; and it's software which brings in the most profit in Nintendo's business. Right now Switch is similar to the DS, with both selling around 20m units in their respective sixth year. Nintendo cut the DS short which then in turn crippled the 3DS, because it launched before enough software was ready. Back then there was at least the reasoning to beat Sony to the punch for next gen handhelds, but this time around there's no pressure whatsoever. It would be very boneheaded to plan for a 2023 Switch successor when there's still plenty of life left for Switch. Development times for games have only kept getting longer, so if the 3DS came to soon when it launched six years after the DS, then a Switch successor sure as well would be coming too soon six and a half years after Switch (assuming a fall 2023 launch).
The risk of losing momentum is a fundamentally flawed premise. We've seen it often enough that success or failure of one system doesn't have to mean anything for the follow-up system, especially in Nintendo's history. Fumbling the transition is a valid concern, but fumbling is what will occur with a launch that is coming too early and be on the back of cross-gen games. In that scenario the Switch successor would have no defining games on its own for a year, and the Switch successor won't have the benefit of Switch where gamers were eager to avoid playing games on the predecessor. Something like Breath of the Wild as a cross-gen release worked for Switch because nobody wanted the Wii U anyway.
And if none of the above has convinced you yet, just think of Nintendo's top development teams and their release schedule as of late. Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3 in 2022, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC in 2022 and 2023, Tears of the Kingdom in 2023, a rumored release of an EPD Tokyo game in 2023. That's unusual for a Nintendo console, to have so many of the top teams still releasing so many games at this stage of the lifecycle. Nothing is going to change for next generation as far as Nintendo consoles are concerned: Nintendo's best games will have to carry the system early on, because third parties cannot be relied on. The way Switch's release schedule has looked, it's unrealistic for Nintendo to stack enough games for the Switch's successor's first year if the new system launches in 2023. By all accounts, it just makes more sense to prolong Switch's life with another revision in 2023 and buy Nintendo's developers enough time to start strong out of the gates whenever the next generation launches.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
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