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Forums - Sales Discussion - Black Friday Sales - Worldwide Hardware Estimates for Nov 20-26

Shit, I still remember my original prediction: 80-100 Million.
Reason for that was because of the monopoly of the Handheld market like @Wyrdness said, but also because I assumed there wasn't a complete overlap between Nintendo's Handheld audience and Console audience. That there were some Wii U owners that didn't own or weren't interested in the 3DS that would buy the Switch, and vice versa.

Boy, it wasn't just Wii U and 3DS owners that were interested!

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PAOerfulone said:

The March Continues...

So does the December

It finally happened.

A true David and Goliath fight, and at long last the giant has fallen. If you suggested it back before the Switch launched, or even in its early years, you'd have been laughed at and called delusional.

The story of the Switch has been one long sequence of smashing expectations and overcoming the odds, and this latest milestone is one more gem in its crown.

If you would have told me that the Nintendo console after Wii U would not only outsell PS4 in record time, but will be in the top 3 best selling consoles of all time I can't say I'd have believed you. I recall even being pessimistic about the Switch before it launched. But man, people say it all the time but don't count Nintendo out. Especially after the success of the Switch.

I know people are ready for a new Switch but I imagine Nintendo sees this and asks "do we even have to release it yet?". I'm sure Switch 2 is probably almost ready to go but man, these numbers are nuts. The numbers across the board are impressive.

I believe Nintendo will bring out a New Nintendo Switch next year. It will be more powerful (everything from slightly to substantial is possible) but it will not be a Switch 2, even when it should be substantially more powerful, Nintendo will count it to the "Switch Gen 1 family". I just think it would be insane to bring out a true successor (Switch 2) in 2024 already (2023 is anyway out of discussion) because semiconductor shortage will remain a problem even into 2024. Even if the shortage should be solved soon, semiconductor will be priced higher than usual (before the shortage) as the demand is very high. Nintendo doesn't want to pay high prices. On the other hand, an upgraded Switch will keep the sales going and production will not be an issue as the demand for an upgrade will be by far lower than for a true Switch 2.

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Hold up, the Switch was falling off a cliff.

Now it has outsold the PS4?


jvmkdg said:

great sales for all but the sales of the ps5 disappointed me a little considering the stock that sony had of 3.2 million. I think December will be a much better month for the ps5

Especially the European numbers.

Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

Which "VGChartzStaff" wrote this compelling article on launch day for the Nintendo Switch?

It includes this nice conclusion:

"Final Thoughts & Predictions

I’m looking forward to receiving my Nintendo Switch sometime soon (whenever Royal Mail finally delivers it!) and putting it through its paces, but I'm concerned that Nintendo is making the same mistakes its competitors have made before it, and even repeating some of their missteps with the WiiU. It's in a stronger position to succeed than its immediate predecessor - indeed I see the Switch outselling the WiiU - but in the long run I don't see it coming close to the success of the 3DS or PS4.

Here are my predictions for the Switch over the coming years:

  • The Nintendo Switch will sell more than the WiiU (10+ million units)
  • But it will not sell more than 25 million units.
  • At $299.99/£279.99, the Switch won’t sell well beyond launch, resulting in a price drop within its first full year on the market."

Also, does anyone have a handy guide to Switch Sales predictions over the years, in particular 2017?  Would love to see where the range was, and in particular what my prediction was.  I'd like a helping of crow for the holidays if possible.

25 million  lol

34 years playing games.


Hardware chart didn't update? avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.