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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 114.33m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 114.33m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 135 million 77 12.56%
 
135.0 - 139.9 million 95 15.50%
 
140.0 - 144.9 million 81 13.21%
 
145.0 - 149.9 million 75 12.23%
 
150.0 - 154.9 million 88 14.36%
 
155.0 - 159.9 million 78 12.72%
 
160.0 - 164.9 million 54 8.81%
 
165.0 - 169.9 million 12 1.96%
 
170.0 - 175.0 million 7 1.14%
 
More than 175 million 46 7.50%
 
Total:613
Kakadu18 on 15 November 2022
super_etecoon said:

It’s always good to have a troll option in the poll. The less than 135 option definitely fills that bill, and seems to be working. Notice the lack of support for that ridiculous prediction here in the comments.

But 21 troll votes, wow, that’s some good bait.

People who voted for that option probably mostly did so on the front page and won't bother posting here.



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AJNShelton on 15 November 2022
Renamed said:
Soundwave said:

It's hard to say because I don't think Nintendo really prioritizes final LTD that much. If they did they would have kept the DS going long enough to pass the PS2 as it was in reach but they had no interest. The PS4 could probably sell quite a bit more too if Sony wanted to treat it like the PS2, but there's not much interest in low profit sales these days. 

Truth be told, none of them prioritize this.  While outselling a competitor device sounds cool to us, it matters little from a business perspective. 

Exactly. It's just for us, the figures fans. But if the Switch become the highest selling console ever, I wonder what would be the "it's a glorified DVD player" equivalent since it can't do pretty much anything besides playing games.



BonfiresDown on 15 November 2022

Nintendo has experience with generational transitions not always going as well they hoped, i.e. DS -> 3DS, Wii -> Wii U. So even when Switch 2 is launched, I don’t think they will be in a hurry to get rid of the original before they know they have another success on their hands. So, what I’m expecting is cross-gen Nintendo games for several years along with Switch price cuts to $150/200/250 or so. While Switch buyers don’t really seem that price sensitive looking at the OLED success, I do think there might be an audience that could keep buying the budget option for years.



Renamed on 15 November 2022
SKMBlake said:
Renamed said:

Truth be told, none of them prioritize this.  While outselling a competitor device sounds cool to us, it matters little from a business perspective. 

Exactly. It's just for us, the figures fans. But if the Switch become the highest selling console ever, I wonder what would be the "it's a glorified DVD player" equivalent since it can't do pretty much anything besides playing games.

"It's not a home console so that doesn't count".

That shall be the new battle cry.



To the privileged, equality feels like oppression. 

Kakadu18 on 15 November 2022
SKMBlake said:
Renamed said:

Truth be told, none of them prioritize this.  While outselling a competitor device sounds cool to us, it matters little from a business perspective. 

Exactly. It's just for us, the figures fans. But if the Switch become the highest selling console ever, I wonder what would be the "it's a glorified DVD player" equivalent since it can't do pretty much anything besides playing games.

Everyone had three of them. So only 1/3 of them counts. /s



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UnderwaterFunktown on 15 November 2022

I'll try to cover all options:

Low end: Their next system is announced some time next year and releases in early 2024 - 145 mil

Middle end: Their next system is announced some time in 2024 and releases either holiday 2024 and early 2025 - 155-160 mil (this is what I'd guess currently)

High end: They honest to god have another model up their sleeve to keep Switch sales strong for another few years before their next system, which won't be until late 2025 at the earliest - 170 mil+



Try out my free game on Steam

2024 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:

Nintendo | PlayStation | Multiplat

RingoGaSuki on 15 November 2022

A bit over 160m is what I've been saying for years and it's still where I think it'll land. I can't see Switch 2 coming before March 2024.



javi741 on 15 November 2022

As of right now, I'm voting for 150-155, it's gonna be really close call though in whether or not it outsells the PS2 & DS. It's hard to make a certain prediction about this since we don't know when the Switch successor will release, but at minimum, it for sure will exceed 140 Million sold.



javi741 on 15 November 2022

There's gotta be a lot of casuals voting on this poll. Cause there is no way in hell that 25% of knowledgeable people would think the Switch will sell less than 140 Million. The Switch selling anything less than 140 Million is completely out of the realm of possibilities at this point.



IcaroRibeiro on 15 November 2022

Voted for 165-170 mi

No new generation on horizon for Nintendo. Nintendo will milk Switch for eternity. I won't be surprised if it gets the final revision next year