Again, none of that has anything to do with my discussion with Liquid Laser, so it's not relevant to me.

My point, yet again, was only whether the Switch greatly eats into the sales of the PS5. That is all I am discussing. And since you can't or won't stick to that, I'm left with no choice but to simply ignore your posts.

The reason your predictions are off seems to be that they're influenced by your personal preferences, which tend to be usually negative for Nintendo. 

Trust me, I used to do the exact same thing years ago. Once we learn to remove our own feelings from the equation we tend to make more accurate estimates. 

I didn't mean it as rudeness. 

Some of your forecasts for the Switch like 15m for 2022 globally, or expecting 4m for Japan in 2022, etc just seem unrealistically negative for Nintendo and if it's not your preferred brand then maybe that's an influence. Or maybe not, just a thought.

Your predictions for the Switch are mostly pessimistic so I just wondered if maybe you didn't like Nintendo or the Switch and that was part of the reason why. If not, fair enough. 

What Killer Apps? I went through the entire game catalogue of the Vita, and the only real big releases I could find were ports from other console games. If you have any real Killer Apps in mind, care to mention them?

@underscored: Nintendo is strong in Japan because they make games that also interest Japanese players. Sony gradually stopped doing so when they focused all on fighting the Xbox by bringing more and more games for western audiences. Sony literally abandoned Japanese players with this tactic. If Sony would create some games that were actually also interesting for Japanese players and not just western ones, then Sony could easily grow there again. But that's simply not what they're doing with their laser-focus to the west, and even burning some of the few bridges left with actions like the recent price hike.

Long story short, Playstation sales in Japan are not low due to Nintendo, they are low due to the actions, or lack thereof, of Sony in Japan.

Of course PS3 and 360 directly competed.  My point is that the release of one did not immediately cause the other to plummet in sales.  Console competition almost never works that way.  The reason that neither dominated like the PS4 or Switch is that the PS4 was the dominant console of Generation 8 and Switch is the dominant console of Generation 9.  It's not obvious that the Switch is competing with the PS5 now, but it will be obvious by the end of the generation.  PS5 + XBS will never get above 130m.

Yeah to give an idea how ludicrous that prediction is at this point if they were at 50m exactly at the start of next year they could average just 15m combined a year between 2023-2027 and still almost reach 130m by the end of that period so even in that absurd scenario 130m would still get surpassed eventually.

I may have already asked you this so apologies if I've forgotten (I have some memory issues) but if you think the two combined will fall short of 130 million, how much do you think each will sell individually, lifetime?

Okay, you want examples. Well, here you are:

Here's the problem with the games you mentioned: Only two managed over 200k sales in Japan (Soul Sacrifice and Hot Shots Golf), and you forgot about the biggest one (Freedom Wars, with over 300k). The problem is simply that this is not enough to be a killer app. Just for comparison's sake, the Wii U, which sold less than the Vita, still has 8 games that outsold the best-selling SCE Vita game, and by very large margins even. But the Wii U was an outlier with crazy attach rates, so reaching the same crazy numbers ain't necessary - just more than the Vita games achieved.

This is why I say that there's no Killer App from Sony on the Vita. Freedom Wars comes closest to being one, but it's not quite there yet.

As for the other games you mentioned, LBP Vita sold just 20k in Japan, Killzone 40k, Uncharted Golden Abyss at least a respectable 130k, and 90k for Gravity Rush. Even for a console with only 5M sales in Japan, those numbers are not enough to really push much hardware.

Another thing to not are the release dates. Most of the mentioned games came out in 2012 or 2013, so during the handheld's 2 first years. Sony themselves pretty much dropped support for the Vita in late 2013, just finishing the games that were still in development. Of course this will cut a console short. And that's despite both 2013 and 2014 were looking up for the Vita. Had they continued to support the Vita, the sales would certainly have been quite a bit higher. After 2016 sales thus just lingered around until 2020, kept alive by Minecraft and the occasional Otome VN.

Tl;dr, Sony would have needed to develop some more Japan-centric games (which would have been worthwhile since Japan was the only region where the Vita was selling at all) and support the console longer than just until the release of the PS4, and it could have achieved sales similar to the PS3/PS4 despite it's problems.

Sony absolutely could bring a successor to the Vita. Done right this time (System price and value proposition, non-proprietary memory cards, Japan-centric games, long support), and it would certainly sell north of 10M, and how much north entirely depends on well and long Sony would support the system.

This is next-level delusion. They will be well over 50 million this year alone

I get your point that Switch is the dominant platform, but this is a stretch. Switch coexistence with both PS4 and PS5 diminish their impact across both consoles. Next year is likely the last one of Switch winning weekly charts, by 2024 PS5 will start outselling it and even Series S/X will too 

The only way for a Nintendo platform to cannibalize PS5 and Series S/X sales is to Nintendo release their next console ASAP before PS5 and Series S/X start getting more traction and offer an alternative platform to play most next gen exclusive third party which is as clear as the summer sky it won't. Switch 2 might be enough to play let's say Elden Ring portable with smaller resolution, but it won't be able to go further to offer an alternative for the biggest 9th gen third parties yet to come. By the time Switch 2 arrives all cross gen games will be old already to make a significant impact, just like pretty much all of late 8th gen ports barely sold on Switch compared to their original platforms

And this is assuming Switch 2 is going to be just as dominant as Switch right from start, good luck with that prediction