Even IF the switch is starting to hit that saturation
What are people expecting its lifetime sales to be?
28 million, 29? 30?

I don't think nintendo is concerned about the switch hitting 27+ million lifetime, its still massive and not likely to be easily topped in the future

To answer my own question, I think the switch will do 29.5 million lifetime in japan before nintendo truly moves on to their next gaming device.

BOTW will pass 2 million physical sales next week!

Mario Kart sales actually dropped for the first time in several weeks.   That dlc has done its job though.  You can see it's sales this week are about twice Smash Bros' sales in spite of the latter having a bigger lifetime total.  I bet the gradual rollout of new dlc content will keep weekly Mario Kart sales high for the next couple of years.

02./02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 16.312 / 4.554.586 (-18%)

05./06. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 8.064 / 4.840.518 (-18%)

As for YoY Switch comparisons, I want to remind people that 2020 and 2021 had Animal Crossing and MH Rise as late March releases.  The new Kirby game is just not going to drive sales like these two games did.  Switch Sports and Splatoon 3 are still coming.  Expect higher hardware sales coming from these two games.  I do think 2022's year end total will be below 2021, but the software lineup is so good this year, that it might be just a tiny YoY drop.

I hope this doesn't mean the end of 2D Kirby games.

It already has the is another sku of BOTW with the DLC bundled, the total physical sales are already pass 2m.

Switch and PS5 are pretty supply-limited. I wonder how well they would sell if they had enough stock.

Xbox is doing mighty fine by it's Japan standards

Hey now, don't steal my prediction. I predicted 29.5m in November :).

Still it is good to see I am not alone, many people will disagree.

Edit: I see it is not your actual prediction. And to be honest I see no signs that the Switch is hitting saturation yet.  Saturation doesn't really kick in until rumors of the next console appear.

Minecraft is at #3. This is 3rd party evergreen.

Last week Switch OLED had a 30 % drop while the regular model and Switch Lite sold about the same as before. So I guess there are still stock issues of the OLED model.

I think Nintendo Switch Sports and Splatoon 3 will push the hardware sales quite a bit. So I'm not too worried.

Last week Series X sold almost 3k units and this week Series S sold almost 4k... hmm, I wonder what would happen if MS is able to ship at least 4k units for each in one week. What will be the actual baseline?