Wow the recent U.S sales numbers for November for the Switch look rough. Estimates have Switch sales dropping 40% compared to last year in NA, and we saw a 40% drop in Japan as well for November, and this was with the value added bundles being permanent this Holiday season and big games like Mario Wonder . Did not expect a drop that significant. Looks like the Switch is reaching saturation quicker then we expected. It was looking like at first that Switch would easily outsell Nintendo's 15M forecast, but now it's looking like it might fall short of it.

Really the best thing Nintendo could do at this point is do actual price cuts on the system, but Nintendo confirmed that it wouldn't happen this fiscal year ending March 2024, so the earliest it could happen in April 2024. I still have my doubts Nintendo would want to do price cuts with the system though cause they would want to force people to just get a Switch 2.

If declines continue this badly, it's goona be difficult to outsell the PS2. Seems like the Switch's natural saturation point would be sales between 145-150M, any sales more would require Nintendo to force it to sell more than it's natural appeal with price cuts, over-extending its life, and new models.

The cliff is coming

At this point in time the Switch is to have an estimated total sales of 9.47M (including the recent Americas post today).
In order for Nintendo to reach their 15M forecast they must sell 5.53M units Worldwide between Dec-Mar and Europe for November.

I'm guestimating how much is needed to sell for each period to reach 15M:
Based on trends in the past each month after December usually sells just below 1M, so Jan, Feb and Mar will have approx. 3M (for the sake of simple math, but it would look more like 2.7M).
Europe will most likely sell less than the Americas, so I suspect Europe to sell about 0.5M Switch units.
Now based on this guestimate the Nintendo Switch only need to sell +2M units in Worldwide for December.
This is going to be a tricky climb.
I have faith, lets go!

Yeah, early and mid 2024 it will be pretty rough without Zelda and closer to the OLED model saturation.

Nintendo needs to start pulling the plug on the V1 Switch's. That way OLED wont reach saturation.
They'd never do that, but just imagine, all V1 Switch model just become obsolete, and unusable. Lol

If you think that Metroid Prime 4 will not have that marketing muscle behind it, you've got another thing coming.  Dread's marketing push will look like a soft sell compared to what we will see for MP4.  The world is not ready for the onslaught of Metroid goodness once Nintendo is ready to push.  These are all just predictions and for all we know MP4 ends up being vaporware, but assuming the game goes gold and Nintendo is proud of what Retro has cooked, the media blitz for this game will stun us.  Nintendo doesn't have a lot of striking, mature looking IPs that could be advertised alongside the next Marvel blockbuster, but Metroid is definitely one of those IPs.  I expect theatre ads, YouTube ads, TV spots, not to mention the sheer number of YouTube channels that basically have been starving to hype up this game.  Switch effect will be on full display.

How much marketing was put into Super Mario Bros. Wonder?
How much went into Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom?
How much went into The Super Mario Bros. Movie?

Metroid Prime 4 will not be given that same amount of love as these titles did.
I make the assumption that Metroid Prime 4 will be given the same amount of love in Marketing as Pikmin 4, Fire Emblem, and Kirby and the Forgotten Land.
Nintendo has been pushing so hard to make Fire Emblem a well-known and well-received franchise, like Splatoon.

I agree that Metroid Prime 4 will make a great candidate for a more mature looking genre on the Switch, but Nintendo's audience isn't maturity, it is fun, innovation, and kids. It will have the same maturity as Metroid Dread, if not a bit more.

Woah, woah, woah.  I'm not talking about 20-30 million units, man.  I'm talking about 4 million...on a console with over 130 million users.  And using the Wii and MP3 as a comparison is a false analysis as the Wii audience and userbase is absolutely not the Switch audience and userbase.  

I'm not sure if this conversation is annoying anyone else as I know this topic is about the Switch hitting 160 million units, so if we leave it here or here abouts, I'm fine with that.  I know you like exact figures for your predictions, so what say you?  What will Metroid Prime 4's lifetime sales be on Switch 1 and/or Switch 2 if it appears on both?

If Metroid Prime 4 is indeed Switch 2's title launch game, I imagine Nintendo is putting all its effort to make it blow people's mind away. I expect it sells more than any Metroid game yet and be successfull. Not as the same level of a Mario or Zelda game but still a success. Let's not forget 2017 saw a bunch of heavy-hitter game realeases, so it's not like the Switch 2 would rely only on Metroid Prime 4 to be a success console

Sorry for coming in hot like like, I thought you were thinking they would go to the level of Mario Wonder advertising.
I wouldn't mind them doing that.

I dont think its annoying, and I think that every game, no matter how big or small it is, there will could be the chance that it sells consoles and that is important in the Nintendo Switch's path to +160M. (Especially since US November 2023 was so low). So it is a relevant conversation for this forum. :)

If Nintendo is able to market Metroid Prime 4 (a wonderful, fun, mature-ish game) to a vast audience, then I have no qualms in saying Metroid Prime 4 will be selling 4.8M units (if on both then 8.6M).