The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

javi741 said:

Wow the recent U.S sales numbers for November for the Switch look rough. Estimates have Switch sales dropping 40% compared to last year in NA, and we saw a 40% drop in Japan as well for November, and this was with the value added bundles being permanent this Holiday season and big games like Mario Wonder . Did not expect a drop that significant. Looks like the Switch is reaching saturation quicker then we expected. It was looking like at first that Switch would easily outsell Nintendo's 15M forecast, but now it's looking like it might fall short of it.

Really the best thing Nintendo could do at this point is do actual price cuts on the system, but Nintendo confirmed that it wouldn't happen this fiscal year ending March 2024, so the earliest it could happen in April 2024. I still have my doubts Nintendo would want to do price cuts with the system though cause they would want to force people to just get a Switch 2.

If declines continue this badly, it's goona be difficult to outsell the PS2. Seems like the Switch's natural saturation point would be sales between 145-150M, any sales more would require Nintendo to force it to sell more than it's natural appeal with price cuts, over-extending its life, and new models.

At this point in time the Switch is to have an estimated total sales of 9.47M (including the recent Americas post today).
In order for Nintendo to reach their 15M forecast they must sell 5.53M units Worldwide between Dec-Mar and Europe for November.

I'm guestimating how much is needed to sell for each period to reach 15M:
Based on trends in the past each month after December usually sells just below 1M, so Jan, Feb and Mar will have approx. 3M (for the sake of simple math, but it would look more like 2.7M).
Europe will most likely sell less than the Americas, so I suspect Europe to sell about 0.5M Switch units.
Now based on this guestimate the Nintendo Switch only need to sell +2M units in Worldwide for December.
This is going to be a tricky climb.
I have faith, lets go!

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 13 December 2023