By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Doctor_MG on 06 February 2022
Kristof81 said:

I wouldn't say "the cliff". It's just perfectly normal drop. Past year 5, each year the YoY sales (on average) drop by 20-ish%. The biggest shot in the dark is 2022 perdiction. If that turns out to be true, then 140M lifetime is pretty much given. 

Sure it's not going to drop as quickly as Wii, but more like the DS ... from 23M to 14M, also in year 7. To avoid it, Switch would have to have Gameboy-like sales curve and support.

A 20% drop YoY is relatively normal, but why are you suggesting a 40% drop after that? I mean, to contextualize something like the DS, it's YoY drop was incredibly drastic due to the announcement and subsequent launch of the 3DS. Even when it came to the Wii the first drop was 20% YoY, the second was something like 27% YoY, the third was 35% YoY (year Wii U was announced), and the follow year was over 50% drop (year Wii U came out). 

Just to put it into perspective, the 3DS was announced 5.5 years after the launch of the DS and launched 6.5 years after the launch of the DS. So the Switch 2 would need to have an announcement this year and a launch next year for it to follow a similar pattern, contextually speaking. 



Around the Network
psychicscubadiver on 07 February 2022
Dulfite said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I guess it's less about excitement and more about accepting reality as it is

Well sure, I don't have issues with people coming to terms with it. I've come to terms my hopes are crushed for a Switch 2 in 2023 (or 2024 for that matter now). But there are plenty of people that are just so excited about sales figures because of fanboyism that they are okay with waiting so much longer to be wowed again by a new system. I just want the 6 year cycle to come back. I want to be stunned every 6 years, not every 7-9 years (Sony/Microsoft) or every 12 years (Nintendo).

Are you conceding on our bet? Or want to wait until it's official?



siebensus4 on 07 February 2022
aTokenYeti said:

I would have been skeptical this would be possible until Nintendos quarterly earnings call this week. Nintendo said that the switch was midway through its life. Midway, as in not nearing the end. They clearly plan to support the console for several more years.

Remember that Nintendo said that Switch is in the middle of its life already in 2020. I think that Switch reached about 60 % of its lifetime. A successor usually launches at 80 % of a console's lifetime. In the last 20 % of a consoles life you don't sell that many units anymore.

If Switch is able to reach 160M depends on when a successor launches. If we really get Mario Kart 10/Crossroads for Switch in 2023, then DLC should come in 2024 and a successor should launch in 2025 with Mario Kart 10/Crossroads Deluxe (incl. DLC). If we only see Metroid Prime 4 as the big title for 2023 or just a few smaller Nintendo titles, then we know that Nintendo is holding back games and a successor launches in 2024 - and then I don't see any chance for 160M. I don't expect a more powerful hardware revision anymore.

If 2022 sells below 20M with Zelda BOTW 2, Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Arceus, a successor is very likely in 2024.

Last edited by siebensus4 - on 07 February 2022

Norion on 07 February 2022

This is possible and could come down to how big or small the drop in 2023 is. If it does under 15m that year it probably won't make it.



Eagle367 on 07 February 2022

Entirely in the realm of possibility. Also I think Nintendo will extend the switch life a little more and ride out the shortage. Why would Nintendo risk releasing a new console in these uncertain times? But Nintendo might release a pro version next year. I don't think the switch is anywhere near done that's for sure



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Around the Network
Chicho on 07 February 2022
siebensus4 said:

Remember that Nintendo said that Switch is in the middle of its life already in 2020. I think that Switch reached about 60 % of its lifetime. A successor usually launches at 80 % of a console's lifetime. In the last 20 % of a consoles life you don't sell that many units anymore.

If Switch is able to reach 160M depends on when a successor launches. If we really get Mario Kart 10/Crossroads for Switch in 2023, then DLC should come in 2024 and a successor should launch in 2025 with Mario Kart 10/Crossroads Deluxe (incl. DLC). If we only see Metroid Prime 4 as the big title for 2023 or just a few smaller Nintendo titles, then we know that Nintendo is holding back games and a successor launches in 2024 - and then I don't see any chance for 160M. I don't expect a more powerful hardware revision anymore.

If 2022 sells below 20M with Zelda BOTW 2, Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Arceus, a successor is very likely in 2024.

There is a small possibility that Mario Kart 9 releases on switch but 10 will not.



Kakadu18 on 07 February 2022
Chicho said:
siebensus4 said:

Remember that Nintendo said that Switch is in the middle of its life already in 2020. I think that Switch reached about 60 % of its lifetime. A successor usually launches at 80 % of a console's lifetime. In the last 20 % of a consoles life you don't sell that many units anymore.

If Switch is able to reach 160M depends on when a successor launches. If we really get Mario Kart 10/Crossroads for Switch in 2023, then DLC should come in 2024 and a successor should launch in 2025 with Mario Kart 10/Crossroads Deluxe (incl. DLC). If we only see Metroid Prime 4 as the big title for 2023 or just a few smaller Nintendo titles, then we know that Nintendo is holding back games and a successor launches in 2024 - and then I don't see any chance for 160M. I don't expect a more powerful hardware revision anymore.

If 2022 sells below 20M with Zelda BOTW 2, Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Arceus, a successor is very likely in 2024.

There is a small possibility that Mario Kart 9 releases on switch but 10 will not.

Some people think Mario Kart Tour is 9.



Chicho on 07 February 2022
Kakadu18 said:

Some people think Mario Kart Tour is 9.

That is akin to saying Mario run is a mainline mario game.



Kakadu18 on 07 February 2022
Chicho said:
Kakadu18 said:

Some people think Mario Kart Tour is 9.

That is akin to saying Mario run is a mainline mario game.

Some of those people also say that. Because Nintendo EPD developed them or something like that. Makes no sense to me. Mobile games are never part of the mainline series.



Metallox on 07 February 2022
Kakadu18 said:
Chicho said:

That is akin to saying Mario run is a mainline mario game.

Some of those people also say that. Because Nintendo EPD developed them or something like that. Makes no sense to me. Mobile games are never part of the mainline series.

What's even a mainline Mario game? 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.