Tbh even without a price cut for the Switch 1 I still think it'll have stronger post-successor legs than the DS. I'm predicting the Switch 2 to launch at 400$, so even if the OG Switch doesn't get a price cut you could still buy an OG Switch for 100$ less, for a good portion of people that may be the better option as a cheap way to get into the Switch ecosystem. Plus the Switch Lite will be half of the Switch 2's price, while the Switch Lite isn't anywhere near as popular as a regular Switch it could still have solid sales over the next few years as a very cheap alternative.

Compared to the DS, the DSI Xl was only 20$ cheaper than the 3DS once the 3DS quickly got its price cut after launch, anyone with half a brain cell would've rather just spent the extra 20$ for a much more superior system that plays both new 3DS games and old DS games, the price gap likely won't be as small between the Switch 2 & Switch 1. The DS Lite existed for 100$ at the time, but again the price gap wasn't as large as what we may see between the Switch 1 & Switch 2.

However, there also may be a good possibility that Nintendo may limit production of the OG Switch consoles in favor to produce and/or sell more Switch 2 systems. Once Switch 2 releases, clearly Nintendo would much rather push people towards Switch 2 to sell consumers new games and even older Switch 1 games. Like Soundwave said, I fully expect the Switch Lite to stick around for several years as the very budget friendly console, kinda like how the 2DS was to the Switch. Tbh tho I could see the OG Switch getting phased out though and Nintendo may just sell the Oled to encourage people to spend only 50$ more for the Switch 2, and to at least offer an Oled Switch for those who want it if the Switch 2 ends up just going for an LCD display like rumors are suggesting.

A potential good comparision for the Switch's post-successor sales may be the GBA. The GBA was widely successful and the DS launched at 150$ with GBA backwards combatibility while the GBA was 80$ at the time. Despite the DS looking like the far better device with it of course being far more powerful,innovative touch screen, and the ability to play DS & GBA games, the GBA still was selling impressively well even though the DS was already out and it being only 70$ more expensive.
The GBA sold around 7 Million Units between April 2005-March 2006, and an impressive 15 Million between Arpil 2004-March 2005.

Switch 1 may be able to do similar numbers if it's between 100-200$ cheaper than Switch 2.

It's good to take into context tho that the GBA was only 4 years old when the DS finished it's first year, Switch 1 will be around 8 years old which means that the GBA was far less likely to reach saturation than the Switch 1 at its 8th year, so we need to keep that in mind as well.

Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.

I personally always have the current consoles and the previous generation consoles below my main TV, so Switch Dock, WiiU, P4 Pro (don't have a PS5 yet) and Wii (sorry PS3, it's the fat version using too much space, so I keep the Wii instead). I never owned an X-Box console. 

The visible diminishing returns in graphical quality is also something that concerns me. In the past it was always so exciting when a new console generation started because the games looked that much better and you had no appetite anymore for the old games on the old console. However, since the HD era (PS3/Xbox 360) at least AAA-games just look good to great. Sure, if I compare a PS5/Xbox Series X AAA-game with one from the PS3/Xbox 360 era, I can see a big difference in grahpical fidelty. However, not so much compared to the PS4/Xbox One era and in turn the same is true if I compare PS4/Xbox One games with those from PS3/Xbox 360.

What I want to say with the above is that for me, the WOW-factor is gone since years. I look at the games and see that they look good or great but I'm used to it since two generations. It's kinda sad as this WOW-factor was always something that drived the industry and my personal interest in games.

It's an interesting question how the majority of console buyers see them. Do they just want to play great games and don't care much to which generation they belong, i.e. became more like PC gamers or do they buy the next gen consoles mainly because of the next gen games? In the past you just had your console until the exiting games diden't came out for it anymore. That's when you had to by the new generation. But today, we have an overlap of 3+ years and many casual gamers don't really have an incentive yet to upgrade. On the other hand, people nowadays are just used to buy the newest and shiniest tech (i.e. smartphones) even though they don't need it and their old seond last device would just be good enough for how they use it. We also live in economical interesting times: On the one hand people and especially young people have more money at hand then in the past but on the other hand we are in very difficult times with heavy inflation, products becoming more expensive, high housing and student loan rates, lots of job cuts and salary reductions, etc. For most companies (and individuals) we really can say that the fat 7 years are over and the meager 7 years have begun (not that I feel pity for most of the big companies as they still make a tone of money just less than they used to).

If there is one thing that we should know or have come to expect about the Switch's sales, it's that it's trajectory thus far has been unlike any other Nintendo system that has come before it. No other system in the company's history has maintained THIS level of sales almost halfway into Year 7 - Outside of the Game Boy, which was 100% because of this thing called Pokemon which was a Worldwide Phenomenon and the most popular thing on the planet at the time. Plus, we don't know for sure how much of that was the OG Game Boy and how much was the Game Boy Color since Nintendo combines their sales for whatever reason despite the Color being treated by and large as a successor rather than a premium model.

What the Switch is doing right now is almost entirely on its own merit. Yes, Tears of the Kingdom has something to do with it, and pretty soon, Mario Wonder, but by and large, it's the Switch itself. Something no other Nintendo system before it was able to do at this point in their life cycles.

And its post-successor launch legs will be no different. Just based off what we know now, the Switch's 2024 and beyond lineup so far is a remaster of Luigi's Mansion 2, a new game starring Princess Peach, and Metroid Prime 4. That already looks just as, if not more promising, than what the Wii, Wii U, DS, and 3DS had the year their successors launched. Outside of Metroid: Samus Returns and Dragon Quest XI in Japan, the 3DS got a whole lot of nothing. The Wii and Wii U got jack shit. The only big thing I could think of is the DS getting Black/White just a few weeks before the 3DS came out overseas. After that, it got Black/White 2 a year and half later and not a damn thing besides that. We already know Dragon Quest XII is in development and has been for some time. Whenever we finally get news about that game, I'd be absolutely shocked if it DIDN'T come out on Switch alongside PS5/PS4 like DQXI did on the 3DS alongside the PS4. In fact, that game will probably be the Switch's swan song in Japan. And if history has taught as anything about Game Freak and the Pokemon Co., they'll have one last thing planned for the Switch before formally moving on to Switch 2 for Gen 10. Whether it's another DLC expansion, another remake (Gen 5 remakes/remasters or Let's Go Johto), or a spinoff, I don't think we've seen the last of Pokemon on the Switch.

Bottom line: The Switch's post successor launch lineup games should look MUCH better than the ones of Nintendo's past systems, thanks in large part to the fact that the Switch is getting ALL the software support that before would be divided between 2-3 systems at a time.
And because of that simple fact, the Switch's post successor launch legs should be better by default before you even factor in price - Unless Switch 2 launches at $300-350, which would be INCREDIBLE for the system and really set the table for a fantastic launch! But I expect it to be closer to $400-450 than $300-350.

I have doubts Metroid Prime 4 is a Switch-only game. It's going to end up being a cross-gen launch window title for the Switch 2 as well, like Twilight Princess and BOTW before it. If it was Switch-only I think they would have shown at least a real teaser trailer with some actual footage at this point. We've even gotten a few seconds look at that Princess Peach platformer which is a 2024 game, what exactly is it about Metroid Prime 4 that can't be shown at all even though it's been announced for several years now. Probably because they decided a while ago it was going to be a key Switch 2 launch window title. 

If Switch 2 has some type of VR I wouldn't be surprised if Metroid Prime 4 is going to be one of the major showcase titles for it.

I think Nintendo will release a handheld only Switch Micro that actually fits in your pocket. If they do this, it’s all but guaranteed. It could even get close to 200 million.

A pocketable Switch (even this late in the game with technology getting better) would either be expensive or have horrible battery life.

There's no way a handheld-only Switch that small would sell below $300 unless it's years and years off. 

I do miss handhelds that fit in your pocket. 3DS (OG) and Vita (both models) are just barely pocketable for most. 

I would only buy a Switch Micro as a backup and nice to have system if it was $150 or under. And as I said, that would probably be years into Switch 2's life before they could get it that cheap. 

Don't think that's possible without a die shrink and I don't think Nintendo or Nvidia want to spend money to shrink the Tegra X1 (very old chip by this time). 

Unless there is some kind of thing where they physically need the chip on the Switch 2 SoC, but that would be not ideal at all. In the days of things like the GBA Micro, Nintendo was using just sorta standard ARM processors that was a lot easier to do things like that back then. 

That's going to be the main issue I think. 

Nintendo will want the consumer who today is buying a Switch at $299.99-$349.99 to buy the Switch 2 immediately in 2024 for a number of obvious reasons (faster userbase for Switch 2, that consumer can then be sold Switch 1 AND Switch 2 software, Nintendo doesn't have to convince them to upgrade again in 2-3 years that consumer is locked in). 

I don't really care either way so long as Switch 2 comes out soon, but it would make a lot of sense for them in that situation to squeeze Switch Regular and Switch OLED production down to a limited quantity and force people with $300+ in their wallet/credit card to have to channel that money into a Switch 2 instead. 

Really it's better for the consumer too, a parent trying to cheap out for example and getting a Switch at $299.99 when they could spend just a little more at $399.99 (possibly) and get the newest system which is going to have new software support for another 7-8+ years is really just forcing the consumer to do the right thing for themselves/kid they are buying for too. 

You look at the PS5/PS4 today ... would Sony rather have only 35 million PS5s sold versus 41 million PS4s but more PS4s sold because they discounted the system and kept supply high on it? Obviously it's much better for them to have the 41 million PS5 owners even if a chunk of those consumers were really OK with just buying the PS4 but sorta got pushed into getting the PS5. There's no benefit to cannibalizing your next-gen console sales, you're better off forcing people to have to buy the new system. Unless there is are extenuating circumstances, like for example Nintendo didn't have any assurance in 2016/17 that the Switch was going to be a hit (not smart to completely phase out the 3DS in that case) or there is a massive cost gap in generational hardware (3DS was sometimes as low as $99.99-$149.99 versus Switch at $299.99) and a library difference (3DS/DS library is incompatible with the Switch).

Obviously, no company wants to cannibalize their new product by actively promoting the predecessor product. Ideally, every company wants their consumers to buy the newest (and most expensive) product, that's a no-brainer. However, not promoting doesn't mean to kill-off the old product. If the old product is still popular it will naturally continue to sell well (given its age). That's what will happen to Switch 1, no pormotion by Nintendo anymore but the thing will still sell well, considering its age. Nintendo will not call those buyers and try to convince them to buy the Switch 2 instead because essentially it's also a Switch 1 and has so many more advantages. A portion of the late buyers are simply not informed and buy the old product - no loss for Nintendo as those people usually aren't as engaged into the ecosystem anyway (i.e. they will buy 3-4 games and that's it). Others simply buy an additonal system (or two or three) for their child(ren). For their kids, they don't want to spent too much money (i.e. Switch 2 will be too expensive for that). Other late buyers probably just make an instant buy on black friday or whenever they have that extra money at hand. There are actually various scenarios why people still buy a Switch 1 in 2024, 2025 and even 2026.

Or Nintendo could do something similar to the DS-3DS ... they purposefully cut off DS stock. I mean sure you could buy a DS for about a year afterwards, but they definitely stopped shipping them in big amounts. I just don't think for Nintendo there's a whole lot of upside to selling Switch 1's at $300-$350 a pop in 2024 past the point of Switch 2 launch (or near to it even). That person should just buy a Switch 2, it's better for them, better for Nintendo, so even if Switch 2 doesn't have 3DS' initial problems, I could still see them wanting to push that angle. 

Sony has done the same thing with the PS4 even though they easily probably could keep selling the PS4 for another few years (PS4 Pro is gone completely it seems like). 

For kids, I think Nintendo will keep the Switch Lite, but I wouldn't be surprised if shipments for that are on the thin side too. 

They'll make just enough I think where the people who really, really can't afford it or need only a Switch 1 only and won't budge for whatever reason to be able to get one is my guess. Just like you can get a PS4 right now, they're just not nearly as widely stocked/shipped.

Switch 2 again probably IS a Switch 1 in Nintendo's eyes (now if you're only interested in totalling up hardware totals by strict product categories, of course you're not going to be happy about that, but that's not really Nintendo's problem). 

In Nintendo's view, if you're in the market for a hybrid console you can buy a Switch 1 in fall 2024 and beyond. It's called a Switch 2.