For hardware sales it's hard to say how much impact it had, because the launch of the SMB movie blends right into the anticipation for Tears of the Kingdom.

For software it's pretty obvious when various Mario games have risen in the software charts, be it in the eShop or countries we get lists from. So while we can't exactly quantify the SMB movie's impact on hardware sales, it would be strange if the renewed popularity of Mario games were restricted to existing Switch owners only.

Furukawa talking about TOTK

Even if they hit 15 mill this fiscal year, which may or may not happen, it's not like they are likely to be able to maintain that for the following fiscal year. Sales for the Switch would be like what? 10-12 million the following fiscal year (no Zelda, no Mario movie in 2024)? It's pretty likely Switch 2 is 2024 as selling that range (sub 15 million) is somewhere Nintendo likely doesn't want to stay in and with only one hardware product line it isn't like the old days where like "well OK the Game Boy and SNES sales are slowing but we've got the N64 coming out to boost overall hardware sales". 

I can’t imagine many people are expecting anything other than a 2024 release at this point.

2023 seems off the table, there’s just no way they would forecast 15m if a successor was coming this fall and like you said, a 2025 release would be letting Switch sales get too low for comfort.

I think fall 2024 is when it will release, this gives Switch one more holiday all to itself and I assume they have a big Mario game coming (Nintendo would be stupid not to have a new Mario game to take advantage of the Mario Movie hype).

Announce Switch 2 around this time next year with a teaser trailer then around September have a presentation that goes over launch date, price, launch window titles, etc. and release it in November.

I think so basically, though I think they will announce Switch 2 more likely around March 2024 but otherwise yeah I would agree with what you're saying give or take maybe a month of two. I really prefer September launches anyway, it's much nicer weather and not having to lineup in the middle of the Christmas gong show shopping season is so much nicer too, I'd like to see Nintendo return to that. 

The moment we saw Zelda be a May 2023 game was the moment we knew there was no new hardware for 2023 happening, because if there was then they almost certainly would have shuffled Zelda around a few months to launch alongside that. So the whole 2023 debate has kinda become anti-climactic. 

I don't think really what the Switch does this fiscal year really impacts anything long term. Nintendo already I think has made up their decision on when Switch 2 launches and they've made that decision a while ago, this isn't like Nintendo is hanging on the edge of their seats and if Switch hits 15.1 million, Switch 2 doesn't get released in 2024, or if it hits 14.2 million Nintendo just dumps the Switch, lol. Like this transitionary time line is already well into place and where you will see it already is probably in the Switch's library lineup in the next 12 months, it may not be as heavy hitting because some, if not a majority of dev resources have to go to the new system. 

Probably I would say the more pertinent actual question is how does Nintendo treat the Switch after Switch 2 has been announced. With the 3DS, the 3DS was allowed to hang around and sell for a few more years and get a few more big releases. With the DS, Nintendo choked DS shipments almost immediately to a trickle. This is actually probably why you want the Switch 2 to have a strong launch and a strong early sales cycle in 2024 ... because if there are hiccups, odds are Nintendo will go into panic mode and cut Switch shipments off sooner rather than later like they did the DS/3DS to force migration over to Switch 2. If the Switch 2 sells well out of the gate to higher end (possibly $399.99 range) early adopters ... then Nintendo probably is more relaxed and more apt to let the Switch 1 serve as a lower cost option for a few years like they did with the 3DS. 

Yeah I like September as a launch month as well, sales are going to be strong for the first month or so regardless of what time of year you release because of diehard fans so releasing during the holidays always seemed like a waste to me.

As for what they do with Switch once Switch 2 releases, I think it will stick around for awhile. Something like this

Switch Lite-stay at $199.99 or small cut to $169.99, remains budget friendly model, eventually replaced by Switch Lite 2.

Switch-discontinued

Switch OLED-price cut to $299.99, replaces the role that OG Switch currently holds which is basically make OLED model look like a great deal in comparison.

Switch 2-$349.99, by far most popular sku as people view the premium features as being well worth the extra $50 over OLED model.

Similar to PS/XB, I see many games being cross-gen for the first couple years, the major selling point will be better visuals/resolution/performance on Switch 2 and 3rd party ports of games that couldn’t run on Switch.

Ooh I like that idea of a September launch rather than November.

Then they can get their launch sales out of the way, and load up stock for a separate big sales period during the holiday season a couple months later. It works as long as they've got millions of systems stockpiled by the Fall. If they aren't going to have millions of systems stockpiled then holiday launch makes more sense because you don't want a strong launch and then have nothing extra two-three months later for the holidays.

Also September launch would let them do 3D Mario at launch and then MK9 as the holiday title. Or maybe even 3D Mario at launch, MK9 in October, and then a big holiday title if they have a third big game ready in the launch window.

@Slownenberg I also like the idea of a September launch and agree that 3D Mario & Mario Kart should be the main titles for the Switch successor that holiday. I actually feel that the November title would be a Pokemon title for Switch 1 (like a Crystal remake or something simple such as that), kind of like how Switch's first November had a Pokemon title for the previous system. They could launch Switch 2 in September with 3D Mario, have Mario Kart in October and then something else in December.

It's kinda easy to overlook how much bigger Mario Kart is than just about every Nintendo IP these days.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe outsold Mario Odyssey + NSMBU Deluxe + Mario 3D World combined almost, lol.

It's a *monster*.

I think Nintendo will want it as early as possible, MK8 Deluxe was very early in the Switch's life cycle. It also makes sense for NSO subscriptions, you can release the game with only say 24 tracks and then keep adding DLC packs of 4-8 new tracks to beef up the roster over time but more importantly you're getting people locked in to NSO subscriptions.

Possible too that Mario Kart Next will incorporate a few more Smash like elements where it has more characters from other Nintendo IP so it's even more of an "event" game.

July/August/September launches are just much nicer if you live in a climate where you actually have a winter. And I agree it makes more sense to get your own early adopters and then have a second wave of buyers over the holiday. I never honestly really liked when Nintendo moved to November launches, August/September in the past used to be "Nintendo time" for new hardware launches before the GameCube (Super NES, N64, Virtual Boy all launched in August or September, Game Boy was August too I think or really close to August). Dreamcast and Playstation 1 launched in September too unless my memory is going. 

I'd be pretty happy with June or July too though. 

Mario Karts seems to release in May. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mario Kart 9 release 6 months-9 months after the console release, and not during a holiday. It’s a title that creates its own holiday. I also think they’ll want at least 10 million units in players hands before they release it.