That isn't very accurate, by July 2011 the 3DS's price dropped to 170$, meaning for nearly half the year of 2011 the 3DS was only 20$ more expensive than the DSI and 70$ more expensive than the DS Lite. The price gap will be noticeably bigger between Switch 1 & 2

When accounting for inflation, it's pretty much the same. Switch also has way more market saturation than any console before it. I don't see people buying Switch 1 when(basically) for an extra hundred dollars, they can have the future proof console. If price was everything, Series S would've sold faster than PS5. Now if Nintendo drops the price of Switch 1, there's a case to be made. 

Accounting for inflation doesn't change anything here.

DS to 3DS price comparisons in August 2011 were DS Lite ($99), DSi ($149), DSi XL ($169), 3DS ($169). That's a setup that creates an immense disadvantage for the old generation, hence why DS sales dropped so steeply in 2011. It's a recurring event in this thread that eldanielfire doesn't want to acknowledge this.

Switch to Switch 2 price comparisons are Switch Lite ($199), Switch ($299 with a pack-in), OLED ($349), Switch 2 ($449). That's a setup that threatens the OLED model, but not the other two Switch SKUs which are significantly cheaper.

End of life sales see a higher concentration of sales that go to parents of kids who get their first console. $199 for the Switch Lite is a much better offering than $449 for a Switch 2, because there's also the consideration that kids break things. Talks about saturation are all fine and good, but at the same time there are a lot of new kids born every year, so we are looking at sales to people who weren't even alive when Switch launched in 2017. The only thing you address in your post are people who are looking to buy the best Switch possible, so of course your take falls flat on its face in no time.

Good point, I just think with Nintendo’s family friendly image, they don’t want $450 hardware to be their only option going forward and you won’t see Switch 1 get completely phased out until Switch Lite 2 releases 2.5-3 years from now for like $299 or something.

The only way I see them killing Switch prematurely is if Switch 2 has a 3DS situation and is struggling out of the gate and they need to do a drastic emergency price cut and reduce competition with themselves.

I don’t think Switch 2 will suffer that same fate because 3DS struggled for a combination of reasons that don’t apply to Switch 2. It was a combo of high price, consumer confusion, unwanted gimmick and software drought.

Price-this could potentially apply to Switch 2. It seems like a fair enough price based on the hardware but could be too high for many consumers when Switch 1 offers cheaper options.

Customer Confusion-For people who aren’t die hard Nintendo fans, it was easy to confuse 3DS as simply a DS revision with a 3D screen. This time Nintendo went with the safe naming convention of just adding a 2 to the end so nobody should be confused.

Gimmick-3D screen was neat but wasn’t a major hook that caused people to flock to the system. Switch 2 is a standard console upgrade that doesn’t rely on some untested new concept. It has some new things like mouse controls, chat & a camera but these are just extra features rather than the main selling point.

Software Drought-3DS launched in March with Nintendogs as the big 1st party title then went 8 months with just a couple N64 remasters until Nov/Dec when 3D Mario & Mario Kart released. Switch 2 releases with Mario Kart right out the gate then just 1.5 months later has its 2nd major release with Donkey Kong*, then a couple enhanced ports with added content (Mario Party/3D Kirby) then a couple smaller tier exclusives (Kirby Riders/Hyrule Warriors) and a couple major cross-gen titles (Metroid Prime/Pokemon Legends). All this in the first 6 months.

*I think people are underestimating Donkey Kong, look at what ambitious, open level design did for 3D Zelda, 3D Mario & even 3D Kirby. Plus I’m pretty sure it’s being developed by the 3D Mario team like has been heavily rumored, I really think it’s a 10+ million seller.

I think both sides (over 160 and under 160) took a hit recently. Those that believe it will go over 160 took a hit due to Pokemon and Metroid being reshuffled as crossgen, this will obviously lower the impact on Switch console sales. Those that believe it will sale under 160 took a hit due to Switch 2 pricing, alot of you wanted that $399.99 price tag because it would have lowered the need for Switch continued sales. I'm still going with over because Switch 2 pricing and continued Switch game releases should provide the legs. Does look like a slower crawl though but I'm thinking next fy 5.5 million (April 25 to March 26), then 2, and 1 should just get it at 161 million by March 2028. Switch 2 lite i don't see coming before 2028 if at all *gulp*.

That's a good point, there is a double edge to the situation - in some ways the Switch 2 will take sales from Switch 1, but in other ways Switch 1 sales benefit from being an entry level machine.

Switch 1, while not being officially marketed as such, can be seen as an entry level Switch 2 given how many of the games are going to be cross generational with the New Edition upgrades on many key titles already out and titles to come.. What that means is that buying and investing into a Switch 1 this year won't go to waste for the future when you want to upgrade... and even get better versions of the games you want to play again. Presumably most to all of a library will carry over, depending on which games you purchased. And if you're a new Switch 1 owner, or a prospective Switch 1 owner, you already know some of the games you can buy now and play in Switch 1 mode, and then upgrade them later to the Switch 2 Editions for free or a small fee depending on the title - Nintendo's so far confirmed 12 titles with free upgrades, most of them more recent games (except ARMS and Mario Odyssey, which are old games with a free Switch 2 Edition update).

I'm looking forward to a probable Witcher 3 upgrade, as it's one of my favourite games to play during travel.

Either way! This works in the Switch 1's favour. But I think Nintendo will almost certainly have to lower the price the Switch 1 to capitalize on this, because a percentage of Switch 2 adopters are going to be flooding the second hand market which will negatively impact the sales for anyone open to actually buying used property - although, this won't impact most parents, as they tend to buy these consoles as gifts, and tend to buy new. Difficult to say how it will go. Nintendo did make some attempts to try and add value to keeping your old Switch, but I don't know how much that will mitigate the flooding of the used market, dropping the price by upping the supply.

Ball is in Nintendo's court. I suspect we'll have answers on May 8th, when they're expected to announce their business plans for the fiscal year.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2011/110425e.pdf - This is the first fiscal report after the 3DS launch, despite massive sale decline, the DS went on to sell another 8 million units after the release of the 3DS. The DS also received support, including Pokemon Black and White 2. The Switch looks like it's going to have much stronger support than that, as it's getting a Pokemon and Metroid game. While the cross gen games didn't lift the Wii U, keep in mind, very few people wanted to play that console at any time during its generation, however, Switch has shown that many people want to play that. Even the Wii managed to eek out 4.5 million sales after the Wii U despite being effectively dead a year earlier and only new Just Dance, Lego, Skylanders, and Zumba games really supporting it after the Wii U release - I'd guess most of that 4.5 million sold on old games like Mario Kart Wii.

But anyway, my point is, people looking for Nintendo's version of an entry level machine (think Intel i3, Mac mini, MacBook Air, or iPhone SE) can get a Switch 1. There is a market for these machines for people who still want a Nintendo console, but are unable to afford the Switch 2 or feel the library of Switch 2 won't be a necessary purchase until further down the line. Nintendo, IMO, can better capitalize this by lowering the price of the Switch 1 line to capture low income households and individuals.

It's crazy to think about that! Kids born during the launch year of the Switch are now 7 or 8 years old! Many of them want to have a gaming device!

The Switch 2 Joy-Con's even have reduced functionality: They have no IR-Camera!

Something that's not being considered here is future software. Sure Pokémon is going to Switch 1 but what about Mario Kart? The next Mario and Donkey Kong? What Pokémon fans doesn't have a Switch by now?  Not to mention Switch 2 version sales will canabalize 1, can't see Pokémon alone keeping Switch 1 afloat. With the way devs have been complaining about Switch 1, don't see too many cross gen titles coming. Had Mario Kart World been cross gen, I'd feel very different as that's their biggest title. 

I'm pretty sure that was the age where I actually graduated from PSOne to an Xbox. I remember spending the first hour spinning around in a dark room on Halo because I couldn't understand twin-stick controls lol.

What are the odds that if Switch does manage to hit 160M, that Nin announces that, but then never says another word about future Switch sales, so nobody ever knows if Switch or PS2 sales were the highest ever, leading everyone to basically call it a tie?