Jumpin said:
That's a good point, there is a double edge to the situation - in some ways the Switch 2 will take sales from Switch 1, but in other ways Switch 1 sales benefit from being an entry level machine.
Switch 1, while not being officially marketed as such, can be seen as an entry level Switch 2 given how many of the games are going to be cross generational with the New Edition upgrades on many key titles already out and titles to come.. What that means is that buying and investing into a Switch 1 this year won't go to waste for the future when you want to upgrade... and even get better versions of the games you want to play again. Presumably most to all of a library will carry over, depending on which games you purchased. And if you're a new Switch 1 owner, or a prospective Switch 1 owner, you already know some of the games you can buy now and play in Switch 1 mode, and then upgrade them later to the Switch 2 Editions for free or a small fee depending on the title - Nintendo's so far confirmed 12 titles with free upgrades, most of them more recent games (except ARMS and Mario Odyssey, which are old games with a free Switch 2 Edition update).
I'm looking forward to a probable Witcher 3 upgrade, as it's one of my favourite games to play during travel.
Either way! This works in the Switch 1's favour. But I think Nintendo will almost certainly have to lower the price the Switch 1 to capitalize on this, because a percentage of Switch 2 adopters are going to be flooding the second hand market which will negatively impact the sales for anyone open to actually buying used property - although, this won't impact most parents, as they tend to buy these consoles as gifts, and tend to buy new. Difficult to say how it will go. Nintendo did make some attempts to try and add value to keeping your old Switch, but I don't know how much that will mitigate the flooding of the used market, dropping the price by upping the supply.
Ball is in Nintendo's court. I suspect we'll have answers on May 8th, when they're expected to announce their business plans for the fiscal year.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2011/110425e.pdf - This is the first fiscal report after the 3DS launch, despite massive sale decline, the DS went on to sell another 8 million units after the release of the 3DS. The DS also received support, including Pokemon Black and White 2. The Switch looks like it's going to have much stronger support than that, as it's getting a Pokemon and Metroid game. While the cross gen games didn't lift the Wii U, keep in mind, very few people wanted to play that console at any time during its generation, however, Switch has shown that many people want to play that. Even the Wii managed to eek out 4.5 million sales after the Wii U despite being effectively dead a year earlier and only new Just Dance, Lego, Skylanders, and Zumba games really supporting it after the Wii U release - I'd guess most of that 4.5 million sold on old games like Mario Kart Wii.
But anyway, my point is, people looking for Nintendo's version of an entry level machine (think Intel i3, Mac mini, MacBook Air, or iPhone SE) can get a Switch 1. There is a market for these machines for people who still want a Nintendo console, but are unable to afford the Switch 2 or feel the library of Switch 2 won't be a necessary purchase until further down the line. Nintendo, IMO, can better capitalize this by lowering the price of the Switch 1 line to capture low income households and individuals. |
