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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

SegaHeart said:

Anybody got number how much Nintendo sells from October - December per year?

+10 million



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Hopefully they can hit 10 million this holiday as well! I could see them reaching 10m, though I imagine it will be lower than 2021, which would still be respectable numbers.



I'm curious, does Nintendo release how much the different models sold? i.e. how many lites, oled, etc.



Proxy-Pie said:

I'm curious, does Nintendo release how much the different models sold? i.e. how many lites, oled, etc.

They do.

Original switch: 81.68mil

Switch Lite: 17.87mil

Switch Oled: 3.9mil

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/220203e.pdf

Last edited by deerox - on 03 April 2022

deerox said:

I can't imagine that the Switch would be able to sell another 20mil in Europe. Just look at how well the system have sold in the region so far

13,88mil (2017-2019)
20,70mil (2020) (+6,82mil)
26,98mil (2021) (+6,28mil)

Even if the system sells 5mil in both 2022 and 2023, it still needs to sell another 10mil after that. It doesn't seem very likely.

Switch is up YOY in Europe and isnt showing any signs of slowing down, especially with all the announced titles that will hit this year.

If they can manage to produce enough stock then I can definitely see Switch selling over 6.5 million this year, likely even 7+ million.

That will only leave about 13 million for 2023 and onwards which is very doable



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brute said:
deerox said:

I can't imagine that the Switch would be able to sell another 20mil in Europe. Just look at how well the system have sold in the region so far

13,88mil (2017-2019)
20,70mil (2020) (+6,82mil)
26,98mil (2021) (+6,28mil)

Even if the system sells 5mil in both 2022 and 2023, it still needs to sell another 10mil after that. It doesn't seem very likely.

Switch is up YOY in Europe and isnt showing any signs of slowing down, especially with all the announced titles that will hit this year.

If they can manage to produce enough stock then I can definitely see Switch selling over 6.5 million this year, likely even 7+ million.

That will only leave about 13 million for 2023 and onwards which is very doable

We don't know if the Switch is up YoY in Europe as a whole until we see Nintendo's financial report in May.

From April to December, Switch was down YoY. (about -14%)



Torpoleon said:

Hopefully they can hit 10 million this holiday as well! I could see them reaching 10m, though I imagine it will be lower than 2021, which would still be respectable numbers.

If it can then that would be a record, no video game hardware has ever sold 10 million units in four individual quarters.



All signs are pointing to the Switch having a noticeably longer lifespan than the DS. We have to remember that only 5.5 Years after the DS released the 3DS was unveiled as Nintendo was showing clear intent that they were already moving on from the DS, which led to a sharp decline in sales in 2010 and after.

The Switch won't be in that position, no way that a Switch successor gets unveiled in late 2022 at the 5.5 Year timeframe of the Switch, unlike the DS. There have been zero rumors or signs pointing towards a Switch successor coming anytime soon unlike the DS, with Furukawa also still stating Switch is at the midpoint of its lifecycle despite being 5 years old. So Switch at the very least would have a 1 year longer lifespan and likely more than 1 year over the DS, which will be a huge advantage for the Switch and could easily recover from the ~9 Million Deficit it current has against the DS.

Also you could easily tell that the DS by the 5.5-year mark was definitely not as prioritized by Nintendo as much anymore. Nintendo felt more pressure to release the 3DS earlier than expected cause of the pressure of competing against the up and coming mobile games market which seemed novel and the future of portable gaming at the time and also the PS Vita releasing. Compared to now where Nintendo has no legitimate competitor with no pressure to keep up with the competition cause there is no competition against the Switch. This will easily make the Switch's lifespan longer than the DS and it should be enough to outsell the DS & PS2.

Last edited by javi741 - on 06 April 2022

The longer the Switch stays on the market the more I believe that Switch could end up being the best selling console of all time. Switch has had a 350k baseline almost this entire year so far. Yes, this is expected to decrease, so 300k baseline may end up being more typical during the summer months. However, a good rule of thumb for Switch is multiply the baseline by 40 then add 10M. If Switch can hold that 300k baseline...22M is definitely in the cards.

Basically, by the end of 2022 Switch will be at around 123M units sold. If Nintendo holds off launching a successor until holiday 2024 and doesn't announce the successor until after holiday of 2023, Switch has a VERY good chance of climbing over that 160M mark. IMO, Nintendo DS would have if they would have launched 3DS in 2012




Lowball Switch Sales Prediction:

March 2022: 107.65M

(18 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2023: 125.65M

(12 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2024: 137.65M

(5 Million Fiscal Year, Switch 2 releases)

March 2025: 142M

Lowball Switch Prediction: ~143 Million Sold

Based on this, it's pretty much impossible at this point that the Switch will sell below 140 Million, even a super pessimistic/lowball prediction should put the Switch at least above the 140 Million mark at the minimum. So even if the Switch falls off hard it still will be within the PS2/DS's reach.

Realistic Switch Sales Prediction:

March 2022: 107.65M

(20 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2023: 127.65M

(16 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2024: 143.65M

(8 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2025: 151.65M

(3 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2026: 154.65M

Realistic Switch Prediction:~157 Million Sold

In my opinion, this is the most realistic sales scenario for the Switch. However even I feel like I was lowballing this prediction just a little bit, it's just uncertain to predict when Nintendo will release its successor. However, Nintendo easily has the capability to sell even more with the Switch, I'm just unsure if they actually will.A realistic Switch sales scenario should hover the Switch around PS2/DS levels.

Optimistic Switch Sales Prediction:

March 2022: 107.65M

(21 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2023: 128.65M

(19 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2024: 147.65M

(13 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2025: 160.65M

(6 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2026: 166.65M

(3 Million Fiscal Year)

March 2027:169.65M

Optimistic Prediction: ~171 Million Sold

I think the Switch could legitimately sell anywhere between 140M-175M lifetime. I am leaning towards the Switch selling in the upper 150 Million range right now, around 157 Million.