3DS sales actually had a small uptick as Switch launched and held fantastically in 2018 as well. You probably already know that. The simple fact that Nintendo is probably going to have price cut the darn thing eventually and it will be an excellent budget option in comparison to Switch 2. Even if they don't, Switch 2 might be expensive enough in comparison for Switch to still do well if Nintendo keeps manufacturing them and marketing in a smart way. 

Now do I think Switch sales are going to increase YOY next year? Very little chance. Switch is closer to its saturation point than 3DS was, is more expensive and will be similar to Switch 2 in many ways whereas Switch and 3DS are quite dissimilar. Especially, because Switch Lite wasn't even a thing until 2019 so if you wanted Switch as purely a handheld you still had to pay for the dock, HDMI cord, etc. 

As someone who wants to buy Switch 2 within the first 6 months, I hope Nintendo doesn't start it at $450 USD or higher as a way to still make Switch look attractive at its prices. 

Switch has been the most interesting platform to watch the sales of ever in my time and I'm eager to see where it goes. Even if it wasn't Nintendo's goal with Switch, you best believe they will call it the best-selling platform of all-time when it likely passes PS2. If nothing else, I'm sure they'll mention it passing DS globally and make a big deal out of that. 

Switch will not stop and am excited to see how these numbers will increase with Metroid Prime coming out!!

I'm not so sure about a price cut since the Switch Lite would already fit for being a budget option and they might not wanna loss out on revenue doing that. It is a possibility though but either way I do expect the Switch's fall off to be closer to the DS than the 3DS due to those reasons you mentioned.

I do think them making at least a bit of a big deal about it surpassing the DS would be smart due to the positive buzz it would create. Make a tweet about it and perhaps even upload a short celebratory video. And they should do the same if it passes the PS2 and becomes the best selling system ever since being able to say that the Switch 2 is the successor to the best selling console ever would be worth something.

I find it interesting that we are in the same situation as last year. Last year, for FY24, Nintendo forcasted 15m and many here believed that this number can't be reached, many believed a more realistic number is in the 13m range, some more pessimistic in the 12m range, underlined by a Q&A where Nintendo admitted that it will be tough to reach those 15m. In the end, they even surpassed it and shipped 15.7m.

Now, Nintendo forcasted 13.5m and everybody thought it is outrageous (incl. myself). Most believed in a range of 10-12m, some more pessimistic even below that, again underlined by a Q&A where Nintendo admitted it will be tough to reach those 13.5m.

Of course the situation is different than last year: no big bangers like Zelda: TOTK and Super Mario Bros. Wonder and the saturation point of the Switch is even closer. Besides, it's possible that an ambitious forecast will simply not be reached. These are all the main negative factors but we also have positive factors:

1. Declining percentual failures: If you forecast 25m but negatively fail by 20% it was a bad forecast but you still ship 20m which is still a high number. On the other hand, if you forecast 13.5m but negatively fail by 20% you end at 10.8m. Although, the percentual failure is the same as before, i.e. 20%, this latter forecast is much worse than the former. This is because once the console is in decline and came down to yearly shippings of below 15m, naturally, the margin of error in forecasts become much lower and with each year from here on out, the margin of error will become even lower. In other words, the margin of error we have for the Switch in FY25 is not higher than 10% which in turn means the lowest possible Nintendo will ship is 12.15m.
   
   
2. Nintendo said the following in answer 2 of the Q&A (Link: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240508e.pdf ): „...We will release new titles this fiscal year and, in addition, many people have watched The Super Mario Bros. Movie through various means since its theatrical release, so with factors like that, we believe we will be able to continue to generate new demand. Also, there is a large catalog of existing Nintendo Switch games, so if we can effectively convey the appeal of these evergreen titles, we believe we can also pursue the demand for multiple systems in the same household, born from the unique value of Nintendo Switch... .“
   
   In answer 5 they said the following: „... This year we will need to implement various initiatives to sell the forecasted number of Nintendo Switch. During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software, and we also conveyed the appeal of having multiple units of Nintendo Switch in a household. We plan to implement various initiatives to approach 13.5 million units of sales in the current fiscal year as well... .“
   
   

Nintendo mentions "various initiatives to approach 13.5 million". It is everybody's guess what these initiatives will be but certainly it will not be nothing. Nintendo also mentioned that "During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software". I think you can bet that exactly this will be one of the initiatives for this holiday season as well. Maybe Nintendo will start to make permanent bundles with a free game (plus 3 months of free NSO) and/or make permanent price cuts. Nintendo Selects of the back catalogue would be another initiative. The ultimate initiative would be a new SKU, in that case, as mentioned in former posts, a well priced TV-only Switch would make the most sense. The already announced Zelda: EOW Special Edition Switch Lite is yet another initiative.

Bolded: No Tears of the Kingdom but instead a Zelda where you actually play Zelda for once. No Super Mario Wonder but a Mario & Luigi instead (the first time where's a Paper Mario and a Mario & Luigi on one system btw). Add to this a new Mario Party, the Marvel vs Capcom and Ace Attorney collections which will definitely bring some fans, same for Dragon Quest I-III 2D-HD. Finally, there's still the possibility that Metroid Prime 4 launches within the tail end of the fiscal year (like February or March 2025) and boost the sales from there. In 2023 Switch sales were high in Spring but disappointing during the holiday season, with all those releases coming Summer and Fall instead, I expect this year to be the reverse and Nintendo to reach it's target due to better holiday sales than last year. 

Italic: Yeah, some kind of promotions will definitely happen. A Switch with at least one pack-in title (I would love to see a Switch coming with both Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom in one bundle)  is pretty much guaranteed for the holidays, and a small permanent price cut is also certainly in the cards in my opinion. Hardware prices have dropped again after spiking during Covid and it's inflationary aftermath, so I think this could very much be an option now.

Underscored: I very much doubt they'll waste production capacity now on a new model right when they're gonna start to produce the successor. That simply doesn't make much business sense at all.

This is the same company that released the GameBoy Micro almost a year after the launch of the DS. And the New 2DS just 4 months after the launch of the Switch. Them releasing a newer Switch model even after releasing Switch 2 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. 

I think that the amount of games that could be system sellers should not be underestimated. I believe every game that sells 10 million must have sold to people outside of the current fanbase (it's not backed up by anything just an assumption that massive sales must reach the mainstream at some point) 

In the FY we may have Mario party, pokemon hiting over 10 million. We've also got zelda pushing hardware. For this FY if you look at estimates for how well some of these games may sell 13.5 million doesn't seem impossible. 

Zelda 3-9M

Mario and Luigi 3.5M

Luigi's mansion 1-4M

Metroid prime 4-10M

Pokemon ZA 15M

Professor Layton 2-4M

Mario Party 4-12M

Unless MP4 is a bridge title and release title for the successor to the Switch. Then it will not drive sales of the Switch. And even without a multiplatform release MP4 won’t drive sales. Metroid is a niche IP not a system seller (and Metroid for the NES is still the best game in the franchise :P ).

With all that said I will get MP4 for either the Switch or a potential successor if it’s the launch title.

But I still doubt Switch will pass 160 M sales. And it really doesn’t matter just as it stands now Switch has been a wild success.

@Spindel Where do you see Switch's final lifetime sales roughly ending at?

If the successor comes out this holiday, Q1 2025 or early Q2 2025 as rumored, I don’t think it will pass 150 M.