The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Wman1996]

Norion said:

CheddarPlease said:

My opinion is that the only way it misses 160m is if it fails to hit 11m this year, which isn't completely out of the question, but the point I think we were trying to make is that 11m as a baseline basically puts anything less than 160m out of the probable realm of possibility

The Switch falling off quickly after its successor comes out is a real possibility though depending on what Nintendo does. As I said it wouldn't need to have declines as big as the DS had after the 3DS came out to fall short. It had a 70% decline followed by 54% where for the Switch 60% followed by 45% wouldn't make it if it does 11m this fiscal year.

Though that's assuming it does 11m. If it does 12m it'll basically be guaranteed to make it whereas if it only does 10m then it would most likely miss it without a price cut I think so it really is coming down to the wire now.

3DS sales actually had a small uptick as Switch launched and held fantastically in 2018 as well. You probably already know that. The simple fact that Nintendo is probably going to have price cut the darn thing eventually and it will be an excellent budget option in comparison to Switch 2. Even if they don't, Switch 2 might be expensive enough in comparison for Switch to still do well if Nintendo keeps manufacturing them and marketing in a smart way. 

Now do I think Switch sales are going to increase YOY next year? Very little chance. Switch is closer to its saturation point than 3DS was, is more expensive and will be similar to Switch 2 in many ways whereas Switch and 3DS are quite dissimilar. Especially, because Switch Lite wasn't even a thing until 2019 so if you wanted Switch as purely a handheld you still had to pay for the dock, HDMI cord, etc. 

As someone who wants to buy Switch 2 within the first 6 months, I hope Nintendo doesn't start it at $450 USD or higher as a way to still make Switch look attractive at its prices. 

Switch has been the most interesting platform to watch the sales of ever in my time and I'm eager to see where it goes. Even if it wasn't Nintendo's goal with Switch, you best believe they will call it the best-selling platform of all-time when it likely passes PS2. If nothing else, I'm sure they'll mention it passing DS globally and make a big deal out of that.