By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

PAOerfulone on 09 May 2024

Wow, 13.5 million for FY25?
That's above even my most optimistic projection! I was thinking 10-12 million range. I still think that is what will ultimately happen, but who knows? Maybe Nintendo has some tricks up their sleeve.
If it were to actually reach 13.5 million (154.82 million LTD), or even if it fell short of that to say 11.5 or 12 million (152.82 or 153.32 million LTD), that would all but guarantee that it passes the PS2 and becomes the best-selling system of all time.

I haven't been this invested in a record chase since I was a little kid watching Barry Bonds chase Hank Aaron's home run record!!



Hardware Comparison Threads:

Current Thread

Is Hardware Getting TOO Powerful?

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

Around the Network
Shtinamin_ on 09 May 2024
PAOerfulone said:

Wow, 13.5 million for FY25?
That's above even my most optimistic projection! I was thinking 10-12 million range. I still think that is what will ultimately happen, but who knows? Maybe Nintendo has some tricks up their sleeve.
If it were to actually reach 13.5 million (154.82 million LTD), or even if it fell short of that to say 11.5 or 12 million (152.82 or 153.32 million LTD), that would all but guarantee that it passes the PS2 and becomes the best-selling system of all time.

I haven't been this invested in a record chase since I was a little kid watching Barry Bonds chase Hank Aaron's home run record!!

Yeah 13.5M is definitely higher than my expectations too.

I was sure 12M would be the bare minimum goal. And I can’t see it not selling at least 12M. 
Knowing Nintendo they have no business making unreachable goals, so if they put down 13.5M, they definitely have some great plans for this FY.

Price cuts (V2 $250, Lite $150, OLED $300)

Bundles (MK8D+Booster Course DLC, SMO, TotK, SMBW)

New Hardware Revision (Switch Attach $100)

Sleeper Franchises/Anticipated (MP4, DK, LoZ Remakes, Mario Party, Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven, etc).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Fight-the-Streets on 10 May 2024
Doctor_MG said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

Of course it's possible for Nintendo to miss the mark but certainly not by more than 1m. Why? 1. Nintendo has no reason to make ambitious forecasts for a console in its 8. year while the successor is already knocking on the door and 2. forecasts are harder to make during the strong years of a console's lifecycle as it's hard to exactly know how high the hype will really be, how long it will carry on and if really enough units can be produced to meet the possible very high demand but in the last 2-3 years of a console's lifecycle (before the successor arrives), naturally, it's way easier to make more exact predictions as there are clearly known facts (i.e. percentages of yearly declines) and less unknown facts (i.e. hype is gone, no production issues).

Nintendo has adjusted their forecast by over 1M multiple times in just the last three years. FY 2022 (dropped by 2.5M) and FY 2023 (dropped by 3M). So it's not like they haven't adjusted forecasts recently. 

But I do think you have a point about how revising forecasts isn't really as necessary, even in the face of slower than expected sales, because it's at the end of its life. The units will sell eventually, the system isn't going to get substantially cheaper to produce at this point, and they will want to focus on manufacturing Switch 2 anyway. 

I'm sorry, I was a bit confusing in my wording. FY22 and FY23 for Switch I would still consider as part of its stronger years, therefore harder to make precise forecasts, therefore the drops of 2.5m and 3m respectively are within range. The Switch is a weirdo as it had six strong fiscal years, FY18 to and incl. FY23 (that includes the launch year, build up momentum, the peak and the decline down to still high numbers). FY24 is the first year I consider belonging to the swansong years and the initial forecast of 15m (later updated to 15.5m) was missed only by 0.7m.

Nintendo's Q&A actually goes into details about how they want to achieve the forecasted 13.5m for FY25:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240508e.pdf - see Q2-A2 and Q5-A5

In A5 Nintendo reiterates that they thought that the 15m forecasted Switches in the previous FY were ambitious, yet they still surpassed this ambitious number by 0.7m! Although, they admit that the 13.5m for FY25 are again ambitious, I have the impression that with the knowledge of the current sales momentum, the sales initiatives they plan and not the least with the planned software releases that this number is very well achievable. What makes me confident too is the fact that Nintendo put it at .5m. I mean, they could just name 13.00m and still anybody would have thought it's quite a high number for its 8. year, but they put it specifically at 13.5m. For me, a clear indication that they are quite confident about it.

Last edited by Fight-the-Streets - on 11 May 2024