Wow, 13.5 million for FY25?
That's above even my most optimistic projection! I was thinking 10-12 million range. I still think that is what will ultimately happen, but who knows? Maybe Nintendo has some tricks up their sleeve.
If it were to actually reach 13.5 million (154.82 million LTD), or even if it fell short of that to say 11.5 or 12 million (152.82 or 153.32 million LTD), that would all but guarantee that it passes the PS2 and becomes the best-selling system of all time.

I haven't been this invested in a record chase since I was a little kid watching Barry Bonds chase Hank Aaron's home run record!!

Yeah 13.5M is definitely higher than my expectations too.

I was sure 12M would be the bare minimum goal. And I can’t see it not selling at least 12M. 
Knowing Nintendo they have no business making unreachable goals, so if they put down 13.5M, they definitely have some great plans for this FY.

Price cuts (V2 $250, Lite $150, OLED $300)

Bundles (MK8D+Booster Course DLC, SMO, TotK, SMBW)

New Hardware Revision (Switch Attach $100)

Sleeper Franchises/Anticipated (MP4, DK, LoZ Remakes, Mario Party, Tomodachi, Rhythm Heaven, etc).

I'm sorry, I was a bit confusing in my wording. FY22 and FY23 for Switch I would still consider as part of its stronger years, therefore harder to make precise forecasts, therefore the drops of 2.5m and 3m respectively are within range. The Switch is a weirdo as it had six strong fiscal years, FY18 to and incl. FY23 (that includes the launch year, build up momentum, the peak and the decline down to still high numbers). FY24 is the first year I consider belonging to the swansong years and the initial forecast of 15m (later updated to 15.5m) was missed only by 0.7m.

Nintendo's Q&A actually goes into details about how they want to achieve the forecasted 13.5m for FY25:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2024/240508e.pdf - see Q2-A2 and Q5-A5

In A5 Nintendo reiterates that they thought that the 15m forecasted Switches in the previous FY were ambitious, yet they still surpassed this ambitious number by 0.7m! Although, they admit that the 13.5m for FY25 are again ambitious, I have the impression that with the knowledge of the current sales momentum, the sales initiatives they plan and not the least with the planned software releases that this number is very well achievable. What makes me confident too is the fact that Nintendo put it at .5m. I mean, they could just name 13.00m and still anybody would have thought it's quite a high number for its 8. year, but they put it specifically at 13.5m. For me, a clear indication that they are quite confident about it.

We've just seen on the Nintendo Direct Nintendo's plans for the rest of the year and some titles for 2025. What do you all think? Is it strong enough to help the Switch reach the 160m golden number? This is the last year of the Switch being Nintendo's primary console, so the last remaining months are crucial for it achieve that amount of sales

Don't know if it is really strong enough to make the balance go to a probable 160M+ milestone for the Switch overall ... But it certainly a graceful end of the active lifecycle we've got here.

The kind of thing the general public buying the system will be glad for because main 1st party support means they value current buyers still.

Lineup is solid, now they need to have a strong plan for promotions/deals during this year

Will Switch hit 160mil? The way I see it is like this: Rumors suggest Nintendo Successor was planned for Fall 2024 release, but was delayed last minute. Yet in spite of this last minute adjustment, the Switch is still planned to have some heavy-hitters this holiday season (as we now see). That being said, I fully anticipate Nintendo will continue to support Switch for a while, and so I have no doubt the Switch could hit 160mil. (If NSW *could* pass without a price cut, it *would* pass with a price cut. If Nintendo wants it — which it seems they do — it is there’s to take.)

Will Switch hit 13mil for F’25? While they do have a strong lineup planned out, the market of available consumers is shrinking as more people buy Switches. It will be hard to appeal to the remaining audience *without a price cut*. It has been confirmed next gen is next year, and backwards compatibility is heavily rumored: If I’m a consumer, why would I purchase a Switch in Fall 2024 if I know that a superior model will be releasing for around the same price in only a few months? Consumers are rational, but that investment is not.

You all that believed in 160 million plus (surpassing PS2) have me on your side now.
Switch is already at 141 million plus, has a new 2D Zelda, new Mario Party, MP4, Mario and Luigi, and will surely get a price cut or at least not drop to nothing when Switch 2 comes out (March 2025 at the earliest).

This video basically sums up my feelings on the matter 

With the release of mario party jamboree and pokemon z a we've got atleast 2 games that could sell over 10 million copies it definitely feels like nintendo has system sellers still lined up