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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

angrypoolman 5 days ago
xl-klaudkil said:
angrypoolman said:

Other console sales have had the benefit of users upgrading to a more reliable form because the failure rate of the first model was so significant. To my knowledge the failure rate of the switch is very low. I cant imagine anybody bought a new switch because their first one was failing. I think that is one of the biggest factors when considering certain consoles and how much they sold

That isnt even remotely true! There are many broken switches..like any other consoles in the world lol not even talking about the horrible controllers and many MANY gamers buying the handheld only version that boosted sales.. thats a verry big factor of why switch sold so much including the others i mentioned...

I think we need some data here. What are the top 5 (major) consoles in terms of failure rate of their original model? I have a sneaking suspicion i know a few of the consoles that would be on there. Also, could you explain to me why people would double dip with a switch lite? The purpose of the switch kite is to have a handheld switch for cheaper. I dont see that being appealing to a large number of people who already own the original switch which indeed already functions as a handheld. 



Total Championships: Nintendo - 4, Sony - 2, Atari - 1, Microsoft - 0, Sega - 0

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Soundwave 5 days ago
xl-klaudkil said:
Soundwave said:

lol, dictionary definition of getting saved by the bell and not winning anything in an organic real way. It'll be hilarious if Nintendo gets to 160m anyway. 

Same with the switch, that much cheaper handheld only version boosted a lot of sales,if only that"other console" had a handheld only model sales would be close to 180mill!

the pandemic also saved the switch, without those sales would be quit lower.

The insane first 2 years ps5 shortages helped the switch also!

Not to mention the insane price increases we have seen, if switch2 would be sold # 350 or 399 sales of the switch would already be close to death.

But yea we all know you look at this as a one way ticket.

The price arguement is lame because it doesn't benefit the Switch 1 at all. The Lite is not the main Switch SKU at all, the more expensive OLED model is more popular, it's selling at a much higher price range than other platforms, so spare me the sob story on pricing, you know damn well "other" consoles wouldn't sniff 150 without benefit of price being slashed down to $99-$129 for years and years, something the Switch has had no benefit of. 



angrypoolman 5 days ago
Soundwave said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Same with the switch, that much cheaper handheld only version boosted a lot of sales,if only that"other console" had a handheld only model sales would be close to 180mill!

the pandemic also saved the switch, without those sales would be quit lower.

The insane first 2 years ps5 shortages helped the switch also!

Not to mention the insane price increases we have seen, if switch2 would be sold # 350 or 399 sales of the switch would already be close to death.

But yea we all know you look at this as a one way ticket.

The price arguement is lame because it doesn't benefit the Switch 1 at all. The Lite is not the main Switch SKU at all, the more expensive OLED model is more popular, it's selling at a much higher price range than other platforms, so spare me the sob story on pricing, you know damn well "other" consoles wouldn't sniff 150 without benefit of price being slashed down to $99-$129 for years and years, something the Switch has had no benefit of. 

this is a great point, and the point i am trying to make is that at $99, it is not inconceivable that (with such a low barrier) a significant portion of those sales are coming from people who want to upgrade their old console with a brand new superior build of it. Can we really say the same about the switch? how many people do we think actually double dipped on the switch as compared to other consoles? yeah the switch had problems with joycon drift, but the obvious solution was to either send them in to nintendo or replace the controller themselves. nobody is purchasing a $300/$350 console because of joycon drift like they would purchase a superior version of their current console at $99. 



Total Championships: Nintendo - 4, Sony - 2, Atari - 1, Microsoft - 0, Sega - 0

Slownenberg 5 days ago
Norion said:

I said before the question now is if it'll end at 158m or 159m and the latter is looking more likely than before though that's still up in the air. More importantly this doesn't change my expectation that 160m has no real chance of happening now unless the rest of the fiscal year is also surprisingly high and there's good reason to suspect the next quarter will be lower. Assuming it's at about 158m by the end of March next year it'll need to still ship another couple million and the 3DS shipped less than 1 million after March 2019 so it'll need to suddenly outperform that by literally over double.

Yeah I agree. This last quarter was surprisingly good, but there were concrete one-off reasons for that. Next quarter is gonna be significantly lower. Then losing Europe next year.

158 will for sure happen sometime next year, I would guess maybe it'll have just barely hit that for next June's quarterly numbers. 159 should happen sometime in second half of 2028. But by that point we're in late 2028, more than 3 years since being replaced, and it'll only be selling a few thousand a week at best, heck they will maybe have already discontinued production by then. By the time it hits 159m every extra 100k will take multiple months to get. At this point I do think it'll hit 159m but I don't see it hitting 159.5m and yeah no real chance of 160m.



Ashadelo 5 days ago
Chicho said:

 

  

 

.67 not .66



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Chicho 5 days ago
Ashadelo said:
Chicho said:

 

  

 

.67 not .66

I think its a rounding thing. Nintendo's own charts contradicts itself. It ends fy2026 at 3.80 but if you add the quarters it should be 3.81 so i fix to be more accurate in itself but it doesn't line up with everything put out there by nintendo.

 

  



Fight-the-Streets 4 days ago
Chicho said:
Ashadelo said:

.67 not .66

I think its a rounding thing. Nintendo's own charts contradicts itself. It ends fy2026 at 3.80 but if you add the quarters it should be 3.81 so i fix to be more accurate in itself but it doesn't line up with everything put out there by nintendo.

 

  

Obviously, Nintendo retroactively adjusted FY26, Q4 from 0.55 to 0.56 million. That means the total of FY26 is at 3.81 million (it was at 3.80).



Chicho 4 days ago

Ok, that makes sense.



Sephiran 3 days ago

With the news that Nintendo is entering Indonesia, i wonder, is Nintendo going to go with a PS2 era strategy from Sony where they are starting to sell Switch 1 in poorer countries all over the world? Going for that classic expand the console market strategy that were abandoned later by Sony to focus on richer countries with the PS3. Could work, because Switch 1 should actually get cheaper the coming years to produce due to age old components its using (barely even relevant for AI).

Ironically, it was exactly that kind of strategy that led the PS2 to sell 160M+ in the first place, by selling it in poorer countries for years.



CourageTCD 3 days ago
Sephiran said:

With the news that Nintendo is entering Indonesia, i wonder, is Nintendo going to go with a PS2 era strategy from Sony where they are starting to sell Switch 1 in poorer countries all over the world? Going for that classic expand the console market strategy that were abandoned later by Sony to focus on richer countries with the PS3. Could work, because Switch 1 should actually get cheaper the coming years to produce due to age old components its using (barely even relevant for AI).

Ironically, it was exactly that kind of strategy that led the PS2 to sell 160M+ in the first place, by selling it in poorer countries for years.

I think it was about time they did this