I'm not going to say there is a 0% chance of the Switch topping 160 million, but it is certainly more likely to miss it at this point. 

I actually think they would hit 160 mill if they just let the Switch 1 sell normally even with no price drop. 

That forecast for Switch 2 pretty much indicates no Switch 2 Lite is coming in the next fiscal year most likely.

How would it really, a Switch 2 Lite likely requires a die shrink, which in this "every production line is super valuable because of the AI boom!" environment would likely mean it would be more expensive, not less and how is Nintendo supposed to sell that. 

That means for anyone, especially with kids who's trying to get into the Switch ecosystem and doesn't want to pay $500, one of the Switch 1 models is your only option for a while. And last time I checked they're not stopping production of 5/6/7 year old kids, those kids need a first game console and the Switch 1 is pretty much the ideal platform for them.

So as long as they keep making the damn thing, it'll sell, it's basically whether or not they can/are willing to do that, not an issue of demand.

I think the only way to decrease the price is a console/TV only Switch 2 model, which they never did with the Switch 1. They would be able to remove the screen, dock, battery, and joy-cons. And have it ship with a Pro controller.

I agree a Switch 2 Lite ain't happening anytime soon, so the $500 price is staying for at least a year or 2. 

With them failing to hit the 4m forecast and giving it a notable price increase in Japan this is truly completely over now. The only positive aspect is a 2m forecast for this fiscal year is towards the upper end of expectations but they could fail to hit it and even 2m wouldn't be enough since Switch shipments after March next year will be very low. At this point the question is if it'll stop at 158m or 159m.

You should update the LTD Total in the Switch's FY09 column. It's still 155.37

With them failing to even hit their 4M target this past year and falling 7M from the year before that, I doubt they will even hit the 2M figure for this forecast. They still have roughly 1.5M in the chain to begin with so imo they will revise the forecast before March 2027 to maybe 1.5M shipments or so.

With production costs as high as they are these days I wouldn't be surprised if they just stop S1 production altogether after March 2027. Maybe another 500k or so after that but that's it. This is a done deal.

As if this task wasn't already hard enough, raising the price of the Switch 1 in Japan really feels like the death nail in the 160 m sold coffin. Just to get to get to 160 shipped seem like it would take like 3 to 4 years. And at that point who in their right mind is gonna be buying it when the Switch 2 will have a full catalog and is BC.

It could hit 160 mill easy, they're just not going to let it, those are two different things.

Well at least Switch1 gets a shout out every time Nintendo points at GameShare.

Nintendo wants people in the NS2 ecosystem, so I'm not surprised they're pulling this sort of stunt. Only people negatively affected by this are the enthusiasts who simply want to say "King Nintendo Switch 1!".