EDIT: I'm pretty confident this will happen now. If Nintendo is willing to launch Pokemon Gen 9 this holiday they are likely counting on a fairly healthy amount of Switch stock going forward.

First, the current state of the chip shortage is almost entirely to blame for this. Regarding Switch showing a recent decline in sales, I have heard so much discussion on saturation vs shortage issues and I believe that, by and large, the latter is the culprit, with the OLED model often difficult to find in stock.

Second, I am talking fiscal here (April 1 to March 31) and sales are going to improve throughout the year as stock increases. Right now, official shipment numbers put the Switch at 18.95m for the first three quarters, with Nintendo predicting 4m for quarter four for a total of 22.95m for fiscal ending March 31, 2022. Nintendo is going to have a big year in 2022 with software that will allow them to remain pretty much flat for Q3 and Q4 (Oct '22 - Mar '23), provided they do have a big holiday game and release a strong selling title sometime during Q4.

Hitting another 10.7m for the holiday quarter this year is certainly possible (especially when PS5 and XSX are undoubtedly going to remain supply constrained), and I don’t think that matching 4m for next Q4 will be too difficult, assuming stock is more plentiful by then. Where I think we will see the numbers grow this year is during Q1 and Q2 (April - September), with Switch Sports, Mario Strikers, Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3 creating much greater demand than last year's lineup for that time frame (sales being 8.28m for the two quarters).  I predict that Switch will show an increase in shipments over the passing year for Nintendo’s financial report in 2023.

Finally, keep in mind that the 3DS, a system with only a fraction of the Switch’s trajectory, accomplished this very feat in its sixth year or so with a 480,000 shipment increase YoY. I think Switch has a good chance to be up YoY by even more than that.

I'm not really up on this, but is there any reason to believe that chip shortages will decrease?

With such pressure on production and several industries vying for the few components around, the shortage will likely last through all of 2022 and well into next year. And that's probably a best-case scenario.

Heck; we ordered a new dishwasher for work and there's a 3-month wait for it due to component shortages.

My understanding was that shortages are going to continue through 2022 but improve as the year goes on.  Obviously PS5 and XSX will remain instant sell-outs all year but AMD did say that things would at least get better during the second half.  Though that doesn't directly affect Nintendo, I'm hoping that it bodes well for Switch's supply issues as well. 

I fully expect shortages for the Switch OLED all year to some effect.  But I'd like to think that, from April to next March, Nintendo could manage to produce the 23m - 24m units needed to achieve this, but I could be wrong.

If they do at all, it will probably be by a few million at most. But I went with probably not. Chip shortages should last through 2022 and possibly 2023 or beyond.

Updated since the last Nintendo Direct and the Pokemon Scarlet & Violet announcements. I'm now even more confident that Switch shipments will increase YoY.

Nintendo really wants to make the Switch a 10-year-cycle console. If they keep having this AAA-game output for 2 more years, they will.

Switch fiscal year 5 and Life time shipments are figures projected by Nintendo at the end of this fiscal year, Currently at 18.95m and 103.54m after Q3 of this Fiscal year.

Even a 20m sixth Fiscal year would be unprecented in videogame hardware sales history. No system has sold 20m in it's 6th fiscal year, even the NDS had a massive decline at this point in it's life and at a fraction of the price of the NSW. Just to illustrate how massive these numbers are i have compiled the yearly and lifetime shipment data for all of Nintendo's consoles apart from NES and GB. 23m or above for the next FY would be more than the lifetime sales of the Gamecube in one year.

Nice graphic. A 23+ mil FY6 would be much needed for it to start catching up to the DS, and it seems like it will.

Forgot to say I voted "possibly". Supply restraints are a bitch.