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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Switch Shipments Will Be Up Next Fiscal Year

 

Will Switch be up YoY for next fiscal (Apr 2022 -March 2023)

Yes, the Switch is unstoppable! 6 19.35%
 
Possibly 11 35.48%
 
Probably not 12 38.71%
 
Not gonna happen 2 6.45%
 
Total:31
The_Liquid_Laser on 01 March 2022

"Possibly". A lot of the factors are potentially there, but there are still plenty of variables.



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TruckOSaurus on 01 March 2022

I voted "Possibly" because of the uncertainty around the chip supply if that were to go magically go away I'd vote "Yes, the Switch is unstoppable" in a heartbeat.



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mk7sx on 01 March 2022

If it wasn't for the supply issues, I would guess >25M shipped with a software lineup like the one they have.

If BOTW is a 2023 release, then my best guess is March, which means it still falls inside of this upcoming FY and all the hype around that keeps Q4 really healthy. If BOTW2 somehow is still a 2022 release, then they've got something else big planned for Jan-Mar 2023, which might be even crazier.



ShadowLink93 on 01 March 2022
farlaff said:
ShadowLink93 said:

Switch fiscal year 5 and Life time shipments are figures projected by Nintendo at the end of this fiscal year, Currently at 18.95m and 103.54m after Q3 of this Fiscal year.

Even a 20m sixth Fiscal year would be unprecented in videogame hardware Sales history. No system has sold 20m in it's 6th fiscal year, even the NDS had a massive decline at this point in it's life and at a fraction of the price of the NSW. Just to illustrate how massive these numbers are i have compiled the yearly and lifetime shipment data for all of Nintendo's consoles apart from NES and GB. 23m or above for the next FY would be more than the lifetime sales of the Gamecube in one year.

Nice graphic. A 23+ mil FY6 would be much needed for it to start catching up to the DS, and it seems like it will.

Yes, not even the Switch could match the DS in it's peak years but from here on out the DS saw massive declines and only sold 25 million more units from it's sixth year onwards until it was discontinued. The Switch can catch it and will have a much stronger tail and could sell another 50 million.



archbrix on 02 March 2022
ShadowLink93 said:

Switch fiscal year 5 and Life time shipments are figures projected by Nintendo at the end of this fiscal year, Currently at 18.95m and 103.54m after Q3 of this Fiscal year.

Even a 20m sixth Fiscal year would be unprecented in videogame hardware sales history. No system has sold 20m in it's 6th fiscal year, even the NDS had a massive decline at this point in it's life and at a fraction of the price of the NSW. Just to illustrate how massive these numbers are i have compiled the yearly and lifetime shipment data for all of Nintendo's consoles apart from NES and GB. 23m or above for the next FY would be more than the lifetime sales of the Gamecube in one year.

Wow, that chart really puts things into perspective.  FY6 is going to be over 20m for sure and FY7 will likely be in the high double digits (my guess is >17m). In fact, I would bet that FY8 will still be in the low double digits (>10m). Switch is a powerhouse in sales and indeed in a league of its own.

It will be interesting to see this chart updated as the years go by.