Why would you bet your butt on something that is obviously false?  You need to realize the main decision maker behind DQ12 is Yuji Horii and not a Square Enix executive.  Yugi Horii is not going to throw a lot of money away on Playstation, when Switch is obviously the only viable platform in Japan.  He's always put DQ on the most popular platform in Japan.  Also, Sony has no interest in moneyhatting DQ.  They will moneyhat Final Fantasy over and over, but they have no interest in throwing extra money at DQ.  On the other hand Nintendo has been trying to make DQ successful outside of Japan since the very first game.  If any platform gets exclusivity or timed exclusivity it will be Switch, but there is also a decent chance the game will be day 1 multiplat.

Agree about MK9, simply because if they actually do release another MK for the Switch I think that'd be a pretty clear signal that a successor system isn't coming out until 2025 at the earliest. They're not gonna release a game in their ultimate evergreen series with only a year or two left in the system's life. If they plan on keeping the Switch going until Spring or Holiday 2025 it would make sense to just put out MK9 on Switch soon (ideally this year) instead of waiting for the successor's launch in 3+ years. And if Switch stays Nintendo's primary system until 2025 I think it has a very good chance to pass PS2.

Yup exactly. The Switch, about to hit 5 years in, and literally is still at launch prices. That is crazy. And it is still having huge hardware sales in Japan. If they want to keep the Switch going into 2025 or even 2026 they have tons of room to implement price cuts in the coming years, hell they could even make a Lite OLED in 2023 if they wanted and sell it for $200, they can also release a bunch new colors for those people who like to blow money buying a new version of the same system they already have haha. They also can release a second 3D Mario, a first 2D Mario, Pokemon gen 9, along with a second Pokemon Legends or Pokemon Let's Go, MK9, another Ring Fit, another Mario Party, and a plethora of other series Nintendo fans want, not to mention DQ12 would no doubt be out by then and it would be a huge hit in Japan on the Switch.

Japan sales will probably be close to 5 million this year, so it's not like it's close to saturated, it's just past its peak is all.

I disagree.

They can easily double dip consumers with MK9 on Switch and Switch 2. MK8 double dipped and it was 3 years apart. Breath of the Wild double dipped of course with the same day launch. So whether it be within a year or 2 of launch, I think they would release it for both systems.

This is de ja vu. I feel like I’ve seen people said this since 2017. First, it was Zelda, then it was Smash then Pokémon then Animal Crossing.

X game already has an audience on switch lmao. But the truth is new people are born every day. People upgrade to new hardware with a new game. The Oled just came out. 

Splatoon 3 is going to be so huge y’all have no idea.

Timed wouldn't make any sense, but full exclusive to Switch will. It's much cheaper to develop a game for the Switch than for the PS5 if it's a big franchise. They can even port it to pc, like they did with Monster Hunter Rise. This sounds like a more profitable approach. It's not only about revenue generated by a game, but also about the cost of a game. At this moment the costs of making a full fledged PS5 Xbox/PC version aside the Switch version might be to expensive. On PC the game will sell well regardless and Switch will do amazing as well.

PS5 will probably go on to sell a million units a year or less. Whilst Switch still has some 3 to 4 million years in Japan to look forward too. They can always make an OLED lite for Japan.

I mean it is possible. I just looked up DQ11 sales numbers and I didn't realize that Japan alone accounts for nearly 2/3rd of its sales. I figured sales in the west were a good bit higher than they are. I was gonna say DQ12 would get plenty of sales in the west from playstation but apparently that's now really the case. DQ11 has sold over 2 million copies in the west but that's across multiple systems. So a Switch exclusive certainly isn't out of the question as obviously Switch would account for the vast majority of sales for DQ12. But I bet a PS5 version would sell enough globally to warrant a port on those systems. Even if a PS5 version would only account for a million sales globally I'm guessing that warrant a port. I assume the game will be made on the Switch and ported to the ps5 with maybe some graphical upgrades, though I think they would release at the same time.

Just disclaimer, it's not more cheaper to develop to Switch. Cost development depends heavily on workforce, and games with expansive open worlds and high graphical fidelity will indeed be more costly, but you can make smaller budget games for PS5 just like most JP devs used to do on PS4. If anything, games are more costly to develop for Switch, as you need to spend more time (i.e. money) to optimize them to run in a less capable hardware, while on PS5 you can build almost anything and knows it will run fine and with 60 FPS 

That's said I totally think D12 will NOT be one of those games. From what I've saw they want DQ to finally breakthrough in West (look at the first promotional teaser, they are going for a bit more dark cinematography this time):

They also said this game is to define the next 10 years in future of the franchise so they are maybe not that concerned with financial returns, but to invest to fully expand the brand. It will be developed using Unreal Engine 5, I'm expecting something like Kingdom Hearts 3 level of graphical quality, but targeting PS5/Series specs. Enix probably saw DQ11 opened the doors and the next step if to invest on it massively like Capcom did with Monster Hunter, is so Multiplat (PS4/5, Xbox and Switch 2) is the best route for DQ. As this game is not likely to be released before 2024 maybe it can even be a launch title for Switch 2

If a game is developed from the ground up for the Switch it doesn't take more time to optimize.

It does. Every piece of software takes some time to be optimized, mainly due to poor programming practices/strategies. However if you are running a not very demanding software in a platform where resources like memory and CPU are abundant you might very well skip most of performances tests because your software will run as expected. If resources are more limited the software is more likely to suffer few (or many) performance dips