More likely he is taking something we aren't.

16.5m, would do more without supply issues.

I'm going to guess 15.5M. I think that Xbox will continue bringing stiffer competition than the Xbox One did in 2015. Lastly, I think there will still be supply chain problems, which means the more Xbox consoles MS makes the less PS consoles Sony will be able to make. Therefore, I'm going to put my guess at about 15.5M sell through for PS, with the Xbox Series selling 9.5M sell through.

15ish million, due to supply constraints. It could be less. Unlikely to be much more, as we know the supply chain issues are unlikely to substantially improve for at least the first half of the year, probably longer.

Horizon FW

15 million units, if all goes well. I don't see them producing more as long as shortages continue. These shortages will probably continue to late 2023.

Between 15M and 17M, around 16M. I’d say because of the shortages and XBox competition there’s a slightly bigger chance it’ll fall at the lower end of that window so I’ll vote for the 14-15.9M option.

Bonus: Nothing really, I don’t see myself getting a next-gen system anytime soon. If ever, which would be the first time since, ever, that I only had the Nintendo system in a gen (Switch in this case).

I'm afraid 14-16 mil is the best they can muster because the supply problems don't seem to be letting up any time soon.
Bonus: GoW Ragnarok is da bomb for me, but there's so much more stuff to enjoy before that comes out.
It's just stupidly hard to get my hands on the machine. The retailers over here get small consignments sporadically, and they are gone from the online stores in 5-10 minutes.

18 million, fuck shortage.

17-18 million. I am expecting a much better stock situation past spring time. In fact it’s already started a little in Japan I think.

I think it'll be around 14-15.9 million for the PS5 this year considering the semiconductor shortages still going on.