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Forums - Movies & TV - Tracking Spider-Man: No Way Home's domestic box office (#2 all-time opening weekend!)

 

What will No Way Home gross lifetime domestically?

Less than $500M 1 3.13%
 
$500-549M 2 6.25%
 
$550-599M 2 6.25%
 
$600-649M 4 12.50%
 
$650-699M 5 15.63%
 
$700-749M 3 9.38%
 
$750-799M 3 9.38%
 
$800M or greater 12 37.50%
 
Total:32
SKMBlake said:
Shadow1980 said:

. Of the three MCU films released this year, Shang-Chi was the only one to even crossed the $200M mark, and until this past weekend was the only one of two films overall the pass that milestone, the other being Venom 2 

Venom is not part of the MCU/Venom 2 is not an MCU film

i don't know man...

Spoiler!
after watching No way home i dare say venom is indeed MCU, as much as Tobey maguire and Andrew garfield Spider movies.


GoTY 2022:

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Sorry for the lack of updates. Was sidetracked because of the holidays and everything. Once final numbers for this past weekend come out, I'll update the OP.

SKMBlake said:

Shadow1980 said:

. Of the three MCU films released this year, Shang-Chi was the only one to even crossed the $200M mark, and until this past weekend was the only one of two films overall the pass that milestone, the other being Venom 2 

Venom is not part of the MCU/Venom 2 is not an MCU film

I know. It wasn't my intent to phrase it like that. I should probably rewrite it so it isn't a not-really-a-runon-sentence-but-kinda-is-for-context sort of thing.

Though also see again the above spoilers.



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Shadow1980 said:

Though also see again the above spoilers.

Naaaaah I hadn't the chance to see it yet.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
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The Fans Have Spoken! Spider-Man: No Way Home drops a massive 68% in its second weekend!

I kid. I kid. I do hope the reference is understood, and it would've been more timely if I wrote that earlier this week, but I was preoccupied earlier in the week and was feeling like shit Wednesday and yesterday (booster side effects), hence the lack of updates.

So, NWH did indeed have a pretty steep 67.5% drop in its second weekend. Much of that was from Friday, which is understandable as Christmas Eve is typically a pretty rough day for theaters. Christmas Day and Boxing Day, though... well, they just weren't as pronounced relative to what things were in the days prior to Christmas Eve. There's no way to be sure why, but other December releases didn't see Christmas Day and the day after be this low in relative terms. It was still a very good showing in absolute terms as it was the third-largest Christmas Day gross ever (behind only The Force Awakens and Rise of Skywalker), but it possibly, but not certainly, could have been better. Maybe there was just something about this particular Christmas weekend, and COVID might not necessarily be the answer because of what happened after this past weekend.

While a big deal is made about weekend grosses, focusing solely on them misses the bigger picture, as there's four other days in the week besides the Fri.-Sun. period, and NWH made up for its relatively steep weekend drop with a very strong showing during the weekdays. While box office figures for this past week are still just estimates at this point (Mon.-Thu. officially labelled as such, last weekend still showing rounded figures), estimated indicated that during the Mon.-Thu. period alone it grossed over $86M, the second-largest second Mon.-Thu. gross ever (behind only TFA, and over double what even Endgame did its second Mon.-Thu. period), which brought the film to over $170M total in its second week. If the final figures aren't much less than that, it would potentially make it the third-largest second week ever in inflation-adjusted terms (assuming ticket prices haven't grown substantially since 2019; see below). It also passed the $500M mark on Tuesday, making it the third-fastest movie to reach that point at only 12 days, surpassed only by The Force Awakens (10 days) and Endgame (8 days).

Because of the strong performance during the week, it's possible that COVID might not be factoring into audience's decisions to go see this film, since if it was it we would likely have seen a drop during the week harsher than ~31% drop that was estimated for the Mon.-Thu. period, which was a much softer second weekday period drop than any December release except The Force Awakens (the leggiest major blockbuster of the century). These are really good legs so far despite the spike from omicron. Then again, COVID could have been a factor and the movie might be having an even slower decline under disease-free circumstances.

While the Mon.-Thu. figures of Week 2 doing that well relative to the second weekend is unusual for a Marvel film, it is not too dissimilar from what recent Star Wars films did. Since those were all released in roughly the same time frame (Christmas was between their 6th to 11th day in theaters; it was on NWH's 9th day), this shows that this is a result of Christmas and the last days of December boosting mid-December releases higher than what they would have done during in their second week had they released in some other month. If NWH was, say, a summer release and still debuted as strongly as it did, it may have had a better second weekend, but the weekdays of Week 2 would likely have been weaker.

Of course, next week comes the big post New Year's drop. While this weekend should still be a good one, we should expect much larger week-over-week drops come Monday. Depending on how much it drops, it should still have enough momentum to keep it ahead of other MCU films of similar performance.

In the charts in the OP, I have added Black Panther as an additional point of comparison for the daily grosses.

Also, I will add a chart soon after I post this reply that will show NWH's weekly grosses compared to other major blockbusters of the past 20 years. That chart will be inflation-adjusted given that some of the films in the chart are old enough for ticket price inflation to make a significant difference, but that comes with a caveat. NATO hasn't updated their site to show average ticket prices for 2020 or 2021, with the 2019 average of $9.16 being the most recent figure. Meanwhile, the MPA does publish annual figures on both total grosses for all films and total admissions. However, those figures are extremely rounded, with annual grosses rounded to the nearest $100M and admissions rounded to the nearest 10M, which results in a substantial margin of error. Box Office Mojo states an average ticket price in 2020 of $9.37. This was the final quarterly average ticket price, specifically for Q4 2019, given by NATO before they stopped giving updates. Based on their figure for the total box office gross for the calendar year of 2020, this would yield total admissions of about 224.4M, a significant (~9.4%) discrepancy from the 240M figure given by the MPA. Using the MPA's 240M estimate as the middle point of a range from 235.5M to 244.9M would yield an average ticket price ranging from $8.61 to $8.93, which if true would indicate a decline in average ticket prices in 2020. However, with theaters closed for most of that year and with NATO not giving any updates, we can't be sure what the actual figure is.

Due to conflicting data and there being no "official" figure for average ticket prices past 2019 from either of the big movie trade associations, I'm going to assume ticket prices have remained totally flat since 2019, and therefore will not adjust what I have for the older films on the chart. If and when we get some more official ticket prices I will adjust accordingly. I may make an alternate chart showing grosses adjusted to BOM's $9.37 figure as the most recent ticket price.

I will update the charts with the final non-estimate figures for Spider-Man once they become available, which may be a while (I'm thinking not until after the weekend once we're past the holidays).

Also, Happy New Year!

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 15 January 2022

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Box Office Mojo finally updated their site with all the final actual figures for No Way Home through to this past weekend. Most of the data points on the charts I put up the other day weren't too far off, not enough to make a visible difference.

For this past weekend, NWH dropped 33.7% from the previous weekend, resulting in a 3-day haul of just barely over $56M. This brings the films LTD domestic gross to $613M. With the $600M mark being passed on Sunday, it became the third-fastest film to pass that milestone, doing so in only 17 days.

While NWH had a softer drop this past weekend than Infinity War or Black Panther did in their third weekends, it was still a weaker third weekend in absolute terms. Overall, it was only the sixth-largest third weekend for a film ever, unadjusted, though it would be down at 8th place adjusted, possibly 9th. Nevertheless, it remains ahead in LTD terms compared to everything except Endgame and The Force Awakens, though its lead over Infinity War and Black Panther has diminished slightly.

However, as we move into the post-New Year's slump, we should expect significant drops. Based on what happened with other mid-December blockbusters, we should probably expect at minimum a 70% drop for the weekday period this week, possibly closer to 75%. This would give us a Mon.-Thu. gross of around $22-26M, putting Week 3's total gross at around $78-82M, which would in turn put the film's LTD gross after three weeks at somewhere in the $635-639M range.

While December is typically a strong month for theaters, there are actually not very many mega-blockbuster titles that were December titles, though they have become more commonplace this century. The only December titles released since 2000 that have adjusted lifetime grosses over $500M are The Lord of the Rings films, Avatar, and the Disney-era Star Wars films sans Solo (for reference, the only December releases from 1975-1999 to gross over $500M adjusted were Titanic, Beverly Hills Cop, Tootsie, and Superman). Of those, the Star Wars films had the most typical big blockbuster box office trajectory, with very strong opening weekends and being relatively front-loaded, with pronounced drops week after week, while the others were more slow-burning films that were not very front-loaded.

So, using the Star Wars films as our references, we can make a likely range of projections about where No Way Home could end up lifetime. They made anywhere from 10% to 18% of their lifetime grosses after their third weeks (TFA was the one with the 18% figure, so NWH will likely be towards the lower end), so if No Way Home manages somewhere in this range and is sitting at $635M by this coming Thursday, it should still pass the $700M mark lifetime. Even if we want to use absolute grosses as a reference, if Spidey does at least well post-Week 3 as The Last Jedi or Rogue One, it should still pass $700M. That is unless it drops faster than expected in the coming weeks. For example, we don't know what effects, if any, the omicron spike will have (e.g., possible theater closures in certain areas).

In any case, at this point there is a very high likelihood that No Way Home will pass the $700M mark, and if it does pass that milestone it would be one of fewer than 20 titles in the "Blockbuster era" of film to do so. Regardless of where it ends up, it will soon pass Spider-Man 2002 as the highest-grossing Spider-Man film ever in adjusted terms.

The charts in the OP should be updated by time you read this.



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Just looked at the total sales (Well, based only on wiki lol) and it's at $1.380m so far... it's now passed Black Panther to become the highest non-Avengers MCU film and could very easily outdo the first two Avengers films (Not including inflation) daaaaaamn. Definitely deserves it though, loved it!



Bristow9091 said:

Just looked at the total sales (Well, based only on wiki lol) and it's at $1.380m so far... it's now passed Black Panther to become the highest non-Avengers MCU film and could very easily outdo the first two Avengers films (Not including inflation) daaaaaamn. Definitely deserves it though, loved it!

Crazy thing is that it will pass the 1.5 Billions mark without releasing in China and with high number of Covid cases. 



The Mon.-Thu. period of this past week saw No Way Home gross a total of $22.41M. This is a 74.6% drop from the same period last week, which is within the projections I made in the previous post. That brings the film's Week 3 gross to a total of $78.16M, healthy but otherwise unremarkable, being on par with other blockbusters. So far, despite the strong start, No Way Home is declining faster than other big MCU films, but about what one would expect for a December blockbuster. This sharp drop over this past weekday period, which I totally predicted with reasonably close accuracy, is yet another clear demonstration of the post-New Year's slump. On a personal note, I was flat-out insulted when I pointed out the slump's existence a couple of years back, but, well, there it is. I guess it's not controversial to point that fact out when talking about movies that aren't actively hated by a vocal minority of fans.

Anywho, if I had to make a prediction for the current 3-day weekend, it would be somewhere in the $24-26M range.

Charts in the OP are already updated.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Latest figures have NWH at over $698M domestically after this weekend It’s on the verge of passing $700M and Black Panther some time this week.



I wasn't able to get this done yesterday, but I decided to add some new charts to the OP. One will be a separate daily chart from the first comparison chart, this one showing grosses for Week 4 onward. There is also a lead/deficit chart added as well.

I will continue to do weekly updates out to Week 8, after which point I will do one final update once the movie is gone from theaters.

As for this past week, Spider-Man had a Week 4 gross of nearly $42.2M, still strong but again unremarkable. It had a softer drop than I was expecting for the weekend, with the decline being noticeably smaller than the norm for the fourth weekend of a mid-December release. However, it still had a fairly normal drop for the weekday period. Here's what the week-over-week drops looked like for each day of Week 4, compared to the other four of the Top 5 December films of the past decade (i.e., the Star Wars films).

No Way Home had a softer weekday period drop than TLJ and Rogue one did in their fourth week, but about on par with TFA and TRoS, so based on the admittedly small sample size of December mega-blockbusters that had more normal blockbuster trajectories (meaning excluding Titanic and Avatar), Spidey was within the norm.

Overall, after four weeks in theaters, No Way Home had reached a total gross of $677.9M, the third-largest total in inflation-adjusted terms of any film ever.

Looking at what most past blockbusters did, No Way Home must have grossed 85-95% of its lifetime total within the first four weeks. Looking at where it's at in both absolute terms and rate of decline relative to other big films, it's probably closer to 95%. For example, it's declining at a faster rate than Black Panther did, and is now starting to gross less on a weekly basis, it's lead over Black Panther starting to erode as shown in the lead/deficit chart in the OP. However, it's still outpacing Infinity War. So, its post-Week 4 gross will likely fall between those two films. If this continues to hold true, it could still get to $750M, but $800M is probably out of the picture at this point.

As PAOerfulone said, this weekend's estimates indicate that No Way Home is at around $698M lifetime. It will likely pass the $700M mark today or Tuesday depending on what the actual official gross for the weekend is, so before the week is out it will pass Black Panther to become the new #2 MCU film to date, and becoming the new #4 movie of the 21st century overall (adjusted gross) is already on lock.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").