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Forums - Movies & TV - Tracking Spider-Man: No Way Home's domestic box office (#2 all-time opening weekend!)


What will No Way Home gross lifetime domestically?

Less than $500M 1 3.13%
$500-549M 2 6.25%
$550-599M 2 6.25%
$600-649M 4 12.50%
$650-699M 5 15.63%
$700-749M 3 9.38%
$750-799M 3 9.38%
$800M or greater 12 37.50%

Spider-Man: No Way Home has opened to rave reviews and an outstanding opening weekend (I saw it earlier today, and it was great). With over $260M dollars grossed including Thursday previews, it not only achieved the second-largest opening weekend of all time domestically, it is also already the highest-grossing movie of the past two calendar years. Assuming a roughly 2.5x multiplier, it should gross around $650M domestically, making it the first movie since The Rise of Skywalker to not only pass the $300M mark (a milestone passed by nine films released in 2019), but the $500M mark as well.

No Way Home's performance at the box office was a very important indicator of the long-term health of movie theaters as entertainment venues. Even after cinemas reopened after months of COVID-related closures in 2020, many big movies had already pushed back, and when finally released they all had rather disappointing returns at the box office. Of the three MCU films released this year prior to Spider-Man, Shang-Chi was the only one to even cross the $200M mark. Also, until this past weekend Shang-Chi was the only one of two films in general (MCU or otherwise) to pass that milestone, the other being Venom 2 (Black Widow may have passed that milestone as well had it not released on Disney+, but we'll never know for sure). That put the first three films of Phase Four squarely towards the bottom of the pack for best showings in the series, and were the worst-performing MCU films since 2015's Ant-Man. Considering how many films have under-performed this year, it appeared that audiences were apprehensive about returning to cinemas in full force.

No Way Home's massive opening weekend showing has shown that audiences may be more inclined to start showing up to theaters at pre-COVID levels again. While it remains to be seen if that will hold in the face of new variants of the disease, it does show that theaters could potentially make a full recovery. While it's debatable if that's a good thing in the face of a pandemic with seemingly no end (and let's keep the arguments about that in the COVID thread, please), at the very least it would be a good for cinemas and the long-term viability of the big-screen experience. 2022's slate of MCU films as well as other big tentpole releases like Jurassic World 3 and Avatar 2 will determine if Spider-Man's outstanding performance was a fluke or not.

So far, No Way Home's performance is most comparable to that of Avengers: Infinity War, the film that held the previous #2 spot for largest opening weekend. The only other big film with a similar opening weekend was The Force Awakens, which now sits at #4 (adjusted for ticket price inflation, TFA now sits at the #3 spot while Infinity War sits at #4). TFA was the leggiest mega-blockbusters of the past decade, so we shouldn't expect No Way Home to have as huge of a multiplier as that film, but I will include some other films with similar debuts and with lifetime adjusted grosses in the roughly $600-700M range in the charts I have forthcoming, including Spider-Man 2002, currently the most successful Spidey film (it might take me a few hours to gather data, plus I need to start getting ready to make dinner). I would put Homecoming and Far From Home in the comparisons, but unless NWH has atrocious legs it will blow its predecessors out of the water.

Here are some comparison charts. The first is daily and LTD cumulative daily grosses for NWH vs. Infinity War and Black Panther, the two MCU films most directly comparable to it in performance at the moment. This chart will only cover the first three weeks. The second chart will compare NWH's weekly grosses to the inflation-adjusted weekly grosses of other major 21st century blockbusters (see the next to last paragraph on my reply on Jan. 1 for more information regarding likely margins of error).

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 19 March 2022


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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Honestly betting kinda lower than expected based on the opening with covid rates rising, increased competition from the Matrix and other movies, and the fact that most people who wanted to see it made sure to do it first weekend. Still gonna be an insane run, somewhere in the 500m range Im betting

Spidey’s finally back! Hasn’t seen this success since the original trilogy. Can’t wait to see it!

I will say its domestic box office will be above $800 million.

Proud to be a Californian.

I'll have to look up the numbers for the other movies with big domestic openings, but here is my intuition before I apply the appropriate ratio.

I do not think it will have legs like The Force Awakens and Black Panther.  These movies had a special appeal beyond the core fanbase of hardcore Star Wars and Marvel fans.  Also they seemed especially geared toward repeat viewings.

I think it will have better legs than (proportionally) than Endgame and probably Infinity War too.  I remember Endgame in particular had a mindblowingly incredible opening, even to the point where I saw it on a Monday and the theatre was still jam packed.  (I saw it a few days earlier too.)  However, it's legs were pretty terrible and at least the worldwide total just barely inched above Avatar in spite of it having a much bigger opening.  (I think domestically it had poor legs too.)  The main reason it's legs were so bad is that people really did not want to be spoiled.  They felt they had to see it ASAP, because spoilers would be everywhere as soon as it came out.

Well, I think Spider-Man:No Way Home will (proportionally) have legs somewhere between Endgame and Black Panther or A Force Awakens.  It is another movie where people really do not want to be spoiled.  However, I think it will also be the main movie to watch in December and probably January too.  Outside of the Summer, December seems to be the best time to launch a movie, and usually one or two exceptional movies have really good legs because of the season.  (This could be a Star Wars movie, but it could also be a movie like Jumanji or The Greatest Showman.)  No Way Home kind of has the leg shortening factor of Endgame and the leg lengthening factor of A Force Awakens.  I would have to see what the ratios are of total/opening weekend and then probably split the difference for No Way Home.

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It'll easily be the highest grossing Spider-Man movie, that's for sure. Which will put it past the first Raimi movie which is at 403.7 million in 2002. And if you adjusted that for inflation, it becomes 623.72 million.

Can No Way Home reach that mark? It certainly has a shot and I absolutely hope it does because I said before and I'll say it again, this is my new favorite Spider-Man movie. I absolutely loved No Way Home so much!!

At this rate, I think Endgame will be the only movie that finishes ahead of No Way Home at the box office.

Average movie at best, the movie lacks the wow factor and have less action than previous releases. Bringing back actors from previous releases is hyped for no reason.

It will be increadibly frontloaded, the movie theaters are closing left and right already and it will significantly cut it's legs short. I feel like it should end up around 500-550 max. Could see it reach 600. Honestly i feel like it will reach a billion globally but it also doesn't seem like it will release in China either. So 1-1.1 billion globally and 550-600 millions domestic is my call

I`m very happy with this opening since I do have Spider, Wolverine and Batman as my favorite American Comics heroes. Hope the legs are strong and it keep demolishing records.

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."