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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

zorg1000 on 22 December 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
zorg1000 said:

I could have sworn somebody tried telling you that a couple months ago……..who was that?

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9328104

Well, that was before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward.  That gave us all an idea of just how severe the chip shortage would be.  From what I can tell you were running that forecast without taking the chip shortage into account (which means you were predicting too low).  Or did you have a method of taking the shortage into account before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward?

Read the post again, I mentioned shortages



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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The_Liquid_Laser on 22 December 2021
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, that was before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward.  That gave us all an idea of just how severe the chip shortage would be.  From what I can tell you were running that forecast without taking the chip shortage into account (which means you were predicting too low).  Or did you have a method of taking the shortage into account before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward?

Read the post again, I mentioned shortages

This is what you said:
"This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues."

So, you were correct that OLED does have supply issues.  However, you were incorrect in saying it is the main hardware driver.  All of the other models are in short supply too.  People across the world are buying every single model regardless of whether it is OLED or not.  That means that OLED is not the main hardware driver.  OLED is one factor, but holiday software + backed up demand are also driving the Switch sales to completely sell out.  Lots of people will still buy a base Switch or Switch Lite to play BDSP or all of those Switch evergreens.

Now let's look at what I said about the shortages:
"Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo)."

I was saying that shortages are the only thing that could make Switch be down YoY (which we now know to be the case).  Also, I was saying if Switch is down YoY, then everyone will have severe shortages.  This is also the case.

Whose reasoning more accurately reflects the current reality?

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 22 December 2021

curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Zippy6 on 22 December 2021

"PS5 stock surge boosts Spider-Man and Ratchet & Clank"

Some good news for ps5 stock for week ending 18th, at least in the UK sales should be up a lot next week.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-12-19-fifa-22-takes-christmas-no-1-as-among-us-beats-gta-trilogy-uk-boxed-charts



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

zorg1000 on 22 December 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
zorg1000 said:

Read the post again, I mentioned shortages

This is what you said:
"This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues."

So, you were correct that OLED does have supply issues.  However, you were incorrect in saying it is the main hardware driver.  All of the other models are in short supply too.  People across the world are buying every single model regardless of whether it is OLED or not.  That means that OLED is not the main hardware driver.  OLED is one factor, but holiday software + backed up demand are also driving the Switch sales to completely sell out.  Lots of people will still buy a base Switch or Switch Lite to play BDSP or all of those Switch evergreens.

Now let's look at what I said about the shortages:
"Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo)."

I was saying that shortages are the only thing that could make Switch be down YoY (which we now know to be the case).  Also, I was saying if Switch is down YoY, then everyone will have severe shortages.  This is also the case.

Whose reasoning more accurately reflects the current reality?

Mine, because I said sales would be 25-26m while you thought they would be up. You’re just trying to come up with technicalities for why it’s not your fault for being wrong.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

AJNShelton on 22 December 2021
zorg1000 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

This is what you said:
"This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues."

So, you were correct that OLED does have supply issues.  However, you were incorrect in saying it is the main hardware driver.  All of the other models are in short supply too.  People across the world are buying every single model regardless of whether it is OLED or not.  That means that OLED is not the main hardware driver.  OLED is one factor, but holiday software + backed up demand are also driving the Switch sales to completely sell out.  Lots of people will still buy a base Switch or Switch Lite to play BDSP or all of those Switch evergreens.

Now let's look at what I said about the shortages:
"Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo)."

I was saying that shortages are the only thing that could make Switch be down YoY (which we now know to be the case).  Also, I was saying if Switch is down YoY, then everyone will have severe shortages.  This is also the case.

Whose reasoning more accurately reflects the current reality?

Mine, because I said sales would be 25-26m while you thought they would be up. You’re just trying to come up with technicalities for why it’s not your fault for being wrong.

He said it would be up, unless a shortage hits the stocks, which is the case



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zorg1000 on 22 December 2021
SKMBlake said:
zorg1000 said:

Mine, because I said sales would be 25-26m while you thought they would be up. You’re just trying to come up with technicalities for why it’s not your fault for being wrong.

He said it would be up, unless a shortage hits the stocks, which is the case

No, look at the way it’s framed.

He’s not saying demand is high enough to be up YoY but due to the ongoing chip shortage there’s a high chance it won’t be met.

He’s questioning how I think it could be down ~10% YoY and that it would require a shortage beyond what he believes is possible for that to happen.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kenjab on 22 December 2021
trunkswd said:

Share the article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Launch Sales Comparison Through Week 57

This weekly mini-series compares the aligned launch sales of the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch.

It should be noted the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S had a worldwide launch, while the PlayStation 5 launch was split over the course of two weeks. Also, the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017, while the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched during the holidays in November 2020.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Global:

  1. PS5: 16,103,410
  2. Switch: 15,848,071
  3. XSX|S: 10,630,502

Through the first 57 weeks available worldwide the PlayStation 5 is ahead of the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 0.26 million units units and is 5.47 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 5.22 million units.

The PS5 has sold 16.10 million in 57 weeks worldwide, while the Switch sold 15.85 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 10.63 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 57 weeks, the PS5 is in the lead. The PS5 has a 37.8 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 37.2 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 25.0 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch US:

  1. Switch: 5,699,765
  2. PS5: 5,615,755
  3. XSX|S: 5,001,630

Through the first 56 weeks available in the US the Nintendo Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 0.08 million units and is 0.70 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 0.61 million units.

The Switch has sold 5.70 million in 57 weeks in the US, while the PS5 sold 5.62 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 5.00 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 57 weeks, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 34.9 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 34.4 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 30.7 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Europe (56 weeks):

  1. PS5: 6,381,072
  2. Switch: 4,033,968
  3. XSX|S: 3,241,145

The PlayStation 5 has been available for one week less than the Xbox Series X|S in Europe. After 56 weeks the PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 2.35 million units and is 3.14 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 0.79 million units.

The PS5 has sold 6.38 million in 56 weeks in Europe, while the Switch sold 4.03 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 3.24 million units. 

Looking at the marketshare through 56 weeks, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 46.7 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 29.6 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 23.7 percent.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Japan:

  1. Switch: 4,017,226
  2. PS5: 1,193,634
  3. XSX|S: 126,150

Through the first 57 weeks available in Japan the Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S by a wide margin. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 2.82 million units and is 3.89 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 1.07 million units.

The Switch has sold 4.02 million units in 57 weeks in Japan, while the PS5 has sold 1.19 million units, and the Xbox Series X|S 0.13 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 57 weeks, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 75.3 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 22.4 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 2.3 percent.

I'm glad that you separate this comparison by region, as I feel the fight between these 3 in the US will be an intriguing battle over the next few years.  Currently all three are separated by less than 700k.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

Kristof81 on 22 December 2021



Chicho on 22 December 2021
kenjab said:

I'm glad that you separate this comparison by region, as I feel the fight between these 3 in the US will be an intriguing battle over the next few years.  Currently all three are separated by less than 700k.

Yeah is the closest market where all 3 are at a similar level.



Wyrdness on 22 December 2021

With in a week or so we will have a total of 6 platforms to hit 100m not bad for an industry that was was near dead 40 years ago and deemed a fad.