The_Liquid_Laser said:
How do you expect it to be down 10% for the full year when it is only down 7.5% right now? Switch had nothing special going for it from Oct - Dec in 2020. This year has OLED and Pokemon. All indicators say, even if Switch is down in 2021, it will be less than a 7.5% drop. In fact, it is more likely to be up YoY in 2021. Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be? That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo). |
The fact that 2020 was able to sell close to 12 million in 12 weeks without any major releases shows how insane the year was and shouldn't be used as a baseline.
Down 10% YoY would mean another ~10 million this year or slightly higher than 2019 in the same time frame which had Ring Fit, Luigi's Mansion, Pokemon & Lite a few weeks earlier.
This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues.
I might be a bit conservative with my prediction so I'll adjust slightly and say down 5-10% YoY.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
