Switch Nears 100M, PS5 Tops 16M - Global Hardware Dec 4 to 11

[The_Liquid_Laser]

zorg1000 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, that was before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward.  That gave us all an idea of just how severe the chip shortage would be.  From what I can tell you were running that forecast without taking the chip shortage into account (which means you were predicting too low).  Or did you have a method of taking the shortage into account before Nintendo adjusted their forecast downward?

Read the post again, I mentioned shortages

This is what you said:
"This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues."

So, you were correct that OLED does have supply issues.  However, you were incorrect in saying it is the main hardware driver.  All of the other models are in short supply too.  People across the world are buying every single model regardless of whether it is OLED or not.  That means that OLED is not the main hardware driver.  OLED is one factor, but holiday software + backed up demand are also driving the Switch sales to completely sell out.  Lots of people will still buy a base Switch or Switch Lite to play BDSP or all of those Switch evergreens.

Now let's look at what I said about the shortages:
"Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo)."

I was saying that shortages are the only thing that could make Switch be down YoY (which we now know to be the case).  Also, I was saying if Switch is down YoY, then everyone will have severe shortages.  This is also the case.

Whose reasoning more accurately reflects the current reality?

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 22 December 2021