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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Series X/S sell in 2022?

         

How many units will Series X/S sell in 2022?

6-8M 1 $1.00 4.35%
 
8-10M 3 $613.00 13.04%
 
10-12M 14 $1,206.80 60.87%
 
12-15M 4 $162.04 17.39%
 
15M+ 1 $1.00 4.35%
 
 
Totals: 23 $1,983.84  
Game closed: 03/31/2022
Mnementh said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

I think that the exact number sold this year will be around 7m.
I wouldn't bet on it, but next year it will be around 8 ~ 9m.


Interesting. Xbox Series is at 6M currently and sold 300K in the week ending November 20th. To end up with 7M, christmas basically won't happen this year. Possible if supply really is dry, but seems kinda unlikely. My personal guess is that Series will end up with 8-9M this year and grow next year. but we'll see.

The Xbox and PS consoles usually sell a lot during Black Friday, but way less during christmas. Unlike the Switch which has its biggest weeks during december/Christmas



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I admittedly low-balled it and went for 8-10M. In hindsight I should have actually gone 10-12M, because I see it much closer to 10M than 8M. That being said, the reason I did so is the fact that the chip shortage will continue to impact production, and there will be multiple new product launches (GTX 3000-super and RX 7000) as well as the Steam Deck. I think that the shortages aren't going to stop.



Mnementh said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

I think that the exact number sold this year will be around 7m.
I wouldn't bet on it, but next year it will be around 8 ~ 9m.


Interesting. Xbox Series is at 6M currently and sold 300K in the week ending November 20th. To end up with 7M, christmas basically won't happen this year. Possible if supply really is dry, but seems kinda unlikely. My personal guess is that Series will end up with 8-9M this year and grow next year. but we'll see.

By the way, what does "we will see" mean?  Are you referring to the vgc numbers?



By the way, this is the poll result from last year's thread. According to VGC and Mnementh, it will be 9 million units at most this year. But if you look at the results of the poll, 70% of the respondents expected more than 10 million units. So being in the majority is not a guarantee of correctness.



Unfortunately, the chip shortage will continue throughout 2022, so I'm thinking at the most 10m. It very well could sell more, especially with Starfield at the end of the year, but there's only so much console makers can do.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Mnementh said:

Interesting. Xbox Series is at 6M currently and sold 300K in the week ending November 20th. To end up with 7M, christmas basically won't happen this year. Possible if supply really is dry, but seems kinda unlikely. My personal guess is that Series will end up with 8-9M this year and grow next year. but we'll see.

By the way, let's say XBS sells 8 to 9 million this year. How many units of ps5 do you think will be sold this year? Because I tend to guess based on the ratio of the two.

I don't know why you consider the ratio of the two, I think especially this gen they follow differing startegies and are not tied to each other. But I would say PS5 will end up with 13-15M this year.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Doctor_MG said:

I admittedly low-balled it and went for 8-10M. In hindsight I should have actually gone 10-12M, because I see it much closer to 10M than 8M. That being said, the reason I did so is the fact that the chip shortage will continue to impact production, and there will be multiple new product launches (GTX 3000-super and RX 7000) as well as the Steam Deck. I think that the shortages aren't going to stop.

This is a bet, until the bet is closed you can still edit it.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

10-12 million. While there is a healthy amount of demand for both versions of the Xbox Series, supply troubles for most components and electronics should continue for almost all of next year.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

yo33331 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

By the way, this is the poll result from last year's thread. According to VGC and Mnementh, it will be 9 million units at most this year. But if you look at the results of the poll, 70% of the respondents expected more than 10 million units. So being in the majority is not a guarantee of correctness.

Last year majority of people thought that the shortages will be over this year. And if that was true the series consoles could really do more than 10M this year.

Also this year it has some chance of actually reaching till 10M. It is not impossible. Black friday week alone will be at least around a milion. the other 4 weeks will be probably around 600-700k so it may reach the 10M number.

6 to 7 million on November 20th, right? They are not Nintendo. They can't sell more than 3 million in another month and 10 days.



Mnementh said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

By the way, let's say XBS sells 8 to 9 million this year. How many units of ps5 do you think will be sold this year? Because I tend to guess based on the ratio of the two.

I don't know why you consider the ratio of the two, I think especially this gen they follow differing startegies and are not tied to each other. But I would say PS5 will end up with 13-15M this year.

This is the ratio of how much XBS is selling when ps5 is 100. MS doesn't publish the numbers, so if we know the ratio, we can guess. And thanks. The ps5 is 13 to 15 and XBS is 8 to 9 . Now I know what ratio you are thinking of.