I'm wondering if the Switch will pass the Wii and PS1 this holiday season!
trunkswd said:
Unless sales are way down the Switch should have no problem passing the Wii by the end of the year. Switch will likely pass the PS1 at the end of the year or in the first week or 2 of 2022. |
The Switch needs 8.77m in Q3 to pass Wii and 9.63m to Pass PS1 by the end of the year. last year Switch sold 11.57m in Q3 and so far it is selling in line with last year, if it matches last year it will end the year on 104.44m. I'm really confident it will sell in the region of 11.5m in Q3 putting it above the Wii and PS1 by a couple of million.
calling it now switch wont be above one million next week
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trunkswd said:
Switch would have to be down by a massive amount to be below one million. It sold 1,680,741 Black Friday week last year. |
this holiday season is going to be dry
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Pokemon managed to accelerate Switch sales to be flat YoY, good result.
PlayStation and Xbox are both having difficulties shipping enough to live up to their predecessors this week, with PS4 selling 498k the week before BF 2014 and XBO selling 380k the week before BF 2014.
However PS5 is still ahead of PS4 and XSX is still miles ahead of XBO.
Hoping for good shipments next week but this might be a disappointing holiday.
| yo33331 said: So are the vgchartz estimates 100% sure that the few past weeks the PS4 and XB1 have received 0% bump in sales despite the holiday sales season ? |
You really think that Sony and Microsoft made any attempt to increase stock of their previous gen consoles for the holidays when they aren't even able to produce enough of their current gen consoles? Transitions from previous gens have no bearing on this year since this year is dealing with a global chip shortage.
Great numbers all around. Xbox Series will pass 10 million soon. PS5 is also doing great. And Switch got a nice bump from Pokémon.
yo33331 said:
I agree. However there could have been at least a slight bump .. Other years previous gen consoles have gone from 20k weekly to 50-70k. So at least some 5-10k despite shortages is still reasonable .. And the next gen consoles also have shortages but they are getting bumps in the holiday season. Just like any other holiday season .. So there isn't even 5-10k slight bump on the XB1 and PS4 ? |
yes next week
"I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007
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yo33331 said:
I agree. However there could have been at least a slight bump .. Other years previous gen consoles have gone from 20k weekly to 50-70k. |
Can't bump if there's no stock. Amazon, Game, Shopto, Argos. Everywhere I look in the UK online I can't find PS4 stock in the UK, I assume the situation is similar in other countries.
Sony just aren't making enough PS4's, every PS4 they ship sells and they're only shipping about 20k a week.
ShadowLink93 said:
The Switch needs 8.77m in Q3 to pass Wii and 9.63m to Pass PS1 by the end of the year. last year Switch sold 11.57m in Q3 and so far it is selling in line with last year, if it matches last year it will end the year on 104.44m. I'm really confident it will sell in the region of 11.5m in Q3 putting it above the Wii and PS1 by a couple of million. |
Awesome table! I have applied a simple intuitive regression analysis based on the data above in order to estimate the quarterly software sales figures. The model simply assumes;
a) Quarterly NEW hardware sales (x1) are positively correlated with software sales;
b) Quarterly CUMULATIVE hardware sales (x2) are also positively correlated with software sales (thru a different channel).
In other words, both the quarterly hardware sales AND the Install base simultaneously affect SW sales. Analytically speaking, the model is defined as,
Y = Betha_0 + Betha_1 * X1 + Betha_2 * X2 + Error Term
where Betha_1 is the slope (impact factor) of quarterly sales, an Betha_2 is the slope of cumulative hardware sales.
Interestingly the estimate function is acquired as Y = -0.4328 + 3.7718 * X1 + 0.4133 * X2,
where R_square = 95% with P-values and F-value practically zero. In other words, the model can explain 95% of the variation in SW sales with 99.99% confidence. Long story short, the moral of the story,
1) We can easily and accurately estimate the software sales by knowing the quarterly and cumulative hardware sales,
2) Cumulative hardware sales (Install base) is incrementally getting more important according to the model, so as time goes on, it becomes incrementally easier to estimate SW sales even without quarterly sales.
Here is a comparison between the quarterly software sales and the model estimates from 2016-2017 q4 thru 2021-22 q2
| 5.46 | 11.03 |
| 8.14 | 8.90 |
| 13.88 | 13.77 |
| 25.08 | 32.98 |
| 16.41 | 17.97 |
| 17.96 | 14.79 |
| 24.17 | 21.05 |
| 52.51 | 48.40 |
| 23.91 | 23.24 |
| 22.62 | 22.84 |
| 35.87 | 34.89 |
| 64.64 | 62.03 |
| 45.59 | 35.02 |
| 50.43 | 46.34 |
| 49.82 | 53.67 |
| 75.85 | 76.21 |
| 54.78 | 52.33 |
| 45.29 | 53.15 |
| 48.60 | 52.39 |
Thanks for reading and please feel free to comment.
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
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