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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

This firm's estimates are for the end of September LTD - 6.7 million sold for XS. 

--

Welfare's XS LTD (shipped, presumably) estimate - 8.3 million:

twitter.com/Welfare_Queen_I/status/1453093352187043852

--

ZHuge's XS LTD sell-in estimate - 8+ million:

twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1453438307996774400

--

Will's VGC XS LTD sold estimate - 7.72 million. 

Last edited by Machina - on 19 November 2021

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Zippy6 said:
drkohler said:

Those are some mighty fast ships.. Actual shipping times currently are around 7 to 8 weeks (if by shipping you actually mean ships which still is the standard way).

Yet the numbers from Ampere that started this discussion on the accuracy of current tracking have PS5 at 12.8m with 13.4m shipped. So clearly Ampere don't agree it takes 7 to 8 weeks to ship if their sell-through is only 600k below shipped for PS5.

This actually is a direct result of shortages. Fewer units produced and the need to distribute them worldwide leads to the pattern we see. Weekly shipment numbers are very considerably lower than in past years. So instead of, say, 100'000 consoles on any particular ship, there are currently only 20-30k on a ship. This fits very well with 600k in transit.

This is a no-brainer, you can check positions of any freight ships on the oceans and their schedules. This is not a secret, it can easily be googled.



drkohler said:
Zippy6 said:

Yet the numbers from Ampere that started this discussion on the accuracy of current tracking have PS5 at 12.8m with 13.4m shipped. So clearly Ampere don't agree it takes 7 to 8 weeks to ship if their sell-through is only 600k below shipped for PS5.

This actually is a direct result of shortages. Fewer units produced and the need to distribute them worldwide leads to the pattern we see. Weekly shipment numbers are very considerably lower than in past years. So instead of, say, 100'000 consoles on any particular ship, there are currently only 20-30k on a ship. This fits very well with 600k in transit.

This is a no-brainer, you can check positions of any freight ships on the oceans and their schedules. This is not a secret, it can easily be googled.

You say difference between sell-through and shipped should be 7-8 weeks, difference between ps5 shipped and sold-through from those numbers is 600k.

So you are saying Sony is shipping less than 100k ps5's per week. And stores between September 30th and now (7 weeks later) only got 600k stock delivered and thus sell-through for ps5 would have to be less than 100k a week. No.

Allowing 7-8 weeks of sales from shipments to sell-through lines up with no official sell-through and shipment figures we've ever had.



Zippy6 said:

Allowing 7-8 weeks of sales from shipments to sell-through lines up with no official sell-through and shipment figures we've ever had.

You are making a mistake in thinking. Think about what I wrote (it does not have to be the truth but _is_ consistent with the data) and you might figure it out yourself.



Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

This firm's estimates are for the end of September LTD - 6.7 million sold for XS. 

--

Welfare's XS LTD (shipped, presumably) estimate - 8.3 million:

twitter.com/Welfare_Queen_I/status/1453093352187043852

--

ZHuge's XS LTD sell-in estimate - 8+ million:

twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1453438307996774400

--

Will's VGC XS LTD sold estimate - 7.72 million. 

So that would leave around 300-500k on shelves for the Series ? Despite the Series S being widely available outside the us 



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

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Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

This firm's estimates are for the end of September LTD - 6.7 million sold for XS. 

--

Welfare's XS LTD (shipped, presumably) estimate - 8.3 million:

twitter.com/Welfare_Queen_I/status/1453093352187043852

--

ZHuge's XS LTD sell-in estimate - 8+ million:

twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1453438307996774400

--

Will's VGC XS LTD sold estimate - 7.72 million. 

Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

I wouldn't put a cent worth of money on their analysis. For all we know VGC is slightly more accurate and even it is completely unreliable for Xbox since there isn't much formal data to make the corrections.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

I wouldn't put a cent worth of money on their analysis. For all we know VGC is slightly more accurate and even it is completely unreliable for Xbox since there isn't much formal data to make the corrections.

^This.  I also trust VGC to make downward adjustments to Xbox when it is needed.  Additionally I'm not on another chart site, I'm on VG Chartz and will rely on the data they provide when making posts or threads.  



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

DroidKnight said:
DonFerrari said:

I wouldn't put a cent worth of money on their analysis. For all we know VGC is slightly more accurate and even it is completely unreliable for Xbox since there isn't much formal data to make the corrections.

^This.  I also trust VGC to make downward adjustments to Xbox when it is needed.  Additionally I'm not on another chart site, I'm on VG Chartz and will rely on the data they provide when making posts or threads.  

Yep, sure we can discuss other predictions and forecasts, and in some cases with proper evidence we can even push for the site to adjust. But for regular discussion of how the systems are doing we should stick to the VGC numbers for WW, for USA there is the NPD thread and Japan the Media Create.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

There's no concrete information either way, sales will sort themselves out in the end and adjustments will be made if needed in the future. There's no point kicking up a fuss about it. If Switch and Xbox are overtracked like Ampere's estimates claim then they will be sorted out eventually, but there's nothing concrete here that means adjustments MUST be made right now. Trunk's knows better about when to adjust VGC numbers and what really shows VGC numbers are wrong than we do. He has knowledge and information on the matter that we do not.