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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

DroidKnight on 19 November 2021
DonFerrari said:

I wouldn't put a cent worth of money on their analysis. For all we know VGC is slightly more accurate and even it is completely unreliable for Xbox since there isn't much formal data to make the corrections.

^This.  I also trust VGC to make downward adjustments to Xbox when it is needed.  Additionally I'm not on another chart site, I'm on VG Chartz and will rely on the data they provide when making posts or threads.  



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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DonFerrari on 19 November 2021
DroidKnight said:
DonFerrari said:

I wouldn't put a cent worth of money on their analysis. For all we know VGC is slightly more accurate and even it is completely unreliable for Xbox since there isn't much formal data to make the corrections.

^This.  I also trust VGC to make downward adjustments to Xbox when it is needed.  Additionally I'm not on another chart site, I'm on VG Chartz and will rely on the data they provide when making posts or threads.  

Yep, sure we can discuss other predictions and forecasts, and in some cases with proper evidence we can even push for the site to adjust. But for regular discussion of how the systems are doing we should stick to the VGC numbers for WW, for USA there is the NPD thread and Japan the Media Create.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Zippy6 on 19 November 2021

There's no concrete information either way, sales will sort themselves out in the end and adjustments will be made if needed in the future. There's no point kicking up a fuss about it. If Switch and Xbox are overtracked like Ampere's estimates claim then they will be sorted out eventually, but there's nothing concrete here that means adjustments MUST be made right now. Trunk's knows better about when to adjust VGC numbers and what really shows VGC numbers are wrong than we do. He has knowledge and information on the matter that we do not.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

Kakadu18 on 19 November 2021
eva01beserk said:
Ashadelo said:

Need the numbers to sooth the pain of a lack of holiday playstation games.

I know..who cares about numbers. The only necessary data is how many miles ran. Planes crashed. Bullets shot. Games left on idle while taking a dump. Wishes of gamers wanting other platforms games to come to theirs. The important metrics. 

Miles doesn't run, he swings.



Zippy6 on 19 November 2021
Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

1) Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

2) And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Yep VGC had Switch USA numbers at about 712k in October, then Nintendo announces official figures that they sold 711k, so tracking for Switch was exceptional. So trusting Ampere's estimates that say Switch was over-tracked by 1.8m somehow as of September 30th doesn't seem like the right course without further information to back that up.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

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AJNShelton on 19 November 2021

The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue



DonFerrari on 19 November 2021
trunkswd said:
SKMBlake said:

The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue

The quarterly numbers are the biggest help for adjustments as we generally know how the usual gap between shipped vs sold. Though, right now that gap is far smaller than usual due to the shortages. Even Switch stock is more limited than what is typical. 

One way I use historical data is looking at how much above or below PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales are compared to PS4 and Xbox One. And for Switch how well sales have been compared to last year, 2 years ago, etc. Of course I also use all available data. 

Not to mention Sony mentioning their own estimates of sell-through when there is a milestone or how close it is compared to PS4. I would say that for any given month VGC could be even 25% off (not normal), but when looking for LTD it would be less than 5% off.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 19 November 2021
Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

1) Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

2) And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Whenever Will's estimates end up being off then he adjusts them - he always does.

2) Exactly. 

You are ignoring that only the Xbox numbers are very much larger than the WELFARE estimates.

And this is a comparison with Welfare's numbers, not an actual estimate.

One more thing, if Nintendo is right about being in line with NPD, does that mean that NPD is the right number for VGC?

Comparisons can be made for past months.can you give us the data for VGC's previous usa months?

2) I am not sure.

Ampere estimates the Xbox number to be 6.7million by September. This is not in line with ZhugeEX and welfare's estimate that Xbox has sold over 8million. Which does VGC think is correct ?

On the other hand trunkswd claims that ps5 numbers are in line with Ampere's estimate of 12.8million.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 19 November 2021

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 19 November 2021

trunkswd seems to be pleased that the switch us numbers for October are in line with NPD. So are the NPD numbers correct for VGC?



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 19 November 2021

If so, how do they explain the consistently higher usa xbs  numbers for VGC than for npd?

What is right for Nintendo is different for xbs.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 20 November 2021