By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

eva01beserk on 18 November 2021
jason1637 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

VGC numbers. A lot of people seem to believe in it.

VGC numbers make sense when you do the math on MS Revenue numbers but those are shipments so it depends on how much they actually sell through.

With how bad scalpers where at the begining of this gen I would say no estimate is safe. Specially one based on extrapolation from revenue since scalped hardware does not generate software sales. And if take things as normals with the known attach rate then mess things up. So I say they are both just as credible. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Around the Network
Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
Zippy6 said:
Kjartan said:

Is XS overtracked on Vgchartz? Such a shame Microsoft doesn't provide numbers.

It's impossible to say with certainty that these numbers given here are any closer than VGC numbers.

If Ampere is right then XS is overtracked by 1m and Switch is overtracked by 2m while PS5 is about right.

If I remember correctly. trunkswd should be trusting ZhugeEX.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 18 November 2021
Zippy6 said:
SKMBlake said:

How can they think there are 3 million Switches sitting on shelves ?

Considering the shipment number of 92.87m includes OLED models and the week after VGC's number is OLED launch where Switch sold a whopping 800k I do think VGC might be slightly over-tracking Switch, but 89.7m seems crazy to me.

The difference between 93 and 90 is 3.3 percent, and the difference between 7.6 and 6.7 is 13.4 percent. It seems impossible to make the same error for both. Also, this is an estimate and we can't expect the numbers to match exactly.



LudicrousSpeed on 18 November 2021

A 50/50 split wouldn’t surprise me. I have a lot of friends still unable to find a Series X even a year after launch. The S is not easy to find by any means but it is way easier. Stores around here get a steady supply of a small amount of consoles.



Doctor_MG on 18 November 2021

I find the number for Switch, 89.7M, to be suspect seeing as Nintendo shipped 89.04M consoles as of June, 30th, 2021 and Nintendo shipped 3.83M consoles in Q2. It seems like Ampere is suggesting that this entire shipment, minus a little under 700k, was done in the last few weeks of the quarter, so they never actually hit store shelves.

IDK, that just seems a bit off to me.



Around the Network
Doctor_MG on 18 November 2021
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

The difference between 93 and 90 is 3.3 percent, and the difference between 7.6 and 6.7 is 13.4 percent. It seems impossible to make the same error for both. Also, this is an estimate and we can't expect the numbers to match exactly.

I don't think taking the totals and looking at the estimation is the best way to go about this. Seeing as we know Nintendo's shipment numbers for fact, it'd probably be better to go off of the sales data for this fiscal year. It's not like Ampere and VGChartz have gone all the way to 93M and 90M without adjustments based on Nintendo's shipment information. 



Blood_Tears on 18 November 2021
trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

What access does Welfare have to sales data that makes him more credible than Ampere? Besides just Tweeting out his own guesses after MS's revenue report that is. 



AJNShelton on 18 November 2021
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Zippy6 said:

It's impossible to say with certainty that these numbers given here are any closer than VGC numbers.

If Ampere is right then XS is overtracked by 1m and Switch is overtracked by 2m while PS5 is about right.

If I remember correctly. trunkswd should be trusting ZhugeEX.

@trunkswd

What do you think of this ? Just out of curiosity, since Daniel Amhad seems to kinda trust their figures then.



AJNShelton on 18 November 2021
trunkswd said:
SKMBlake said:

@trunkswd

What do you think of this ? Just out of curiosity, since Daniel Amhad seems to kinda trust their figures then.

I know he used the word integrity, but he also mentions they are still only estimates. The gap between estimated shipments and Ampere sell-through estimates are 1.5 million or higher at the end of September. Series X we know is sold out worldwide, while Series S is easier to find there still isn't that much stock in the US. I don't see well over 1 million Series S consoles sitting on shelves.

Yeah but your estimations are sell-through as well, right ?



Dulfite on 18 November 2021

*Puts blindfold on*