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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

Ashadelo said:
DroidKnight said:

We should ignore their Switch numbers because those are obviously wrong. The PS5 numbers should be reported in such a way that produces the most positive outlook to help the declining moral of the playstation crowd. The Xbox numbers should be adjusted way down because that just makes the most sense, not to mention it will help to put a damper on all that positivity that oozes from their side. Xbox doesn't report numbers anyways so who knows what the actual numbers are.

In summary:
Post the best Switch numbers
Adjust PS5 to best possible light
Crush Xbox

Need the numbers to sooth the pain of a lack of holiday playstation games.

I know..who cares about numbers. The only necessary data is how many miles ran. Planes crashed. Bullets shot. Games left on idle while taking a dump. Wishes of gamers wanting other platforms games to come to theirs. The important metrics. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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jason1637 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

VGC numbers. A lot of people seem to believe in it.

VGC numbers make sense when you do the math on MS Revenue numbers but those are shipments so it depends on how much they actually sell through.

With how bad scalpers where at the begining of this gen I would say no estimate is safe. Specially one based on extrapolation from revenue since scalped hardware does not generate software sales. And if take things as normals with the known attach rate then mess things up. So I say they are both just as credible. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Zippy6 said:
Kjartan said:

Is XS overtracked on Vgchartz? Such a shame Microsoft doesn't provide numbers.

It's impossible to say with certainty that these numbers given here are any closer than VGC numbers.

If Ampere is right then XS is overtracked by 1m and Switch is overtracked by 2m while PS5 is about right.

If I remember correctly. trunkswd should be trusting ZhugeEX.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Zippy6 said:
SKMBlake said:

How can they think there are 3 million Switches sitting on shelves ?

Considering the shipment number of 92.87m includes OLED models and the week after VGC's number is OLED launch where Switch sold a whopping 800k I do think VGC might be slightly over-tracking Switch, but 89.7m seems crazy to me.

The difference between 93 and 90 is 3.3 percent, and the difference between 7.6 and 6.7 is 13.4 percent. It seems impossible to make the same error for both. Also, this is an estimate and we can't expect the numbers to match exactly.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

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A 50/50 split wouldn’t surprise me. I have a lot of friends still unable to find a Series X even a year after launch. The S is not easy to find by any means but it is way easier. Stores around here get a steady supply of a small amount of consoles.



I find the number for Switch, 89.7M, to be suspect seeing as Nintendo shipped 89.04M consoles as of June, 30th, 2021 and Nintendo shipped 3.83M consoles in Q2. It seems like Ampere is suggesting that this entire shipment, minus a little under 700k, was done in the last few weeks of the quarter, so they never actually hit store shelves.

IDK, that just seems a bit off to me.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

The difference between 93 and 90 is 3.3 percent, and the difference between 7.6 and 6.7 is 13.4 percent. It seems impossible to make the same error for both. Also, this is an estimate and we can't expect the numbers to match exactly.

I don't think taking the totals and looking at the estimation is the best way to go about this. Seeing as we know Nintendo's shipment numbers for fact, it'd probably be better to go off of the sales data for this fiscal year. It's not like Ampere and VGChartz have gone all the way to 93M and 90M without adjustments based on Nintendo's shipment information. 



Doctor_MG said:

I find the number for Switch, 89.7M, to be suspect seeing as Nintendo shipped 89.04M consoles as of June, 30th, 2021 and Nintendo shipped 3.83M consoles in Q2. It seems like Ampere is suggesting that this entire shipment, minus a little under 700k, was done in the last few weeks of the quarter, so they never actually hit store shelves.

IDK, that just seems a bit off to me.

I agree their Switch estimates are too low from what we are seeing. 

As for Xbox Series X|S earlier I said, "We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5)."



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

What access does Welfare have to sales data that makes him more credible than Ampere? Besides just Tweeting out his own guesses after MS's revenue report that is.