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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

eva01beserk said:
Ashadelo said:

Need the numbers to sooth the pain of a lack of holiday playstation games.

I know..who cares about numbers. The only necessary data is how many miles ran. Planes crashed. Bullets shot. Games left on idle while taking a dump. Wishes of gamers wanting other platforms games to come to theirs. The important metrics. 

Miles doesn't run, he swings.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Machina said:

This firm's estimates are for the end of September LTD - 6.7 million sold for XS. 

--

Welfare's XS LTD (shipped, presumably) estimate - 8.3 million:

twitter.com/Welfare_Queen_I/status/1453093352187043852

--

ZHuge's XS LTD sell-in estimate - 8+ million:

twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1453438307996774400

--

Will's VGC XS LTD sold estimate - 7.72 million. 

1) Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

2) And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Whenever Will's estimates end up being off then he adjusts them - he always does.

2) Exactly. 



Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

1) Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

2) And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Yep VGC had Switch USA numbers at about 712k in October, then Nintendo announces official figures that they sold 711k, so tracking for Switch was exceptional. So trusting Ampere's estimates that say Switch was over-tracked by 1.8m somehow as of September 30th doesn't seem like the right course without further information to back that up.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

Those predictions are done BEFORE we get any NPD numbers. Nintendo came out Switch sold 711K, while we had them as you pointed out at 712,755. So, Welfare before any information came out had Switch 61K too low.



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The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue



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If we get more data showing Ampere is right with Switch and Xbox Series X|S I will adjust our numbers. But right now the data we have is showing we are closer to being right. Once the ResetEra prediction league final estimated numbers come out for PS5 and XS I will adjust our numbers to match.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

SKMBlake said:

The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue

The quarterly numbers are the biggest help for adjustments as we generally know how the usual gap between shipped vs sold. Though, right now that gap is far smaller than usual due to the shortages. Even Switch stock is more limited than what is typical. 

One way I use historical data is looking at how much above or below PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales are compared to PS4 and Xbox One. And for Switch how well sales have been compared to last year, 2 years ago, etc. Of course I also use all available data. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
SKMBlake said:

The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue

The quarterly numbers are the biggest help for adjustments as we generally know how the usual gap between shipped vs sold. Though, right now that gap is far smaller than usual due to the shortages. Even Switch stock is more limited than what is typical. 

One way I use historical data is looking at how much above or below PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales are compared to PS4 and Xbox One. And for Switch how well sales have been compared to last year, 2 years ago, etc. Of course I also use all available data. 

Not to mention Sony mentioning their own estimates of sell-through when there is a milestone or how close it is compared to PS4. I would say that for any given month VGC could be even 25% off (not normal), but when looking for LTD it would be less than 5% off.



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DonFerrari said:
trunkswd said:

The quarterly numbers are the biggest help for adjustments as we generally know how the usual gap between shipped vs sold. Though, right now that gap is far smaller than usual due to the shortages. Even Switch stock is more limited than what is typical. 

One way I use historical data is looking at how much above or below PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales are compared to PS4 and Xbox One. And for Switch how well sales have been compared to last year, 2 years ago, etc. Of course I also use all available data. 

Not to mention Sony mentioning their own estimates of sell-through when there is a milestone or how close it is compared to PS4. I would say that for any given month VGC could be even 25% off (not normal), but when looking for LTD it would be less than 5% off.

That slipped my mind. You are correct. When we put PS5 estimates at 10 million we were exactly one week ahead of Sony's own sell-through estimates my one week. While we were close I did adjust our estimates to match Sony's.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Machina said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

1) Well, I was writing about the discrepancy between welfare's NPD predictions and the VGC. Among other things, why is the Xbox only bigger? Will you answer that?

2) And the numbers that ZhugeEX and welfare gave about Xbox sales don't match the ampere , do they? Since it is 6.7million.

After all, what does VGC match with. 

1) It isn't only Xbox that's bigger; they're all bigger for October. Switch by 52k, PS5 by 28k, and XS by 99k - and our Switch figure ended up being much closer to NPD's in the end. 

Whenever Will's estimates end up being off then he adjusts them - he always does.

2) Exactly. 

You are ignoring that only the Xbox numbers are very much larger than the WELFARE estimates.

And this is a comparison with Welfare's numbers, not an actual estimate.

One more thing, if Nintendo is right about being in line with NPD, does that mean that NPD is the right number for VGC?

Comparisons can be made for past months.can you give us the data for VGC's previous usa months?

2) I am not sure.

Ampere estimates the Xbox number to be 6.7million by September. This is not in line with ZhugeEX and welfare's estimate that Xbox has sold over 8million. Which does VGC think is correct ?

On the other hand trunkswd claims that ps5 numbers are in line with Ampere's estimate of 12.8million.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 19 November 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m