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Forums - Sales Discussion - Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

Blood_Tears said:
trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

What access does Welfare have to sales data that makes him more credible than Ampere? Besides just Tweeting out his own guesses after MS's revenue report that is. 

He doesn't but his estimated shipment numbers are inline with Zhuge and our data.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Zippy6 said:

It's impossible to say with certainty that these numbers given here are any closer than VGC numbers.

If Ampere is right then XS is overtracked by 1m and Switch is overtracked by 2m while PS5 is about right.

If I remember correctly. trunkswd should be trusting ZhugeEX.

@trunkswd

What do you think of this ? Just out of curiosity, since Daniel Amhad seems to kinda trust their figures then.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

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SKMBlake said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

If I remember correctly. trunkswd should be trusting ZhugeEX.

@trunkswd

What do you think of this ? Just out of curiosity, since Daniel Amhad seems to kinda trust their figures then.

I know he used the word integrity, but he also mentions they are still only estimates. The gap between estimated shipments and Ampere sell-through estimates are 1.5 million or higher at the end of September. Series X we know is sold out worldwide, while Series S is easier to find there still isn't that much stock in the US. I don't see well over 1 million Series S consoles sitting on shelves.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
SKMBlake said:

@trunkswd

What do you think of this ? Just out of curiosity, since Daniel Amhad seems to kinda trust their figures then.

I know he used the word integrity, but he also mentions they are still only estimates. The gap between estimated shipments and Ampere sell-through estimates are 1.5 million or higher at the end of September. Series X we know is sold out worldwide, while Series S is easier to find there still isn't that much stock in the US. I don't see well over 1 million Series S consoles sitting on shelves.

Yeah but your estimations are sell-through as well, right ?



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

SKMBlake said:
trunkswd said:

I know he used the word integrity, but he also mentions they are still only estimates. The gap between estimated shipments and Ampere sell-through estimates are 1.5 million or higher at the end of September. Series X we know is sold out worldwide, while Series S is easier to find there still isn't that much stock in the US. I don't see well over 1 million Series S consoles sitting on shelves.

Yeah but your estimations are sell-through as well, right ?

Yes, our estimates are sell-through. We have a gap of about 500K-750K between our estimated sell-through and estimates shipped. That takes into account the 2 to 3 weeks to ship consoles worldwide, as well as the Series S consoles sitting on shelves in Europe and other places.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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*Puts blindfold on*



trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 19 November 2021

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
trunkswd said:

These are just estimates like our data. They have a gap of well over 3 million for Switch. Even right before OLED launch is a huge gap. Especially with the shortages going on.

We have estimated Xbox Series X|S shipment numbers between 8.25m-8.5m, which is in line with what Zhuge and Welfare have estimated shipment numbers at. Our sell-through is at 7.72m as of October 2 or about 4-5 weeks of sales at the sales pace at the time. It takes a few weeks for consoles to ship worldwide and the rest of the gap would be Series S not selling out like the Series X (or PS5).

VGC and Ampere PS5 estimates match up.

This is Welfare's Prediction for October NPD(left) and vgc October usa numbers(right).

[NSW] 650K : 712,755(9.5%↑)
[PS5] 300K : 328,466(9.3%↑)
[XBS] 200K : 299,407(49.5%↑)

Are you really affected by the predictions of WELFARE? And why is the Xbox only getting bigger? This seems to be a consistent trend, not just in October.

Well that's definitly interesting



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

trunkswd said:

That takes into account the 2 to 3 weeks to ship consoles worldwide,

Those are some mighty fast ships.. Actual shipping times currently are around 7 to 8 weeks (if by shipping you actually mean ships which still is the standard way).



drkohler said:
trunkswd said:

That takes into account the 2 to 3 weeks to ship consoles worldwide,

Those are some mighty fast ships.. Actual shipping times currently are around 7 to 8 weeks (if by shipping you actually mean ships which still is the standard way).

Yet the numbers from Ampere that started this discussion on the accuracy of current tracking have PS5 at 12.8m with 13.4m shipped. So clearly Ampere don't agree it takes 7 to 8 weeks to ship if their sell-through is only 600k below shipped for PS5.