Data analyst Ampere: Xbox Series X/S sales at 6.7 million by Sep 30th, S outselling X in key markets

[DonFerrari]

trunkswd said:

SKMBlake said:

The thing about the accuracy, is that it is being helped a lot by the quarterly reports we have from Sony and Nintendo, helping a lot the calculations over the years (and Will said himself that his calculations are also based on historical figures).

But anyway, we all trusted VGC so far, so why not continue

The quarterly numbers are the biggest help for adjustments as we generally know how the usual gap between shipped vs sold. Though, right now that gap is far smaller than usual due to the shortages. Even Switch stock is more limited than what is typical. 

One way I use historical data is looking at how much above or below PS5 and Xbox Series X|S sales are compared to PS4 and Xbox One. And for Switch how well sales have been compared to last year, 2 years ago, etc. Of course I also use all available data. 

Not to mention Sony mentioning their own estimates of sell-through when there is a milestone or how close it is compared to PS4. I would say that for any given month VGC could be even 25% off (not normal), but when looking for LTD it would be less than 5% off.