Wman1996 on 29 November 2021
Indies could slow somewhat more on PS4, given that the PS5 replaced it a year ago now. That and the way PSN is set up for indies as well as PC and Switch being more favorable for indies.
I think most Western publisher AAA support will phase out to very little games around the same time for PS4 and Xbox One. And that time will be late 2023 or so. Japanese publishers will hold on to the PS4 at least that long, I think. But they'll drop Xbox before that. Pretty sure the only Japanese games that do well on Xbox in the past 8 or so years are those published but not developed by Japanese game studios. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Japanese devs and consumers could care less about Xbox One. And for the most part, they could care less about Xbox in general.
I think something helping both the PS4 and Xbox One is the shortage of their successors, the existence of the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, and that PS5 and Xbox Series S/X titles can usually relatively easily be downscaled to eighth generation hardware.
And although it's not part of this thread directly, 2022 should be the last year for first-party content on Xbox One and PS4. I'd be surprised to see even 1 first-party game on either of them in 2023.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima