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Wman1996 said:

Indies could slow somewhat more on PS4, given that the PS5 replaced it a year ago now. That and the way PSN is set up for indies as well as PC and Switch being more favorable for indies.
I think most Western publisher AAA support will phase out to very little games around the same time for PS4 and Xbox One. And that time will be late 2023 or so. Japanese publishers will hold on to the PS4 at least that long, I think. But they'll drop Xbox before that. Pretty sure the only Japanese games that do well on Xbox in the past 8 or so years are those published but not developed by Japanese game studios. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Japanese devs and consumers could care less about Xbox One. And for the most part, they could care less about Xbox in general.
I think something helping both the PS4 and Xbox One is the shortage of their successors, the existence of the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, and that PS5 and Xbox Series S/X titles can usually relatively easily be downscaled to eighth generation hardware.
And although it's not part of this thread directly, 2022 should be the last year for first-party content on Xbox One and PS4. I'd be surprised to see even 1 first-party game on either of them in 2023.

I agree with your first-party content comment, and would add that it may dry up even faster for Xbox One, since all first-party Xbox content goes into Game Pass, and we now have xCloud streaming to Xbox One consoles.  Microsoft can encourage Xbox One owners to get first-party content by subscribing to Game Pass ultimate and streaming the game to their consoles off of a Series X server.

It's not a perfect solution (people with bad internet, people who live far away from a Microsoft server farm, people who live in a country that doesn't have xCloud streaming yet), but it's a "good enough" solution.  Especially now that the Series S is relatively easy to get, and relatively cheap, for those that can't or won't go the streaming route.

And yes, I think your comments are another reason to think that Xbox One support will dry up faster than PS4 support.  As for indies, Switch and PC definitely seem more favourable for indies.  The surprise to me is that Xbox recently seems more favourable to indies.  We'll see indie support for Xbox One much longer than AAA support, I suspect.