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Forums - Sales Discussion - October NPD 2021 thread

Completely nailed it lol.

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trunkswd said:
mk7sx said:

Completely nailed it lol.

Right? We are rarely that close. I mean sure I wish we were always that close. But considering the amount of data is available I do my best to be as close as possible.

Have you seen Welfare's US stock drop thread for XBS/PS5?  Would that be helpful data for US estimations?


I am not a Nintendo fan in any area really but damn I respect them for coming out and giving an actual public number like this. We don't really get PR anymore with numbers etc. Everything is a god damn secret these days and companies won't say what they sold in a given month. Sony does at times with quarterly shipments or software milestones but for the most part they suck at this and never give NPD numbers anymore. Microsoft is the worst offender for that with having to breakdown HW revenue to even hazard a guess at what they sold.

Where is the cliff?

I do sincerely think the Switch is top 3 all time. It will hit a good 130 million, with perhaps more. Massive success.

November with Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl, New Horizon expansion, GTA Trilogy digital release & SMT V launch & OLED demand is going to be insane for Nintendo in North America. Last year their big November release was Age of Calamity. 

Also as far as supply Nintendo's forecast means that it's still possible to surpass last years FYH2 result, and I think the cliff wont happen in 2022 since Switch would be in it's software peak, Breath of the Wild sequel, Arceus, Splatoon 3, Kirby and the Forgotten Land they have a very strong line-up to maintain momentum with accelerating third party support.  

Last edited by noshten - on 12 November 2021

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trunkswd said:

Since I noticed the October NPD thread hasn't been posted I thought I would post it for this month.

Figures released by Nintendo:

  • NS: 711,000
    • OLED: 314,000
  • Metroid Dread: 854,000 


  • PS5: ??
  • XS: ??

VGChartz data before any adjustments are done:

  1. NS: 712,755
  2. PS5: 328,466
  3. XS: 299,407

I am very impressed how close this is. 

Guardians flopped

So that 854k figure for Metroid Dread, is that with or without digital?

Because Nintendo typically doesn't include digital sales in these NPD reports. So did Bowser stick to that for this or did he just feel like bragging? Because if those sales are without digital, then that would make it even MORE impressive.

trunkswd said:
noshten said:

November with Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl, New Horizon expansion, GTA Trilogy digital release & SMT V launch & OLED demand is going to be insane for Nintendo,
Last year their big November release was Age of Calamity

Switch lineup this holiday is far better than last year. The big question this year is stock as Nintendo has lowered its forecast for the currently fiscal year to 24 million due to supply shortages. 

I believe that most of that lowered forecast is due to a weaker H1, which already took place. Holiday Quarter should be able to be very close to last year to make their new forecast. 

OLED to me seems a more popular refresh than the Lite, it's facing supply problems despite shipping over 1 million in its launch month. Lite shipped 5.19 million launch quarter that's the figure to beat for the OLED. Even with the production problems they probably wanted to have at least 5 million units shipped EOY, and I think OLED can get as high as 6 million. Famitsu will provide an early indication with the Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl launch 

It all depends on whether they lowered expectations expecting to have a chance to outperform them and reach their initial forecast, while driving much-higher revenue this holiday due to the OLED. 

Congrats on the extremely close NS numbers. With that we know that hardware dollars is $472M and using the breakdown from Nintendo on the OLED and Legacy,it comes ot $220M give or take. That leaves $259M for hardware. assuming that legacy systems (PS4/Pro/XboxOne/X) is 1% that leave $258M for next gen. Assuming a ASP of $479 for all consoles (80|20 PS5; 90|10 for Xbox) that is about 540K consoles, the added total for VGChartz is 628K.