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Forums - Sales Discussion - October NPD 2021 thread

tbone51 said:

My breakdown in my best estimate. Ship+Digital by roughly first week of November-ish

NoA: 1150k-1200k
Asia: 275k
Euro: 500k
RotW: 200k

total: roughly 2mil

NoA [spoiler] US 854k sold with digital I say 75k-100k on shelves ready to be sold to make it 925k-950k First month of US. Canada is usually 10% of US so I have it around 125k-150k ship+digital and Mexico a bit lower at 75k-90k [/spoiler]

Asia [spoiler] 126k retail with 10k on shelves imo. Add in digital because of vouchers and out of stock for a week or so puts it around 230k. Add 45k total for rest of Asia 275k! [/spoiler]

Euro [spoiler] UK 39k with let’s say 11k on shelves 50k. Same with Spain 34k to make it 45k. Add digital it’s 70k UK / 65k Spain ship+Digital 135k. France if true had a rumored 120k shipment initially. With digital put it around let’s say 160k. Germany and all the other countries combine for ship+digital 200k. Roughly 500k imo [/spoiler]

Your spoilers didn't work. But cool breakdown.



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Oh wow that's pretty spot on for the Switch numbers. Congrats guys ! Kinda a shame some people still point out the site for being totally out of touch when the tool has been working pretty darn well for a while now.



Hold on



I was curious so I did some numbers. All sold numbers are adjusted for inflation from the midway point of said console's life. All are based on original prices, not taking discounts and new iterations into account, assuming they roughly balance each other out.

Wii - 101.64 mil, $322 each, $32.7b
DS - 154.90 mil, $192.70 each, $29.895b

Total Revenue from hardware - $62.595 billion

Switch - 130mil + with $300 price tag by mid point (2021) is $39 billion.

Total Revenue from hardware - $39 billion

If these numbers are correct, then it would take them selling a whopping 210 million Switches to make hardware revenue from the Wii + DS era. But what about profit?

According to:

Detructoid, Nintendo profited $6 per Wii sold, or $610 million.

I can't find profit data on DS, so let's assume it's more than Wii. If $10 per sold, that's $1.55 billion.

Cinemablend, Nintendo profits $40 per Switch sold, or (based on projection of 130 million sold), $5.2 billion.

So, unless these profit numbers are off, it looks like the Switch already passed up the total profitability of Wii/DS for hardware when it hit 56 million Switch's sold.



Dulfite said:

I was curious so I did some numbers. All sold numbers are adjusted for inflation from the midway point of said console's life. All are based on original prices, not taking discounts and new iterations into account, assuming they roughly balance each other out.

Wii - 101.64 mil, $322 each, $32.7b
DS - 154.90 mil, $192.70 each, $29.895b

Total Revenue from hardware - $62.595 billion

Switch - 130mil + with $300 price tag by mid point (2021) is $39 billion.

Total Revenue from hardware - $39 billion

If these numbers are correct, then it would take them selling a whopping 210 million Switches to make hardware revenue from the Wii + DS era. But what about profit?

According to:

Detructoid, Nintendo profited $6 per Wii sold, or $610 million.

I can't find profit data on DS, so let's assume it's more than Wii. If $10 per sold, that's $1.55 billion.

Cinemablend, Nintendo profits $40 per Switch sold, or (based on projection of 130 million sold), $5.2 billion.

So, unless these profit numbers are off, it looks like the Switch already passed up the total profitability of Wii/DS for hardware when it hit 56 million Switch's sold.

At the start the Switch production for each unit was $257, console and dock together at $167 and the joy-cons at $45 each. After the first 10mil units it became even more profitable. They're probably making over $100 profit per unit now.

The last fiscal year ending March 2021 was Nintendo's most profitable ever btw, topping the peak year of the DS and Wii by far, but that's mostly due to software, digital having higher profit margins and DLC.

From the Nintendo Switch Wikipedia article:

Nintendo affirmed that the Switch would be profitable from launch during its 2016 fiscal year earnings report, as the company saw the console as a key earnings driver for 2017 and beyond.[154] Fomalhaut Techno Solutions, a Japanese product teardown firm, estimated that the Switch cost $257 to make compared to its $299 MSRP, with the console and dock at $167 while each Joy-Con costs $45.[155] Kimishima said that they may be able to see further profitability on the Switch when they can achieve volume discounts on components once they reach a level of about 10 million Switch units.



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xMetroid said:

Oh wow that's pretty spot on for the Switch numbers. Congrats guys ! Kinda a shame some people still point out the site for being totally out of touch when the tool has been working pretty darn well for a while now.

Well, maybe that's what you're saying about me. Anyway, I'm waiting for a estimate from Era. There will probably be a big gap.



By the way, the VGC numbers for October that I saw before (November 11th) were like this. What's the difference?

NSW 788920
PS5 415198
XBS 356883



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

By the way, the VGC numbers for October that I saw before (November 11th) were like this. What's the difference?

NSW 788920
PS5 415198
XBS 356883

The monthly figures in the "Hardware Year-on-Year" tool don't always use the same weeks as NPD. VGC takes any week that ends in October as being fully October even if it's Week Ending October 1st.

So for this year:

VGC October Sales = September 25th - October 30th
NPD October Sales = October 2nd - October 30th

Basically those numbers from VGC you posted are 5 weeks of sales, and the NPD figure is 4 weeks of sales.



Zippy6 said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

By the way, the VGC numbers for October that I saw before (November 11th) were like this. What's the difference?

NSW 788920
PS5 415198
XBS 356883

The monthly figures in the "Hardware Year-on-Year" tool don't always use the same weeks as NPD. VGC takes any week that ends in October as being fully October even if it's Week Ending October 1st.

So for this year:

VGC October Sales = September 25th - October 30th
NPD October Sales = October 2nd - October 30th

Basically those numbers from VGC you posted are 5 weeks of sales, and the NPD figure is 4 weeks of sales.

Thank you for your uncomplicated explanation.

I'll be careful next month.



@trunkswd Unfortunate now that i got a job i have way less time, and i already started using VGChartz way less.
I noted a few days ago you made this thread thank you for this, i would appreciate if from now on you (or other people) would keep doing this kind of threads the way that has been done recently.

I will still visit VGChartz some times, good luck and bye everyone. :)